DC United vs Toronto FC Prediction

DC United
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Toronto FC
Audi Field, Washington·S. Boiko 26/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.32
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-2.3%
Value Analysis
76%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.50
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+14.3%
DC United Rest
2 days
Toronto FC Rest
3 days

DC United vs Toronto FC: result, form and history

DC United beat Toronto FC 2-1 in the Major League Soccer on 26 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 4.1 goals, and both sides scored in 9 of them. DC United tend to win more corners, 6.6 a game to 4.3 for Toronto FC.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
46%2.13
X
27%3.51
2
27%3.25
Double Chance
1X
73%1.32
X2
54%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
75%1.67
No
25%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.94 + 1.17 = 3.11
Over 1.5
80%1.25
Over 2.5
59%1.83
Over 3.5
36%3.10
Under 1.5
20%3.75
Under 2.5
41%1.98
Under 3.5
64%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.1 = 9.7
Over 8.5
60%1.42
Over 9.5
47%1.68
Over 10.5
36%2.06
Under 8.5
40%2.71
Under 9.5
53%2.08
Under 10.5
64%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 2.3 = 4.8
Over 3.5
71%1.34
Over 4.5
54%2.02
Under 3.5
29%2.90
Under 4.5
46%1.75

Match Events

41'K. RowlesAssist: K. Kurokawa
46'Z. Monlouis INA. Coello out
53'L. Munteanu
54'D. Etienne IND. Mihailovic out
54'E. Aristizabal IND. Kerr out
65'Peglow INJ. Stroud out
65'J. Hopkins INM. Peltola out
76'T. Corbeanu
80'B. Servania INH. Kijima out
80'K. Rowles INS. Nealis out
85'L. Munteanu INN. Ordaz out
88'J. Osorio
90+2'T. Corbeanu INM. Henry out
90+10'T. Baribo(Penalty)

Lineups

DC United
4-4-2Coach: Rene Weiler
Toronto FC
3-4-2-1Coach: Robin Fraser
Avg rating6.96
Avg rating6.80
Sean Johnson7.61S. Johnson
Silvan Hefti7.75S. Hefti
Lucas BartlettC6.23L. Bartlett
Kye Rowles7.915K. Rowles
Keisuke Kurokawa7.96K. Kurokawa
Jackson Hopkins6.625J. Hopkins
Brandon Servania6.523B. Servania
Andre Dozzell8.021A. Dozzell
João Peglow7.07J. Peglow
Louis Munteanu6.311L. Munteanu
Tai Baribo7.39T. Baribo
Luka Gavran7.61L. Gavran
Zane Monlouis6.512Z. Monlouis
Walker Zimmerman7.925W. Zimmerman
Jackson Gilman6.038J. Gilman
Kobe Franklin6.719K. Franklin
Richie Laryea6.922R. Laryea
Jonathan OsorioC6.221J. Osorio
Dániel Sallói6.520D. Sallói
Theo Corbeanu8.37T. Corbeanu
Derrick Etienne6.511D. Etienne
Emilio Aristizábal6.317E. Aristizábal

DC United Substitutes

26Alex Bono
13Sean Nealis80'for K. Rowles6.6
27Nikola Markovic
4Matti Peltola65'for J. Hopkins6.2
8Jared Stroud65'for Peglow6.5
77Hosei Kijima80'for B. Servania6.7
22Nathan Ordaz85'for L. Munteanu6.3
32Oscar Avilez

Toronto FC Substitutes

23William Yarbrough
77Adisa De Rosario
44Raheem Edwards
14Alonso Coello46'for Z. Monlouis7.0
10Đorđe Mihailović54'for D. Etienne6.9
78Malik Henry90+2'for T. Corbeanu6.2
99Jules-Anthony Vilsaint
29Deandre Kerr54'for E. Aristizabal6.5

Match Stats

DC UnitedToronto FC
45%Ball Possession55%
8Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards1
17Total Shots13
8Shots on Goal7
5Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box7
8Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots3
14Fouls7
0Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves6
315Total Passes402
248Passes Accurate335
79%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

DC UnitedDC United
Toronto FCToronto FC
1487Elo Rating 1553
1.31Attack 1.91
0.26Defense 0.89
19%Hit Rate 39%
13.3Shots per Game 13.8
3.8Shots on Target 5.4
6.6Corners per Game 4.3
2.0Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.11 goals
📈BTTS Trend90% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

DC UnitedDC United
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.3 in second half)
Toronto FCToronto FC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

DC UnitedDC United4Wins · 40%
Draws330%
Toronto FCToronto FC3Wins · 30%
4.1Avg Goals
90%Both teams scored9 of 10
90%3+ goals9 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer10/05/2025
Toronto FCDC United
20
Major League Soccer23/02/2025
DC UnitedToronto FC
22
Major League Soccer01/09/2024
Toronto FCDC United
13
Major League Soccer02/06/2024
DC UnitedToronto FC
22
Major League Soccer28/05/2023
Toronto FCDC United
21
Major League Soccer26/02/2023
DC UnitedToronto FC
32
Major League Soccer22/05/2022
DC UnitedToronto FC
22
Major League Soccer19/03/2022
Toronto FCDC United
21
Major League Soccer07/11/2021
Toronto FCDC United
13
Major League Soccer03/07/2021
DC UnitedToronto FC
71

Recent Form

DC UnitedDC United
2W6D2L
23/07/2026
Houston DynamoDC United
11
D
24/05/2026
DC UnitedCF Montreal
44
D
17/05/2026
DC UnitedSt. Louis City
11
D
14/05/2026
DC UnitedChicago Fire
13
L
10/05/2026
Nashville SCDC United
22
D
03/05/2026
New York City FCDC United
02
W
26/04/2026
DC UnitedOrlando City SC
32
W
23/04/2026
New York Red BullsDC United
44
D
19/04/2026
Philadelphia UnionDC United
00
D
16/04/2026
DC UnitedOne Knoxville
5262
L
Toronto FCToronto FC
0W5D5L
23/07/2026
New England RevolutionToronto FC
00
D
17/07/2026
CF MontrealToronto FC
00
D
24/05/2026
Chicago FireToronto FC
21
L
17/05/2026
CharlotteToronto FC
31
L
09/05/2026
Toronto FCInter Miami
24
L
06/05/2026
Toronto FCAtlético Ottawa
13
L
02/05/2026
Toronto FCSan Jose Earthquakes
11
D
25/04/2026
Toronto FCAtlanta United FC
12
L
23/04/2026
Toronto FCPhiladelphia Union
33
D
18/04/2026
Toronto FCAustin
33
D

Referee Profile

S. Boiko47 matches analysed

4.39Cards per match
4.10Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
21.0Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 33% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC32218366:23+4371DWDWW
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution321841054:44+1058WWWWL
3Inter MiamiInter Miami321511675:55+2056DLWWW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire321571057:48+952DWLLW
5CharlotteCharlotte321481059:48+1150WLDLW
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union321381162:50+1247DLDWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC321271362:74-1243DDWDW
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3211101166:73-743DWWLL
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew321251552:49+341WWWWL
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls321161543:59-1639LWLLW
11Toronto FCToronto FC329121150:60-1039WLWDW
12New York City FCNew York City FC329111247:44+338WDDLL
13DC UnitedDC United327121339:57-1833LLLLW
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC32861840:56-1630LLLWL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal32671936:66-3025LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3266:2371
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3254:4458
3Inter MiamiInter Miami3275:5556
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3257:4852
5CharlotteCharlotte3259:4850
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3262:5047
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3262:7443
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3266:7343
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3252:4941
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3243:5939
11Toronto FCToronto FC3250:6039
12New York City FCNew York City FC3247:4438
13DC UnitedDC United3239:5733
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3240:5630
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3236:6625
Promotion

About the DC United vs Toronto FC forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

DC United and Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer table

Toronto FC and DC United are close in the Major League Soccer table, 11th and 13th, with 6 points between them. League goal record so far: DC United 39-57, Toronto FC 50-60. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.