Cienciano vs FBC Melgar Prediction
Peru · Clausura - 1
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco 18/07/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.24
SignalHIGHModel53%SurpriseMediumGap-3.6%
Value Analysis
53%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
2.15
SignalNEUTRALModel50%SurpriseMediumGap+10.2%
Cienciano Rest
7 days
FBC Melgar Rest
18 days
Cienciano vs FBC Melgar: the result in context
FBC Melgar beat Cienciano 3-1 in the Primera División on 18 Jul 2026. That went against recent form: Cienciano had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for FBC Melgar.
FBC Melgar have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.2 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
151%1.92
X26%3.50
223%3.72
Double Chance
1X77%1.24
X249%1.85
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.64
No46%2.13
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.48 + 1.02 = 2.50
Over 1.571%1.22
Over 2.548%1.73
Over 3.530%2.78
Under 1.529%3.85
Under 2.552%2.00
Under 3.570%1.38
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.4 = 9.1
Over 8.552%1.83
Over 9.537%2.39
Over 10.528%3.30
Under 8.548%1.84
Under 9.563%1.48
Under 10.572%1.25
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.2 = 4.3
Over 3.560%-
Over 4.542%-
Under 3.540%-
Under 4.558%-
Match Events
6'N. Bandiera INA. Robles out
11'N. QuagliataFoul
22'A. HohbergAssist: G. Barreto
28'A. HohbergUnsportsmanlike conduct
36'N. Quagliata(Penalty)
59'A. Robles INC. Cabello out
61'C. BordacaharFoul
61'N. Cabanillas INJ. Vidales out
65'K. Becerra INR. Aguilar out
66'C. Garces INM. Succar out
75'C. Bordacahar INJ. Caceres out
77'W. TandazoFoul
80'J. CaceresAssist: B. Cuesta
88'B. Cuesta INA. Deneumostier out
90'M. Zegarra INJ. D'Arrigo out
90'M. RondelliUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+1'L. GonzalezDelay of game
90+5'J. VidalesAssist: M. Lazo
90+8'M. MartinichFoul
Lineups
CiencianoFBC Melgar
4-2-3-1Coach: Miguel RondelliAvg ratingAvg rating
31Í. Espinoza
13C. Nunez
4M. Amondarain
3K. Becerra
7C. Souza
5S. Arias
88G. Barreto
16M. Martinich
10A. Hohberg
11N. Bandiera
C21C. Garcés
21J. Cabezudo
33M. Lazo
23J. Escobar
3L. González
27N. Cabanillas
25K. Minda
24W. Tandazo
7C. Bordacahar
10N. Quagliata
45M. Zegarra
C9B. CuestaCienciano Substitutes
29Ademar Robles6'for N. Bandiera59'for C. Cabello
22Carlos Cabello59'replaced by A. Robles
26Rotceh Aguilar65'for K. Becerra
19Matías Succar66'for C. Garces
1Gonzalo Falcón
27Alonso Yovera
14Sebastian Cavero
8Gonzalo Aguirre
18Didier La Torre
FBC Melgar Substitutes
11Jhonny Vidales61'for N. Cabanillas90+5'
16Jefferson Caceres75'for C. Bordacahar80'
5Alec Deneumostier88'for B. Cuesta
80Jhamir D'Arrigo90'for M. Zegarra
12Carlos Cáceda
90Jesus Alcantar
14Yimy Gamero
26Marcos Portillo
8Lautaro Guzmán
Match Stats
CiencianoFBC Melgar 34%Ball Possession66%
2Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
14Total Shots20
5Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal10
7Shots Inside Box16
7Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots6
5Fouls10
0Offsides4
2Goalkeeper Saves4
260Total Passes524
183Passes Accurate449
70%Pass Accuracy86%
Team Comparison
CiencianoFBC Melgar1608Elo Rating 1690
1.70Attack 1.98
2.17Defense 1.64
63%Hit Rate 42%
20.1Shots per Game 14.9
5.7Shots on Target 6.2
6.0Corners per Game 5.4
2.1Cards per Game 2.1
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
Game State Tendencies
Cienciano- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FBC Melgar- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Cienciano1Wins · 10%Draws220%
FBC Melgar7Wins · 70%
7Wins · 70%2.2Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
06/03/2026CiencianoFBC Melgar5141
01/02/2026FBC MelgarCienciano20
03/10/2025FBC MelgarCienciano20
11/05/2025CiencianoFBC Melgar12
26/08/2024CiencianoFBC Melgar31
30/03/2024FBC MelgarCienciano20
10/09/2023CiencianoFBC Melgar01
15/04/2023FBC MelgarCienciano10
17/09/2022CiencianoFBC Melgar22
30/04/2022FBC MelgarCienciano10
Recent Form
Cienciano5W2D3L
10/07/2026Cienciano
ADT
CiencianoADT23
L29/06/2026
CuscoCienciano
CuscoCienciano12
W22/06/2026Cienciano
Deportivo Garcilaso
14/06/2026CiencianoDeportivo Garcilaso21
W
Deportivo BinacionalCienciano02
W01/06/2026Cienciano
Sporting Cristal
CiencianoSporting Cristal32
W28/05/2026Cienciano
Juventud
CiencianoJuventud11
D24/05/2026
Sport HuancayoCienciano
Sport HuancayoCienciano22
D22/05/2026
Atletico-MGCienciano
Atletico-MGCienciano20
L17/05/2026Cienciano
Alianza Lima
CiencianoAlianza Lima01
L09/05/2026
Atletico GrauCienciano
Atletico GrauCienciano12
WFBC Melgar4W4D2L
29/06/2026FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
FBC MelgarUCV Moquegua00
D18/06/2026
LDU de QuitoFBC Melgar
LDU de QuitoFBC Melgar00
D12/06/2026
Tacna HeroicaFBC Melgar
Tacna HeroicaFBC Melgar32
L31/05/2026FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
FBC MelgarAlianza Atletico31
W22/05/2026
Juan Pablo II CollegeFBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II CollegeFBC Melgar11
D16/05/2026FBC MelgarSport Huancayo
FBC MelgarSport Huancayo41
W10/05/2026
Comerciantes UnidosFBC Melgar
Comerciantes UnidosFBC Melgar11
D04/05/2026FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
FBC MelgarUTC Cajamarca20
W28/04/2026Deportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar
Deportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar10
L20/04/2026FBC Melgar
Universitario
FBC MelgarUniversitario21
WLeague Table
Primera Division: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 52:23 | +29 | 65 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Universitario | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 55:35 | +20 | 59 | DWLWL |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 54:37 | +17 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 50:35 | +15 | 54 | WWWWL |
| 5 | Cusco | 32 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 46:44 | +2 | 51 | LDDWW |
| 6 | Sporting Cristal | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 62:47 | +15 | 50 | LDDLL |
| 7 | Cienciano | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 53:43 | +10 | 50 | WWDLW |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 49:46 | +3 | 49 | WLWWL |
| 9 | Sport Huancayo | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46:48 | -2 | 47 | LWLLW |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 39:51 | -12 | 47 | WDLLW |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 35:33 | +2 | 44 | DLDWL |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 47:57 | -10 | 41 | LLLDD |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 44:47 | -3 | 36 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 29:41 | -12 | 34 | WLLLW |
| 15 | ADT | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 31 | WDWWD |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 25:46 | -21 | 29 | LDLWL |
| 17 |  FC Cajamarca | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 44:65 | -21 | 28 | WWWLL |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38:58 | -20 | 18 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 31 | 52:23 | 65 |
| 2 | Universitario | 31 | 55:35 | 59 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 32 | 54:37 | 54 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 32 | 50:35 | 54 |
| 5 | Cusco | 32 | 46:44 | 51 |
| 6 | Sporting Cristal | 32 | 62:47 | 50 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 31 | 53:43 | 50 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 32 | 49:46 | 49 |
| 9 | Sport Huancayo | 32 | 46:48 | 47 |
| 10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 32 | 39:51 | 47 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 31 | 35:33 | 44 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 32 | 47:57 | 41 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 32 | 44:47 | 36 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 32 | 29:41 | 34 |
| 15 | ADT | 32 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 32 | 25:46 | 29 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 32 | 44:65 | 28 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 32 | 38:58 | 18 |
Primera Division: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | +22 | 40 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 34 | WDLLW |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | +12 | 33 | WWDLW |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | +9 | 29 | DWLWL |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | +9 | 28 | WDWLW |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 27 | LDDWW |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 26 | WWWWL |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | WLWWL |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 21 | LDLWW |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | +1 | 20 | WDWWD |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 | DLDWL |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 | LDDLL |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | -5 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 18 | LDLWL |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 17 | WWWLL |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | -6 | 16 | WLLLW |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | -10 | 16 | LWLLW |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | -18 | 16 | LLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 30:8 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 25:21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 34:22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 24:15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 29:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 21:24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 21:18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 18:20 | 21 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 22:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 15:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 28:30 | 19 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 21:26 | 18 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 17:24 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 23:28 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 21:31 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 22:40 | 16 |
Primera Division: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 34:17 | +17 | 31 | LDDLL |
| 2 | Sport Huancayo | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 25:17 | +8 | 31 | LWLLW |
| 3 | Universitario | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 31:20 | +11 | 30 | DWLWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 29:17 | +12 | 28 | WWWWL |
| 5 | Alianza Atletico | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 29:28 | +1 | 28 | WLWWL |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 25:17 | +8 | 26 | WDWLW |
| 7 | Juan Pablo II College | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 25:17 | +8 | 25 | LLLDD |
| 8 | Alianza Lima | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22:15 | +7 | 25 | DWWWW |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20:14 | +6 | 24 | DLDWL |
| 10 | Cusco | 15 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 25:20 | +5 | 24 | LDDWW |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 17:23 | -6 | 18 | WLLLW |
| 12 | Cienciano | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19:21 | -2 | 17 | WWDLW |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 26:27 | -1 | 15 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14:30 | -16 | 13 | WDLLW |
| 15 | ADT | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13:26 | -13 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8:22 | -14 | 11 | LDLWL |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21:37 | -16 | 11 | WWWLL |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 17:32 | -15 | 5 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 15 | 34:17 | 31 |
| 2 | Sport Huancayo | 15 | 25:17 | 31 |
| 3 | Universitario | 14 | 31:20 | 30 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 15 | 29:17 | 28 |
| 5 | Alianza Atletico | 15 | 29:28 | 28 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 15 | 25:17 | 26 |
| 7 | Juan Pablo II College | 15 | 25:17 | 25 |
| 8 | Alianza Lima | 14 | 22:15 | 25 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 14 | 20:14 | 24 |
| 10 | Cusco | 15 | 25:20 | 24 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 15 | 17:23 | 18 |
| 12 | Cienciano | 14 | 19:21 | 17 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 15 | 26:27 | 15 |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 15 | 14:30 | 13 |
| 15 | ADT | 15 | 13:26 | 11 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 15 | 8:22 | 11 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 15 | 21:37 | 11 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 15 | 17:32 | 5 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera División matches
- FC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College 17/07/26
- Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso 17/07/26
- UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos 18/07/26
- ADT vs Universitario 18/07/26
- Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca 18/07/26
- Cusco vs Alianza Atletico 19/07/26
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Sport Boys 19/07/26
- Alianza Lima vs Sport Huancayo 20/07/26
About the Cienciano vs FBC Melgar forecast
As a derby, this Primera División meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Cienciano and FBC Melgar in the Primera División table
In the Primera División table, FBC Melgar are 3rd and Cienciano 7th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Cienciano 53-43, FBC Melgar 54-37. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
FBC Melgar have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.