Willem II vs Excelsior Prediction

Willem II
0-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Excelsior
Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg·Robin Hensgens 05/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
84%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel49%SurpriseMediumGap+0.6%
Willem II Rest
6 days
Excelsior Rest
7 days

Willem II vs Excelsior: result, form and history

Excelsior beat Willem II 3-0 in the Eredivisie on 5 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Excelsior had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Willem II.

Willem II tend to win more corners, 6.1 a game to 2.3 for Excelsior.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
31%2.88
X
23%3.55
2
46%2.30
Double Chance
1X
54%1.60
X2
69%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%1.53
No
35%2.38
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.42 + 1.98 = 3.40
Over 1.5
86%1.20
Over 2.5
73%1.65
Over 3.5
48%2.60
Under 1.5
14%4.50
Under 2.5
27%2.25
Under 3.5
52%1.49
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

8'David GardenAssist: Irakli Yegoian
34'Rick MeissenAssist: Simon Janssen
45'Eser Gürbüz INTonny Vilhena out
45'Mats Lemmens INMaxim Dekker out
51'kasper boogaardFoul
63'kasper boogaard INThomas Verheydt out
64'Aymen sliti INIlano Silva Timas out
65'Eric da Silva Moreira INDaniel van Vianen out
71'Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson INNesto groen out
81'Jaden SloryFoul
82'David Garden INGiulliano Cairo out
82'Jaden Slory INChido Obi out
85'Irakli YegoianAssist: Stijn van Gassel
87'Nesto groenFoul

Lineups

Willem II
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Stegeman
Excelsior
5-4-1Coach: R. den Uil
Avg rating6.29
Avg rating7.30
M. Delanghe5.926M. Delanghe
H. ter Avest6.35H. ter Avest
F. Stam6.43F. Stam
M. Lemmens6.083M. Lemmens
N. Tjoe-A-On7.524N. Tjoe-A-On
K. Boogaard6.08K. Boogaard
C. Twigt6.46C. Twigt
E. Gürbüz6.150E. Gürbüz
Uriel van Aalst5.719U. van Aalst
J. Slory6.57J. Slory
D. Haen6.29D. Haen
S. van Gassel7.31S. van Gassel
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira7.02E. Emanuel da Silva Moreira
R. Meissen8.73R. Meissen
C. Widell7.94C. Widell
J. Plug7.814J. Plug
S. Janssen7.615S. Janssen
A. Sliti6.77A. Sliti
I. Yegoian9.08I. Yegoian
L. Hartjes7.120L. Hartjes
Á. Þorsteinsson6.330Á. Þorsteinsson
D. Garden7.619D. Garden

Willem II Substitutes

2A. Ciranni
23M. Dekker45'for Mats Lemmens6.3
31K. de Leeuw
15A. Et-Taïbi
14Jens Mathijsen
17O. Martin82'for Jaden Slory5.9
21W. van der Steen
22Per van Loon
28T. Verheydt63'for kasper boogaard6.7
52T. Vilhena45'for Eser Gürbüz6.6

Excelsior Substitutes

6D. van Vianen65'for Eric da Silva Moreira7.0
22O. Turay
18V. Sulzbacher
21I. Silva Timas64'for Aymen sliti6.5
40Tijmen Holla
28N. Groen71'for Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson87'6.3
23Y. Finey
9Mario Domínguez
24Giulliano Cairo82'for David Garden6.8
12K. Bos

Match Stats

Willem IIExcelsior
59%Ball Possession41%
7Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots13
2Shots on Goal6
7Shots off Goal3
11Shots Inside Box10
5Shots Outside Box3
7Blocked Shots4
10Fouls14
1Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves2
508Total Passes367
421Passes Accurate284
83%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

Willem IIWillem II
ExcelsiorExcelsior
1506Elo Rating 1643
1.06Attack 1.07
0.00Defense 0.00
0%Hit Rate 0%
11.8Shots per Game 9.4
2.9Shots on Target 2.5
6.1Corners per Game 2.3
2.0Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.4 goals

Game State Tendencies

Willem IIWillem II
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ExcelsiorExcelsior
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

Willem IIWillem II
4W2D4L
30/08/2026
Willem IIHeerenveen
22
D
15/08/2026
Willem IINEC Nijmegen
14
L
08/08/2026
GO Ahead EaglesWillem II
41
L
01/08/2026
Willem IIOFI
21
W
25/07/2026
Willem IIKV Mechelen
10
W
11/07/2026
Willem IIFC Eindhoven
22
D
04/07/2026
Willem IIQuick Boys
12
L
23/05/2026
FC VolendamWillem II
4152
W
20/05/2026
Willem IIFC Volendam
12
L
16/05/2026
Willem IIAlmere City FC
20
W
ExcelsiorExcelsior
8W1D1L
29/08/2026
ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
21
W
15/08/2026
ExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
12
L
07/08/2026
CambuurExcelsior
04
W
01/08/2026
De GraafschapExcelsior
15
W
24/07/2026
HeraclesExcelsior
35
W
18/07/2026
NAC BredaExcelsior
13
W
11/07/2026
DordrechtExcelsior
02
W
04/07/2026
ExcelsiorCambuur
32
W
17/05/2026
Sparta RotterdamExcelsior
23
W
10/05/2026
ExcelsiorFC Volendam
11
D

Referee Profile

Robin Hensgens162 matches

3.39Cards per match
3.25Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
22.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Robin Hensgens3.39
Other referees3.24

3.39 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.24).

Cards come from 151 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1073032:11+2124DWWWW
2AjaxAjax1063129:13+1621WWDDW
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1062228:13+1520DLWLW
4TwenteTwente1062219:10+920WLDWW
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1062220:12+820LDLWD
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1053217:17018WDDWL
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1043318:13+515WWLWD
8GroningenGroningen1043324:21+315DLWWD
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1035223:23014WLDDD
10CambuurCambuur1033419:22-312WDWDW
11UtrechtUtrecht1033417:27-1012DWWLW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1025317:18-111DDDDL
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1032516:19-311LLLDL
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1023517:24-79LWDLL
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1022611:23-128DWLLL
16TelstarTelstar1013612:21-96LLDLD
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013613:23-106LWDDL
18Willem IIWillem II1002810:32-222LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1032:1124
2AjaxAjax1029:1321
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1028:1320
4TwenteTwente1019:1020
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1020:1220
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1017:1718
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1018:1315
8GroningenGroningen1024:2115
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1023:2314
10CambuurCambuur1019:2212
11UtrechtUtrecht1017:2712
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1017:1811
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1016:1911
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1017:249
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1011:238
16TelstarTelstar1012:216
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013:236
18Willem IIWillem II1010:322
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Willem II vs Excelsior forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Willem II and Excelsior in the Eredivisie table

In the Eredivisie table, Excelsior are 13th and Willem II 18th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Willem II 10-32, Excelsior 16-19. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Willem II and Excelsior have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.