New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay Prediction

Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park·C. Hernandez 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.14
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseMediumGap-6.6%
New Mexico United Rest
6 days
Monterey Bay Rest
6 days

New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay: result, form and history

New Mexico United beat Monterey Bay 3-1 in the USL Championship on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 9 previous meetings averaged 3.2 goals, and both sides scored in 6 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.60
X
21%4.10
2
19%4.43
Double Chance
1X
81%1.14
X2
40%2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.53
No
42%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.18 + 0.96 = 3.14
Over 1.5
82%1.14
Over 2.5
62%1.50
Over 3.5
40%2.22
Under 1.5
18%4.88
Under 2.5
38%2.38
Under 3.5
60%1.59
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

20'C. DennisAssist: Z. Bailey
29'C. DennisAssist: N. Reid-Stephen
31'D. Sanchez
46'Q. Elliot INR. Nakamura out
56'G. HurstAssist: N. Reid-Stephen
58'S. LletgetAssist: I. Paul
59'Z. Farnsworth
61'S. Ritchie
61'V. Noel INC. Wilkerson out
63'N. Ross INJacob Montes out
70'C. Dennis INJ. Melto Quiah out
70'G. Hurst INJ. Rennicks out
75'F. Barajas INF. Canete out
75'I. Paul IND. Otoya out
80'N. Reid-Stephen INC. Nava out
80'C. Gloster INJ. LaCava out
83'J. Garcia INE. Blancas out
90+1'R. Nakamura

Team Comparison

New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United
Monterey BayMonterey Bay
1538Elo Rating 1316
1.36Attack 0.95
1.72Defense 1.21
42%Hit Rate 19%

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+222 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.14 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United
  • No tendency data available
Monterey BayMonterey Bay
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United5Wins · 56%
Draws222%
Monterey BayMonterey Bay2Wins · 22%
3.2Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored6 of 9
44%3+ goals4 of 9

Previous meetings

USL Championship09/08/2026
Monterey BayNew Mexico United
25
USL Championship21/09/2025
Monterey BayNew Mexico United
11
USL Championship24/04/2025
New Mexico UnitedMonterey Bay
10
USL Championship18/08/2024
New Mexico UnitedMonterey Bay
32
USL Championship03/06/2024
Monterey BayNew Mexico United
10
USL Championship14/05/2023
New Mexico UnitedMonterey Bay
21
USL Championship09/04/2023
Monterey BayNew Mexico United
42
USL Championship21/08/2022
New Mexico UnitedMonterey Bay
20
USL Championship03/07/2022
Monterey BayNew Mexico United
11

Recent Form

New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United
3W4D3L
05/10/2026
New Mexico UnitedPhoenix Rising
21
W
01/10/2026
FC TulsaNew Mexico United
10
L
27/09/2026
New Mexico UnitedSacramento Republic
23
L
20/09/2026
Colorado SpringsNew Mexico United
00
D
17/09/2026
Birmingham LegionNew Mexico United
44
D
12/09/2026
New Mexico UnitedIndy Eleven
22
D
06/09/2026
Las Vegas LightsNew Mexico United
12
W
30/08/2026
New Mexico UnitedSan Antonio
12
L
27/08/2026
New Mexico UnitedLexington
21
W
23/08/2026
Loudoun UnitedNew Mexico United
00
D
Monterey BayMonterey Bay
1W3D6L
04/10/2026
Orange County SCMonterey Bay
12
W
27/09/2026
Monterey BayLexington
23
L
20/09/2026
Charleston BatteryMonterey Bay
10
L
06/09/2026
Monterey BayPhoenix Rising
11
D
30/08/2026
Monterey BaySacramento Republic
11
D
23/08/2026
Rhode IslandMonterey Bay
31
L
16/08/2026
Oakland RootsMonterey Bay
11
D
09/08/2026
Monterey BayNew Mexico United
25
L
06/08/2026
El Paso LocomotiveMonterey Bay
10
L
02/08/2026
LexingtonMonterey Bay
32
L

League Table

USL Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United30157845:34+1152WLWWL
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic301312542:28+1451WWDDW
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive301551048:38+1050LLWLD
4LexingtonLexington301461057:39+1848DWDWW
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs30138944:38+647WWDDD
6San AntonioSan Antonio301112732:30+245WWDLD
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa301110934:31+343LLDDW
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3010101045:46-140DWWLL
9Orange County SCOrange County SC301091139:49-1039LLLLW
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots309111039:40-138LWDDW
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights301061441:48-736LLLWL
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay30661832:52-2024WLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United3045:3452
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic3042:2851
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive3048:3850
4LexingtonLexington3057:3948
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs3044:3847
6San AntonioSan Antonio3032:3045
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa3034:3143
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3045:4640
9Orange County SCOrange County SC3039:4939
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots3039:4038
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights3041:4836
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay3032:5224

About the New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

New Mexico United and Monterey Bay in the USL Championship table

The table shows a wide gap: New Mexico United are 1st in the USL Championship, while Monterey Bay sit 12th, 28 points behind. League goal record so far: New Mexico United 45-34, Monterey Bay 32-52. The full standings are on the USL Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.