Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive Prediction

Toyota Stadium·B. Jensen 04/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-6.7%
Lexington Rest
6 days
El Paso Locomotive Rest
7 days

Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive: result, form and history

Lexington beat El Paso Locomotive 3-1 in the USL Championship on 4 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 3 previous meetings averaged 3.7 goals, and both sides scored in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
48%1.90
X
26%3.60
2
26%3.50
Double Chance
1X
74%1.25
X2
52%1.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.57
No
42%2.21
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.61 + 1.27 = 2.88
Over 1.5
78%1.20
Over 2.5
56%1.68
Over 3.5
35%2.61
Under 1.5
22%4.21
Under 2.5
44%2.13
Under 3.5
65%1.44
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

17'Gabriel Torres ING. Diaz out
24'A. OrtizSerious foul
32'X. ZengueAssist: M. Fry
37'A. MorenoAssist: R. Avila
45+2'J. GonzalezUnsportsmanlike conduct
57'Nick Firmino INB. P. Rodrigues out
62'P. GoodrumAssist: B. Ferri
64'J. GreeneFoul
66'B. P. Rodrigues
67'R. Coronado IND. Gomez out
67'K. Hoban INK. Twumasi out
69'M. Fry INM. Yosef out
70'J. Greene INM. Muir out
82'R. Avila INC. Fernandez out
82'A. Mendez INO. Mora out
83'B. Ferri INM. Tschantret out
83'P. Goodrum INT. Scott out

Team Comparison

LexingtonLexington
El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive
1541Elo Rating 1524
3.27Attack 1.24
1.67Defense 1.61
77%Hit Rate 37%

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.88 goals
📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

LexingtonLexington
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 1.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

LexingtonLexington1Wins · 33%
Draws00%
El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive2Wins · 67%
3.7Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored3 of 3
100%3+ goals3 of 3

Previous meetings

USL Championship31/05/2026
El Paso LocomotiveLexington
14
USL Championship12/10/2025
LexingtonEl Paso Locomotive
12
USL Championship06/04/2025
El Paso LocomotiveLexington
21

Recent Form

LexingtonLexington
6W0D4L
27/09/2026
Monterey BayLexington
23
W
20/09/2026
LexingtonOrange County SC
60
W
13/09/2026
Oakland RootsLexington
14
W
06/09/2026
Sporting JAXLexington
32
L
30/08/2026
LexingtonColorado Springs
01
L
27/08/2026
New Mexico UnitedLexington
21
L
23/08/2026
LexingtonLas Vegas Lights
20
W
16/08/2026
Sacramento RepublicLexington
10
L
09/08/2026
LexingtonPhoenix Rising
10
W
02/08/2026
LexingtonMonterey Bay
32
W
El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive
8W1D1L
26/09/2026
El Paso LocomotiveFC Tulsa
11
D
20/09/2026
Phoenix RisingEl Paso Locomotive
13
W
13/09/2026
Louisville CityEl Paso Locomotive
12
W
30/08/2026
El Paso LocomotiveLoudoun United
41
W
27/08/2026
El Paso LocomotivePittsburgh Riverhounds
21
W
23/08/2026
Colorado SpringsEl Paso Locomotive
01
W
16/08/2026
San AntonioEl Paso Locomotive
03
W
09/08/2026
El Paso LocomotiveOakland Roots
10
W
06/08/2026
El Paso LocomotiveMonterey Bay
10
W
02/08/2026
Orange County SCEl Paso Locomotive
20
L

League Table

USL Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United30157845:34+1152WLWWL
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic301312542:28+1451WWDDW
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive301551048:38+1050LLWLD
4LexingtonLexington301461057:39+1848DWDWW
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs30138944:38+647WWDDD
6San AntonioSan Antonio301112732:30+245WWDLD
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa301110934:31+343LLDDW
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3010101045:46-140DWWLL
9Orange County SCOrange County SC301091139:49-1039LLLLW
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots309111039:40-138LWDDW
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights301061441:48-736LLLWL
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay30661832:52-2024WLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United3045:3452
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic3042:2851
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive3048:3850
4LexingtonLexington3057:3948
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs3044:3847
6San AntonioSan Antonio3032:3045
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa3034:3143
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3045:4640
9Orange County SCOrange County SC3039:4939
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots3039:4038
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights3041:4836
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay3032:5224

About the Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lexington and El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: El Paso Locomotive are 3rd in the USL Championship, 2 points ahead of Lexington in 4th. League goal record so far: Lexington 57-39, El Paso Locomotive 48-38. The full standings are on the USL Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.