El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC Prediction

Southwest University Park·C. Rodriguez 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.13
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseMediumGap-7.2%
El Paso Locomotive Rest
7 days
Orange County SC Rest
6 days

El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC: the result in context

El Paso Locomotive beat Orange County SC 2-1 in the USL Championship on 11 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: El Paso Locomotive had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Orange County SC.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.7 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
59%1.57
X
22%4.00
2
19%4.64
Double Chance
1X
81%1.13
X2
41%2.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.72
No
46%1.99
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.84 + 1.02 = 2.86
Over 1.5
78%1.20
Over 2.5
56%1.67
Over 3.5
34%2.63
Under 1.5
22%4.03
Under 2.5
44%2.06
Under 3.5
66%1.41
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

5'Tony Alfaro
17'O. Sylla
31'A. MorenoAssist: R. Ruiz
33'A. Romero
43'N. Benalcazar
43'B. FarkarlunAssist: E. Calvillo
46'E. Calvillo INR. Rubin out
46'Tony Alfaro INN. Dollenmayer out
48'N. Ciotta INF. O'Brien out
51'C. HegardtAssist: M. Palomino
54'A. Mendez
63'R. Avila INZ. Jones out
68'K. Partida INB. Cambridge out
70'B. Farkarlun INN. Cardona out
83'A. Mendez IND. Gomez out
86'R. Doghman INJ. Johnson out
90+3'Z. Jones

Team Comparison

El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive
Orange County SCOrange County SC
1511Elo Rating 1385
0.70Attack 1.00
1.67Defense 1.05
19%Hit Rate 14%

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+126 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.86 goals

Game State Tendencies

El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Orange County SCOrange County SC
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive3Wins · 30%
Draws330%
Orange County SCOrange County SC4Wins · 40%
1.7Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored2 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

USL Championship02/08/2026
Orange County SCEl Paso Locomotive
20
USL Championship05/10/2025
Orange County SCEl Paso Locomotive
00
USL Championship15/06/2025
El Paso LocomotiveOrange County SC
03
USL Championship17/10/2024
El Paso LocomotiveOrange County SC
02
USL Championship18/08/2024
Orange County SCEl Paso Locomotive
01
USL Championship22/10/2023
Orange County SCEl Paso Locomotive
10
USL Championship10/09/2023
Orange County SCEl Paso Locomotive
00
USL Championship09/04/2023
El Paso LocomotiveOrange County SC
10
USL Championship09/10/2022
El Paso LocomotiveOrange County SC
21
USL Championship22/05/2022
Orange County SCEl Paso Locomotive
22

Recent Form

El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive
8W1D1L
04/10/2026
LexingtonEl Paso Locomotive
31
L
26/09/2026
El Paso LocomotiveFC Tulsa
11
D
20/09/2026
Phoenix RisingEl Paso Locomotive
13
W
13/09/2026
Louisville CityEl Paso Locomotive
12
W
30/08/2026
El Paso LocomotiveLoudoun United
41
W
27/08/2026
El Paso LocomotivePittsburgh Riverhounds
21
W
23/08/2026
Colorado SpringsEl Paso Locomotive
01
W
16/08/2026
San AntonioEl Paso Locomotive
03
W
09/08/2026
El Paso LocomotiveOakland Roots
10
W
06/08/2026
El Paso LocomotiveMonterey Bay
10
W
Orange County SCOrange County SC
2W2D6L
04/10/2026
Orange County SCMonterey Bay
12
L
27/09/2026
Orange County SCPittsburgh Riverhounds
10
W
20/09/2026
LexingtonOrange County SC
60
L
13/09/2026
Orange County SCLas Vegas Lights
02
L
06/09/2026
Orange County SCSacramento Republic
11
D
30/08/2026
Oakland RootsOrange County SC
11
D
23/08/2026
Orange County SCFC Tulsa
15
L
16/08/2026
Orange County SCLouisville City
23
L
09/08/2026
Orange County SCTampa Bay Rowdies
03
L
02/08/2026
Orange County SCEl Paso Locomotive
20
W

League Table

USL Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United30157845:34+1152WLWWL
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic301312542:28+1451WWDDW
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive301551048:38+1050LLWLD
4LexingtonLexington301461057:39+1848DWDWW
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs30138944:38+647WWDDD
6San AntonioSan Antonio301112732:30+245WWDLD
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa301110934:31+343LLDDW
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3010101045:46-140DWWLL
9Orange County SCOrange County SC301091139:49-1039LLLLW
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots309111039:40-138LWDDW
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights301061441:48-736LLLWL
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay30661832:52-2024WLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United3045:3452
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic3042:2851
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive3048:3850
4LexingtonLexington3057:3948
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs3044:3847
6San AntonioSan Antonio3032:3045
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa3034:3143
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3045:4640
9Orange County SCOrange County SC3039:4939
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots3039:4038
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights3041:4836
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay3032:5224

About the El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC forecast

The forecasts for this USL Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC in the USL Championship table

The table shows a wide gap: El Paso Locomotive are 3rd in the USL Championship, while Orange County SC sit 9th, 11 points behind. League goal record so far: El Paso Locomotive 48-38, Orange County SC 39-49. The full standings are on the USL Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.