Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü Prediction

Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, Istanbul·Muhammetali Metoglu 19/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.38
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-3.8%
Fatih Karagümrük Rest
4 days
Keçiörengücü Rest
4 days

Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü: the result in context

Keçiörengücü beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 in the 1. Lig on 19 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Muhammetali Metoglu averages 5.68 cards a game, 0.95 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.28
X
27%3.36
2
32%2.80
Double Chance
1X
68%1.38
X2
59%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.60
No
42%2.18
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.33 + 1.27 = 2.60
Over 1.5
77%1.22
Over 2.5
53%1.74
Over 3.5
32%2.83
Under 1.5
23%3.80
Under 2.5
47%2.02
Under 3.5
68%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.3 = 9.3
Over 8.5
57%1.65
Over 9.5
45%2.04
Over 10.5
34%2.64
Under 8.5
43%2.14
Under 9.5
55%1.70
Under 10.5
66%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.5 = 4.7
Over 3.5
70%-
Over 4.5
51%-
Under 3.5
30%-
Under 4.5
49%-

Match Events

18'Ahmed TraoreFoul
24'Candan BaskaleFoul
34'Wellington Ferreira NascimentoHandball
45'Mame Biram DioufAssist: E. Develi
45'Manolis Siopis INMarius Tresor Doh out
45'Alcídio Raice INJefferson out
45+3'Manolis SiopisDissent
63'Francis Ezeh INMoryke Fofana out
63'Odise Roshi INHerculano·Nabian out
65'Mame Biram DioufAssist: Moryke Fofana
66'Yaya Onogo INDorukhan Toköz out
66'J. Esen INRamazan Civelek out
66'Cenk Tosun INAleksandar Pešić out
73'Mehmet ErdoganTime wasting
75'Süleyman LusFoul
77'Ramazan Civelek
85'E. Develi INOguzhan Ayaydin out
90+4'Süleyman Lus INTuncer Duhan Aksu out

Lineups

Fatih Karagümrük
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Stanojević
Keçiörengücü
4-2-3-1Coach: O. Korkmaz
Avg rating6.55
Avg rating6.90
M. Silvestri6.21M. Silvestri
M. Sarıkaya7.025M. Sarıkaya
D. Biraschi6.34D. Biraschi
A. Çınar6.828A. Çınar
Candan Baskale6.221C. Baskale
Y. Onogo6.019Y. Onogo
M. Siopis6.420M. Siopis
Traore Ahmed6.326T. Ahmed
E. Akbaba7.45E. Akbaba
4141J. Esen
C. Tosun6.49C. Tosun
M. Erdoğan8.01M. Erdoğan
M. Keskin6.612M. Keskin
Wellington Nascimento6.33W. Nascimento
A. Çelik7.34A. Çelik
S. Luş5.833S. Luş
İ. Akdağ6.914İ. Akdağ
E. Develi7.76E. Develi
O. Roshi6.47O. Roshi
2020A. Raice
F. Ezeh6.221F. Ezeh
M. Diouf9.355M. Diouf

Fatih Karagümrük Substitutes

27Muhammed Kadioglu
14Marius Tresor Doh45'for Manolis Siopis6.6
7Baris Kalayci
22R. Civelek66'replaced by J. Esen77'7.0
33Ç. Kurukalıp
72A. Pešić66'for Cenk Tosun6.8
8D. Toköz66'for Yaya Onogo6.1
6R. Yalçın
11T. Çukur
23B. Şen

Keçiörengücü Substitutes

37D. Aksu90+4'for Süleyman Lus
22H. Ayan
16Oğuzhan Ayaydın85'for E. Develi6.5
45Herculano Nabian63'for Odise Roshi6.6
9Ö. Demirel
77M. Fofana63'for Francis Ezeh6.8
10Jefferson45'replaced by Alcídio Raice6.7
18E. Satılmış
19Enes Yilmaz
5O. Çalışkan

Match Stats

Fatih KaragümrükKeçiörengücü
66%Ball Possession34%
4Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards3
23Total Shots13
6Shots on Goal4
9Shots off Goal7
14Shots Inside Box8
9Shots Outside Box5
8Blocked Shots2
14Fouls16
3Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves5
630Total Passes319
563Passes Accurate250
15Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü
1630Elo Rating 1675
0.79Attack 1.67
2.30Defense 1.08
23%Hit Rate 34%
15.4Shots per Game 12.0
4.3Shots on Target 3.6
3.3Corners per Game 2.8
1.7Cards per Game 3.7

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük2Wins · 100%
Draws00%
KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü0Wins · 0%
1.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
0%3+ goals0 of 2

Previous meetings

1. Lig27/04/2025
Fatih KaragümrükKeçiörengücü
10
1. Lig22/12/2024
KeçiörengücüFatih Karagümrük
01

Recent Form

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
3W4D3L
15/10/2026
Mardin 1969Fatih Karagümrük
10
L
11/10/2026
Fatih KaragümrükMuğlaspor
11
D
19/09/2026
Esenler EroksporFatih Karagümrük
02
W
13/09/2026
Fatih KaragümrükManisa F.K.
11
D
06/09/2026
Batman PetrolsporFatih Karagümrük
43
L
02/09/2026
Fatih KaragümrükKayserispor
11
D
29/08/2026
İstanbulsporFatih Karagümrük
11
D
21/08/2026
Fatih KaragümrükBursaspor
21
W
15/08/2026
Fatih KaragümrükÜmraniyespor
21
W
09/08/2026
Iğdır FKFatih Karagümrük
20
L
KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü
4W5D1L

Referee Profile

Muhammetali Metoglu100 matches

5.68Cards per match
5.37Yellow cards per match
0.32Red cards per match
25.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Muhammetali Metoglu5.68
Other referees4.73

5.68 cards a match, 0.95 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.73).

Cards come from 63 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

1. Lig 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BursasporBursaspor13101229:11+1831WWWWL
2KayserisporKayserispor1393132:9+2330WDDWW
3Iğdır FKIğdır FK1383218:10+827DWWDW
4Mardin 1969Mardin 19691373318:12+624WWLWW
5Batman PetrolsporBatman Petrolspor1372426:23+323LWDWL
6KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü1355325:18+720LLWDW
7AntalyasporAntalyaspor1361619:20-119DLWLW
8Bodrum FKBodrum FK1346316:12+418DWWWL
9MuğlasporMuğlaspor1346318:20-218LWWLD
10Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük1344516:16016LWLLD
11SarıyerSarıyer1344514:18-416LLDLD
12Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor1336415:18-315WLWDW
13BandırmasporBandırmaspor1335517:13+414LLLDW
14ÜmraniyesporÜmraniyespor1235414:11+314WWLDW
15PendiksporPendikspor1335515:23-814WDLLL
16Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.1334621:23-213WLLDL
17SivassporSivasspor1327416:20-413LLDDW
18Vanspor FKVanspor FK1343614:22-813WWLWL
19İstanbulsporİstanbulspor13121010:33-235LLLLL
20BolusporBoluspor1211105:26-214LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BursasporBursaspor1329:1131
2KayserisporKayserispor1332:930
3Iğdır FKIğdır FK1318:1027
4Mardin 1969Mardin 19691318:1224
5Batman PetrolsporBatman Petrolspor1326:2323
6KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü1325:1820
7AntalyasporAntalyaspor1319:2019
8Bodrum FKBodrum FK1316:1218
9MuğlasporMuğlaspor1318:2018
10Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük1316:1616
11SarıyerSarıyer1314:1816
12Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor1315:1815
13BandırmasporBandırmaspor1317:1314
14ÜmraniyesporÜmraniyespor1214:1114
15PendiksporPendikspor1315:2314
16Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.1321:2313
17SivassporSivasspor1316:2013
18Vanspor FKVanspor FK1314:2213
19İstanbulsporİstanbulspor1310:335
20BolusporBoluspor125:264
PromotionRelegation

About the Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü forecast

The forecasts for this 1. Lig match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü in the 1. Lig table

In the 1. Lig table, Keçiörengücü are 6th and Fatih Karagümrük 10th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Fatih Karagümrük 16-16, Keçiörengücü 25-18. The full standings are on the 1. Lig Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Keçiörengücü have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Fatih Karagümrük and Keçiörengücü have met only 2 times recently, averaging 1.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.