Lech Poznan vs Aarhus Prediction

UEFA Champions LeagueWorld World · Qualifying Round 2
Cup
Lech Poznan
1-4
After Penalties
HT 0-1AET 1-1PEN 3-4
Aarhus
Enea Poznań, Poznan·Juxhin Xhaja, Albania 29/07/2026
Lech PoznanLech Poznan
1-4
After Penalties
AarhusAarhus

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
Value Analysis
59%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.89
SignalSOLIDModel51%SurpriseMediumGap+10.3%
Lech Poznan Rest
3 days
Aarhus Rest
4 days

Lech Poznan vs Aarhus: the result in context

Aarhus beat Lech Poznan on penalties (4-3) after a 1-4 draw in the UEFA Champions League on 29 Jul 2026. That went against recent form: Lech Poznan had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Aarhus.

Lech Poznan tend to win more corners, 4.8 a game to 2.7 for Aarhus.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.70
X
21%3.88
2
26%4.45
Double Chance
1X
74%1.18
X2
47%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.62
No
50%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.82 + 1.36 = 3.18
Over 1.5
77%1.20
Over 2.5
55%1.65
Over 3.5
31%2.55
Under 1.5
23%4.45
Under 2.5
45%2.23
Under 3.5
69%1.49
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 3.9 = 8.9
Over 8.5
38%1.53
Over 9.5
28%1.85
Over 10.5
21%2.41
Under 8.5
62%2.31
Under 9.5
72%1.85
Under 10.5
79%1.47
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.2 = 4.2
Over 3.5
37%1.40
Over 4.5
32%1.92
Under 3.5
63%2.52
Under 4.5
68%1.80

Match Events

32'T. BechAssist: K. Arnstad
40'A. KozubalRoughing
45'J. BogereRoughing
55'K. Arnstad(Penalty)
60'J. Jensen-Abbew INC. Storch out
68'L. Palma INA. Sayyadmanesh out
70'J. Jonsson INR. Carstensen out
70'J. Bogere INS. Tchamche out
75'F. TingagerAssist: E. Kahl
81'R. Gumny INJ. Pereira out
81'P. Rodriguez INF. Jagiello out
86'M. AndersonUnsportsmanlike conduct
87'P. Walemark IND. Hakans out
88'M. Ishak INY. Agnero out
90+3'E. Kahl INM. Camara out

Extra Time1 - 1

91'F. EmmeryRoughing
95'F. Jagiello
97'M. Anderson INJ. Serra out
97'F. Emmery INT. Kristjansson out
98'R. Murawski ING. Thordarson out
100'T. KristjanssonAssist: T. Bech
105+1'Y. AgneroRoughing
107'M. CamaraRoughing

Penalty Shootout3 - 4

1F. Jagiello(Penalty)
1K. Arnstad(Penalty missed)
2A. Sayyadmanesh(Penalty missed)
2F. Tingager(Penalty)
3A. Kozubal(Penalty missed)
3T. Kristjansson(Penalty)
4Y. Agnero(Penalty)
4J. Serra(Penalty)
5J. Pereira(Penalty)
5T. Bech(Penalty)

Lineups

Lech Poznan
4-2-3-1Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Aarhus
3-4-2-1Coach: Jakob Poulsen
Avg rating6.59
Avg rating7.07
Mateusz Lis5.61M. Lis
Robert Gumny5.920R. Gumny
Wojciech Mońka6.227W. Mońka
Terry Yegbe5.959T. Yegbe
Michal Gurgul6.215M. Gurgul
Radosław Murawski6.622R. Murawski
Antoni Kozubal6.343A. Kozubal
Patrik Wålemark7.910P. Wålemark
Pablo Rodríguez6.521P. Rodríguez
Luis Palma6.377L. Palma
Mikael IshakC6.59M. Ishak
Mads Hedenstad8.521M. Hedenstad
Jonas Jensen-Abbew6.740J. Jensen-Abbew
Frederik Tingager8.95F. Tingager
Eric Kahl7.919E. Kahl
Mikael Anderson6.323M. Anderson
Magnus Knudsen6.94M. Knudsen
Jens Jønsson6.916J. Jønsson
Frederik Emmery6.939F. Emmery
Tobias Bech7.931T. Bech
Kristian ArnstadC7.210K. Arnstad
James Bogere6.028J. Bogere

Lech Poznan Substitutes

17Allahyar Sayyadmanesh68'for L. Palma7.3
2Joel Pereira81'for R. Gumny7.3
24Filip Jagiełło81'for P. Rodriguez95'7.9
11Daniel Håkans87'for P. Walemark6.7
7Yannick Agnero88'for M. Ishak105+1'6.6
23Gisli Thordarson98'for R. Murawski6.3
35Mateusz Pruchniewski
41Bartosz Mrozek
4João Moutinho
72Mateusz Skrzypczak
90Hubert Janyszka

Aarhus Substitutes

45Christian Storch60'for J. Jensen-Abbew6.0
29Rasmus Carstensen70'for J. Jonsson6.9
27Stefen Tchamche70'for J. Bogere6.3
44Mouhammade Camara90+3'for E. Kahl107'6.6
13Janni Serra97'for M. Anderson6.6
20Tómas Óli Kristjánsson97'for F. Emmery100'7.7
42Marius van der Raad
41Otto Lyhne
43Zander Grantzau
46Hamuza Sengooba
8Sebastian Jørgensen
22Oskar Haugstrup

Match Stats

Lech PoznanAarhus
49%Ball Possession51%
9Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots13
6Shots on Goal5
3Shots off Goal2
10Shots Inside Box8
2Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots6
12Fouls14
0Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves6
339Total Passes396
265Passes Accurate325
79%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

Lech PoznanLech Poznan
AarhusAarhus
1747Elo Rating 1624
3.01Attack 1.28
1.42Defense 2.02
54%Hit Rate 17%
15.8Shots per Game 8.3
5.7Shots on Target 2.5
4.8Corners per Game 2.7
1.5Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+123 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.17 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Lech PoznanLech Poznan
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
AarhusAarhus
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Lech PoznanLech Poznan1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
AarhusAarhus0Wins · 0%
5.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Previous meetings

UEFA Champions League21/07/2026
AarhusLech Poznan
14

Recent Form

Lech PoznanLech Poznan
7W3D0L
25/07/2026
Lech PoznanCracovia Krakow
00
D21/07/2026
AarhusLech Poznan
14
W
16/07/2026
Lech PoznanGornik Zabrze
31
W
11/07/2026
Lech PoznanBohemians 1905
40
W
04/07/2026
Lech PoznanPodbrezová
31
W
23/05/2026
Lech PoznanWisla Plock
22
D
16/05/2026
Radomiak RadomLech Poznan
13
W
08/05/2026
Lech PoznanArka Gdynia
11
D
02/05/2026
Motor LublinLech Poznan
01
W
26/04/2026
Lech PoznanLegia Warszawa
40
W
AarhusAarhus
5W3D2L
25/07/2026
AarhusBrondby
11
D21/07/2026
AarhusLech Poznan
14
L
15/07/2026
AarhusAC Horsens
20
W
11/07/2026
Union St. GilloiseAarhus
21
L
05/07/2026
AarhusMotherwell
40
W
27/06/2026
AarhusViborg
11
D
17/05/2026
AarhusViborg
62
W
10/05/2026
BrondbyAarhus
02
W
03/05/2026
AarhusSonderjyske
21
W
26/04/2026
AarhusFC Midtjylland
00
D

Referee Profile

Juxhin Xhaja168 matches

4.73Cards per match
4.58Yellow cards per match
0.15Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Juxhin Xhaja4.73
Other referees4.47

4.73 cards a match, 0.26 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.47).

Cards come from 26 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Slovan Bratislava
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
Fenerbahçe
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Dinamo Zagreb
Seeded
Sturm Graz
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Celje
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded

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About the Lech Poznan vs Aarhus forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Champions League

More UEFA Champions League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Champions League Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Lech Poznan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Lech Poznan and Aarhus have met only 1 time recently, with 5.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.