Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz Prediction

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh·Andris Treimanis, Latvia 28/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.57
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+10.1%
Heart Of Midlothian Rest
4 days
Sturm Graz Rest
4 days

Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz: result, form and history

Sturm Graz beat Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 in the UEFA Champions League on 28 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Sturm Graz had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Heart Of Midlothian.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%1.87
X
27%4.00
2
36%3.60
Double Chance
1X
64%1.26
X2
63%1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.50
No
50%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.23 + 1.86 = 3.09
Over 1.5
77%1.16
Over 2.5
55%1.52
Over 3.5
32%2.35
Under 1.5
23%4.72
Under 2.5
45%2.35
Under 3.5
68%1.57
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4.3 = 10.5
Over 8.5
67%1.27
Over 9.5
67%1.46
Over 10.5
44%1.77
Under 8.5
33%3.30
Under 9.5
33%2.50
Under 10.5
56%1.95
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 3.5 = 6.2
Over 3.5
95%1.69
Over 4.5
95%2.32
Under 3.5
5%2.06
Under 4.5
5%1.51

Match Events

26'Goal Disallowed - FoulS. Jatta
45+2'S. Kingsley INS. Findlay out
46'L. Weinhandl INR. Fosso out
61'A. VallciRoughing
64'S. SeidlAssist: J. Gorenc Stankovic
68'E. Soglo
69'B. Spittal INT. Renaud out
69'S. Guendouz INA. Ba-Sy out
69'C. Miller INP. Kabore out
72'S. Wlodarczyk INB. Beganovic out
77'E. Soglo INA. Malic out
77'J. Hodl ING. Mamageishvili out
80'A. Kyziridis INJ. McCart out
81'J. Gorenc Stankovic INJ. Halwachs out

Lineups

Heart Of Midlothian
4-3-3Coach: Wouter Vrancken
Sturm Graz
4-4-2Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Avg rating6.83
Avg rating7.01
Alexander Schwolow9.61A. Schwolow
Jordi Altena6.923J. Altena
Malachi Fagan-Walcott6.364M. Fagan-Walcott
Stephen KingsleyC6.93S. Kingsley
Harry Milne6.918H. Milne
Blair Spittal7.016B. Spittal
Oisin McEntee6.96O. McEntee
Severin Sabri Guendouz6.219S. Sabri Guendouz
Alexandros Kyziridis6.389A. Kyziridis
Cláudio Braga6.610C. Braga
Calvin Miller7.07C. Miller
Daniil Khudyakov7.753D. Khudyakov
Jurgen Heil6.728J. Heil
Albert Vallci7.35A. Vallci
Jeyland Mitchell6.92J. Mitchell
Emran Soglo7.618E. Soglo
Simon Seidl8.519S. Seidl
Luca Weinhandl6.639L. Weinhandl
Jon Gorenc StankovićC7.94J. Gorenc Stanković
Jacob Hödl6.743J. Hödl
Szymon Włodarczyk7.917S. Włodarczyk
Seedy Jatta5.920S. Jatta

Heart Of Midlothian Substitutes

17Stuart Findlay45+2'for S. Kingsley6.5
12Tom Renaud69'for B. Spittal6.9
11Pierre Landry Kaboré69'for C. Miller6.7
77Amadou Ba-Sy69'for S. Guendouz6.2
5Jamie McCart80'for A. Kyziridis6.3
28Zander Clark
30Ryan Fulton
22Tomas Magnusson
21James Wilson
29Sabah Kerjota

Sturm Graz Substitutes

80Ryan Fosso46'for L. Weinhandl6.7
26Belmin Beganović72'for S. Wlodarczyk6.7
23Arjan Malić77'for E. Soglo6.3
15Gizo Mamageishvili77'for J. Hodl6.2
40Julian Halwachs81'for J. Gorenc Stankovic6.6
22Ammar Helac
41Elias Lorenz
21Petar Petrović
30Paul Koller
10Otar Kiteishvili
11Axel Kayombo
44Nelson Weiper

Match Stats

Heart Of MidlothianSturm Graz
64%Ball Possession36%
8Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards1
15Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal9
7Shots off Goal5
8Shots Inside Box13
7Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots3
10Fouls15
2Offsides2
7Goalkeeper Saves3
473Total Passes270
379Passes Accurate183
80%Pass Accuracy68%

Team Comparison

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
1661Elo Rating 1744
1.39Attack 1.98
0.52Defense 1.76
17%Hit Rate 66%
16.6Shots per Game 14.1
4.2Shots on Target 5.1
4.0Corners per Game 5.3
2.2Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.08 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
Sturm GrazSturm Graz1Wins · 100%
4.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Recent Form

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
6W1D3L
24/07/2026
Raith RoversHeart Of Midlothian
01
W
21/07/2026
Sturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
40
L
17/07/2026
Heart Of MidlothianRayo Vallecano
21
W
10/07/2026
LivingstonHeart Of Midlothian
21
L
16/05/2026
CelticHeart Of Midlothian
31
L
13/05/2026
Heart Of MidlothianFalkirk
30
W
09/05/2026
MotherwellHeart Of Midlothian
11
D
04/05/2026
Heart Of MidlothianRangers
21
W
26/04/2026
HibernianHeart Of Midlothian
12
W
11/04/2026
Heart Of MidlothianMotherwell
31
W
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
8W1D1L
24/07/2026
SeekirchenSturm Graz
03
W
21/07/2026
Sturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
40
W
15/07/2026
Sturm GrazPogon Szczecin
10
W
11/07/2026
Sturm GrazSanfrecce Hiroshima
41
W
08/07/2026
Sturm GrazKalsdorf
41
W
03/07/2026
Sturm GrazFK Košice
22
D
30/06/2026
Sturm GrazLNZ Cherkasy
26
L
26/06/2026
Sturm GrazMura
50
W
17/05/2026
Sturm GrazRapid Vienna
20
W
10/05/2026
TSV HartbergSturm Graz
24
W

Referee Profile

Andris Treimanis230 matches

4.92Cards per match
4.75Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
27.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Andris Treimanis4.92
Other referees4.43

4.92 cards a match, 0.49 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.43).

Cards come from 92 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Slovan Bratislava
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
Fenerbahçe
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Dinamo Zagreb
Seeded
Sturm Graz
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Celje
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded

About the Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Champions League

More UEFA Champions League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Champions League Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Sturm Graz have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Heart Of Midlothian and Sturm Graz have met only 1 time recently, with 4.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.