Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Heerenveen
2-3
Finished
HT 2-1
AZ Alkmaar
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen·Jeroen Manschot 06/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
79%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.28
SignalSTRONGModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+10.3%
Heerenveen Rest
7 days
AZ Alkmaar Rest
7 days

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar: result, form and history

AZ Alkmaar beat Heerenveen 3-2 in the Eredivisie on 6 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: AZ Alkmaar had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Heerenveen.

AZ Alkmaar have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.9 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
23%3.80
X
23%4.10
2
54%1.83
Double Chance
1X
46%1.97
X2
77%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%1.41
No
41%2.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.15 + 1.9 = 3.05
Over 1.5
83%1.11
Over 2.5
60%1.40
Over 3.5
36%2.05
Under 1.5
17%6.00
Under 2.5
40%2.77
Under 3.5
64%1.76
Corners
Projected Corners: 4 + 7.1 = 11.1
Over 8.5
79%1.28
Over 9.5
67%1.52
Over 10.5
64%1.86
Under 8.5
21%3.08
Under 9.5
33%2.36
Under 10.5
36%1.85
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 1.6 = 3.7
Over 3.5
50%1.93
Over 4.5
31%2.90
Under 3.5
50%1.80
Under 4.5
69%1.32

Match Events

7'Ro Zangelo DaalAssist: Wouter Goes
21'Nolhan courtensAssist: Dylan Vente
28'Nolhan courtensFoul
30'Ringo MeerveldAssist: Dirk Proper
45'Mateo Chávez INMees de Wit out
45'Weslley Pinto Batista INCalvin Stengs out
54'Ro Zangelo DaalDissent
64'Jordy Clasie INValdemar Byskov Andreasen out
68'Dylan Vente INRoberts Uldriķis out
68'Maxence Rivera INLuca Oyen out
68'Elijah Dijkstra INSeiya Maikuma out
69'Mexx MeerdinkAssist: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
74'Dirk Proper INLevi Smans out
82'Ro Zangelo Daal INAyoub Oufkir out
83'Ayoub OufkirAssist: Mexx Meerdink
88'Nolhan courtens INHristiyan Petrov out
90+1'Ayoub OufkirFoul

Lineups

Heerenveen
4-2-3-1Coach: R. Veldeman
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Coach: L. Echteld
Avg rating6.44
Avg rating6.66
B. Klaverboer6.722B. Klaverboer
O. Braude5.845O. Braude
S. Kersten6.54S. Kersten
M. Willemsen6.03M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis6.419V. Zagaritis
N. Courtens7.036N. Courtens
D. Proper6.96D. Proper
J. Trenskow6.320J. Trenskow
R. Meerveld7.010R. Meerveld
M. Rivera5.87M. Rivera
D. Vente7.39D. Vente
J. De Busser6.128J. De Busser
E. Dijkstra6.522E. Dijkstra
W. Goes6.93W. Goes
L. Schouten6.94L. Schouten
M. Chávez5.85M. Chávez
J. Clasie6.38J. Clasie
P. Koopmeiners7.16P. Koopmeiners
Weslley Patati6.27W. Patati
D. Kwakman6.721D. Kwakman
R. Daal7.111R. Daal
M. Meerdink8.79M. Meerdink

Heerenveen Substitutes

49Anass Bouziane
23D. Bladi
21M. Farji
28H. Petrov88'for Nolhan courtens5.9
29L. Machine
44A. Noppert
11L. Oyen68'for Maxence Rivera6.3
41J. Scholten
30T. Schreuder
14L. Smans74'for Dirk Proper6.2
17R. Uldriķis68'for Dylan Vente6.7

AZ Alkmaar Substitutes

75H. de Wit
14C. Stengs45'for Weslley Pinto Batista6.5
1R. Owusu-Oduro
24A. Oufkir82'for Ro Zangelo Daal83'90+1'7.5
20A. Natali
2S. Maikuma68'for Elijah Dijkstra6.4
18B. Kovacs
71I. Ka
31R. Ichihara
19J. Hornkamp
17V. Byskov64'for Jordy Clasie6.1
34M. de Wit45'for Mateo Chávez5.9

Match Stats

HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
45%Ball Possession55%
4Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards2
14Total Shots15
5Shots on Goal8
3Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box8
4Shots Outside Box7
6Blocked Shots4
9Fouls12
1Offsides4
5Goalkeeper Saves3
418Total Passes505
345Passes Accurate441
83%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

HeerenveenHeerenveen
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
1727Elo Rating 1854
2.39Attack 2.07
2.07Defense 2.02
66%Hit Rate 61%
16.6Shots per Game 13.5
6.3Shots on Target 6.2
4.7Corners per Game 5.7
0.7Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.05 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

HeerenveenHeerenveen
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.6 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.9 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

HeerenveenHeerenveen2Wins · 20%
Draws220%
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar6Wins · 60%
3.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Eredivisie12/04/2026
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
30
Eredivisie23/11/2025
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
31
Eredivisie22/05/2025
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
41
Eredivisie02/03/2025
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
31
Eredivisie14/09/2024
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
91
Eredivisie28/01/2024
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
22
Eredivisie21/10/2023
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
30
Eredivisie01/04/2023
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
11
Eredivisie14/01/2023
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
02
Eredivisie22/05/2022
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
20

Recent Form

HeerenveenHeerenveen
4W4D2L
30/08/2026
Willem IIHeerenveen
22
D
22/08/2026
HeerenveenPEC Zwolle
02
L
16/08/2026
AjaxHeerenveen
22
D
09/08/2026
HeerenveenTwente
10
W
01/08/2026
HeerenveenVolos NFC
32
W
25/07/2026
HeerenveenOH Leuven
44
D
17/07/2026
Club Brugge KVHeerenveen
23
W
03/07/2026
HeerenveenDe Graafschap
72
W
21/05/2026
UtrechtHeerenveen
32
L
17/05/2026
HeerenveenAjax
00
D
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
8W2D0L
29/08/2026
AZ AlkmaarGO Ahead Eagles
52
W
22/08/2026
Fortuna SittardAZ Alkmaar
02
W
15/08/2026
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
14
W
08/08/2026
AZ AlkmaarADO Den Haag
20
W
02/08/2026
PSV EindhovenAZ Alkmaar
04
W
25/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarOlympiakos Piraeus
32
W
22/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarGenk
40
W
18/07/2026
Zulte WaregemAZ Alkmaar
11
D
11/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarAlmere City FC
21
W
04/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarGent
33
D

Referee Profile

Jeroen Manschot182 matches

3.44Cards per match
3.33Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
19.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jeroen Manschot3.44
Other referees3.17

3.44 cards a match, 0.27 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.17).

Cards come from 180 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1073032:11+2124DWWWW
2AjaxAjax1063129:13+1621WWDDW
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1062228:13+1520DLWLW
4TwenteTwente1062219:10+920WLDWW
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1062220:12+820LDLWD
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1053217:17018WDDWL
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1043318:13+515WWLWD
8GroningenGroningen1043324:21+315DLWWD
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1035223:23014WLDDD
10CambuurCambuur1033419:22-312WDWDW
11UtrechtUtrecht1033417:27-1012DWWLW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1025317:18-111DDDDL
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1032516:19-311LLLDL
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1023517:24-79LWDLL
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1022611:23-128DWLLL
16TelstarTelstar1013612:21-96LLDLD
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013613:23-106LWDDL
18Willem IIWillem II1002810:32-222LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1032:1124
2AjaxAjax1029:1321
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1028:1320
4TwenteTwente1019:1020
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1020:1220
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1017:1718
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1018:1315
8GroningenGroningen1024:2115
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1023:2314
10CambuurCambuur1019:2212
11UtrechtUtrecht1017:2712
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1017:1811
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1016:1911
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1017:249
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1011:238
16TelstarTelstar1012:216
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013:236
18Willem IIWillem II1010:322
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie table

AZ Alkmaar and Heerenveen are close in the Eredivisie table, 5th and 7th, with 5 points between them. League goal record so far: Heerenveen 18-13, AZ Alkmaar 20-12. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Heerenveen have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.