Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major Prediction

FAW ChampionshipWales Wales · South - 12
Caerau (Ely)
0-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Llantwit Major
23/10/2026
Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)
0-2
Finished
Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.25
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap-4.8%
Value Analysis
80%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.25
SignalSTRONGModel80%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Caerau (Ely) Rest
7 days
Llantwit Major Rest
6 days

Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major: the result in context

Llantwit Major beat Caerau (Ely) 2-0 in the FAW Championship on 23 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: Caerau (Ely) had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Llantwit Major.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.7 a game across 7 meetings, with both teams scoring in 5.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
74%1.25
X
15%5.50
2
11%8.25
Double Chance
1X
89%1.06
X2
26%3.32
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

29'C. Kinsella
75'T. M. Stokes

Team Comparison

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)
Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major
1539Elo Rating 1389
1.89Attack 1.41
2.54Defense 1.09
77%Hit Rate 41%

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+150 Elo
📈BTTS Trend71% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)3Wins · 43%
Draws229%
Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major2Wins · 28%
3.7Avg Goals
71%Both teams scored5 of 7
71%3+ goals5 of 7

Previous meetings

FAW Championship28/03/2026
Llantwit MajorCaerau (Ely)
14
FAW Championship12/09/2025
Caerau (Ely)Llantwit Major
00
FAW Championship05/04/2025
Llantwit MajorCaerau (Ely)
10
FAW Championship07/02/2025
Caerau (Ely)Llantwit Major
24
FAW Championship02/02/2024
Caerau (Ely)Llantwit Major
32
FAW Championship30/09/2023
Llantwit MajorCaerau (Ely)
14
FAW Championship12/10/2019
Caerau (Ely)Llantwit Major
22

Recent Form

Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)
7W1D2L
16/10/2026
Caerau (Ely)llanelli AFC
60
W
10/10/2026
Aberystwyth TownCaerau (Ely)
01
W
02/10/2026
Caerau (Ely)Afan Lido
20
W26/09/2026
Cardiff DraconiansCaerau (Ely)
13
W
11/09/2026
Caerau (Ely)llanelli AFC
30
W
31/08/2026
Caerau (Ely)Treowen Stars
32
W
28/08/2026
Baglan DragonsCaerau (Ely)
31
L
21/08/2026
Caerau (Ely)Swansea University
15
L
14/08/2026
Trethomas BluebirdsCaerau (Ely)
24
W
07/08/2026
Caerau (Ely)Ynyshir Albions
11
D
Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major
2W2D6L
17/10/2026
TrefelinLlantwit Major
41
L
10/10/2026
Llantwit MajorPontardawe Town
11
D
06/10/2026
Pontypridd TownLlantwit Major
41
L
02/10/2026
Carmarthen TownLlantwit Major
12
W
26/09/2026
Llantwit Majorllanelli AFC
20
W
12/09/2026
Treowen StarsLlantwit Major
11
D
22/08/2026
Aberystwyth TownLlantwit Major
51
L
15/08/2026
Llantwit MajorBaglan Dragons
01
L
07/08/2026
Afan LidoLlantwit Major
50
L
01/08/2026
Llantwit MajorSwansea University
03
L

League Table

FAW Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town1273232:21+1124WDDWL
2Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town1071224:10+1422WLWDW
3Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)1271423:20+322WLWWW
4Swansea UniversitySwansea University1063132:15+1721LDWDW
5Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions1054119:11+819WWWDD
6Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons1252512:13-117LDWLL
7Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds1244424:21+316LWWLD
8Treowen StarsTreowen Stars1151520:21-116WLLLD
9Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town1243524:26-215LLDLW
10Afan LidoAfan Lido1343621:24-315LWDLD
11Caerphilly AthleticCaerphilly Athletic1242615:21-614LWWLL
12Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town1041517:18-113WDWWL
13Newport CityNewport City1033419:15+412WDLDD
14Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians1033414:17-312WLDDL
15Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major1132612:24-1211LWDLW
16llanelli AFCllanelli AFC1302119:40-312LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town1232:2124
2Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town1024:1022
3Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)1223:2022
4Swansea UniversitySwansea University1032:1521
5Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions1019:1119
6Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons1212:1317
7Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds1224:2116
8Treowen StarsTreowen Stars1120:2116
9Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town1224:2615
10Afan LidoAfan Lido1321:2415
11Caerphilly AthleticCaerphilly Athletic1215:2114
12Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town1017:1813
13Newport CityNewport City1019:1512
14Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians1014:1712
15Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major1112:2411
16llanelli AFCllanelli AFC139:402

Explore more predictions

This match

More FAW Championship matches

All predictions

About the Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major forecast

The forecasts for this FAW Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Caerau (Ely) and Llantwit Major in the FAW Championship table

The table shows a wide gap: Caerau (Ely) are 3rd in the FAW Championship, while Llantwit Major sit 15th, 11 points behind. League goal record so far: Caerau (Ely) 23-20, Llantwit Major 12-24. The full standings are on the FAW Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.