Dundalk vs Drogheda United Prediction

Dundalk
1-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Drogheda United
Oriel Park, Dundalk·R. Harvey 10/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
85%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.17
SignalSTRONGModel62%SurpriseMediumGap-0.2%
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.49
SignalHIGHModel54%SurpriseMediumGap+12.2%
Dundalk Rest
6 days
Drogheda United Rest
7 days

Dundalk vs Drogheda United: result, form and history

Drogheda United beat Dundalk 2-1 in the Premier Division on 10 Jul 2026. That went against recent form: Dundalk had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Drogheda United.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 8 of them. Referee R. Harvey averages 5.56 cards a game, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.65
X
23%3.92
2
15%4.55
Double Chance
1X
85%1.17
X2
38%2.13
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%1.62
No
51%2.16
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.41 + 1.02 = 2.43
Over 1.5
70%1.18
Over 2.5
47%1.62
Over 3.5
25%2.48
Under 1.5
30%4.42
Under 2.5
53%2.25
Under 3.5
75%1.49
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

29'G. Arubi
45+4'C. KilduffUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'L. Burney INJ. Bolger out
50'J. BucknorFoul
63'K. Buckley INS. Tracey out
63'T. Wilson IND. McDaid out
63'J. Wilson INT. Clarke out
69'T. ClarkeFoul
70'B. Kavanagh INJ. Godden out
73'S. Farrell
76'M. Doyle INR. Markey out
80'M. Animasahun INH. Groome out
85'S. Farrell

Match Stats

DundalkDrogheda United
60%Ball Possession40%
10Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards1
14Total Shots16
4Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal7
8Shots Inside Box10
6Shots Outside Box6
6Blocked Shots4
13Fouls4
1Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves3
394Total Passes266
284Passes Accurate155
72%Pass Accuracy58%

Team Comparison

DundalkDundalk
Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United
1493Elo Rating 1509
1.02Attack 1.37
0.78Defense 1.13
0%Hit Rate 37%
14.0Shots per Game 8.9
4.9Shots on Target 2.6
5.3Corners per Game 3.1
1.6Cards per Game 1.1

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

DundalkDundalk
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

DundalkDundalk4Wins · 40%
Draws440%
Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United2Wins · 20%
2.8Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier Division22/05/2026
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
11
Premier Division20/02/2026
DundalkDrogheda United
11
Premier Division01/11/2024
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
00
FAI Cup19/07/2024
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
21
Premier Division12/07/2024
DundalkDrogheda United
42
Premier Division06/05/2024
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
21
Premier Division01/04/2024
DundalkDrogheda United
00
Premier Division29/09/2023
DundalkDrogheda United
31
Premier Division23/06/2023
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
12
Premier Division28/04/2023
DundalkDrogheda United
32

Recent Form

DundalkDundalk
4W2D4L
03/07/2026
ShelbourneDundalk
21
L
26/06/2026
DundalkWaterford
23
L
19/06/2026
BohemiansDundalk
12
W
12/06/2026
Galway UnitedDundalk
01
W
29/05/2026
DundalkDerry City
21
W
22/05/2026
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
11
D
15/05/2026
DundalkShamrock Rovers
10
W
08/05/2026
DundalkBohemians
13
L
04/05/2026
WaterfordDundalk
33
D
01/05/2026
DundalkShelbourne
12
L
Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United
1W3D6L
03/07/2026
Drogheda UnitedBohemians
02
L
26/06/2026
Derry CityDrogheda United
20
L
19/06/2026
Drogheda UnitedShelbourne
22
D
12/06/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Drogheda United
20
L
29/05/2026
Drogheda UnitedWaterford
33
D
22/05/2026
Drogheda UnitedDundalk
11
D
18/05/2026
WaterfordDrogheda United
21
L
15/05/2026
BohemiansDrogheda United
21
L
08/05/2026
Drogheda UnitedDerry City
10
W
04/05/2026
Shamrock RoversDrogheda United
41
L

Referee Profile

R. Harvey151 matches

5.56Cards per match
5.27Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
24.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

R. Harvey5.56
Other referees4.88

5.56 cards a match, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.88).

Cards come from 75 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier Division 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers35208758:35+2368WLWWW
2BohemiansBohemians35188960:42+1862LWLWW
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.35179953:28+2560DLLWW
4ShelbourneShelbourne3512131050:47+349WWWDW
5Derry CityDerry City3511141048:45+347WWLWD
6Galway UnitedGalway United3510121346:51-542DLWDL
7DundalkDundalk3510121352:58-642LDLLL
8WaterfordWaterford359131351:59-840WWLLD
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United359101642:57-1537LWLLW
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers35592126:64-3824LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers3558:3568
2BohemiansBohemians3560:4262
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.3553:2860
4ShelbourneShelbourne3550:4749
5Derry CityDerry City3548:4547
6Galway UnitedGalway United3546:5142
7DundalkDundalk3552:5842
8WaterfordWaterford3551:5940
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United3542:5737
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers3526:6424
Relegation

About the Dundalk vs Drogheda United forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Dundalk and Drogheda United in the Premier Division table

Dundalk and Drogheda United are close in the Premier Division table, 7th and 9th, with 5 points between them. League goal record so far: Dundalk 52-58, Drogheda United 42-57. The full standings are on the Premier Division Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.