Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction

Excelsior
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Sparta Rotterdam
Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam·Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands 29/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
86%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.17
SignalSTRONGModel43%SurpriseMediumGap+0.3%
Value Analysis
54%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 10.5
1.89
SignalNEUTRALModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+4.9%
Excelsior Rest
13 days
Sparta Rotterdam Rest
6 days

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam: result, form and history

Excelsior beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 in the Eredivisie on 29 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Excelsior had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Sparta Rotterdam.

Sparta Rotterdam have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 3.5 goals a game. Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk averages 3.99 cards a game, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
46%2.17
X
27%3.74
2
27%3.00
Double Chance
1X
73%1.37
X2
54%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.48
No
44%2.46
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.83 + 1.25 = 3.08
Over 1.5
83%1.17
Over 2.5
59%1.59
Over 3.5
33%2.45
Under 1.5
17%4.72
Under 2.5
41%2.35
Under 3.5
67%1.53
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.7 = 10.5
Over 8.5
74%1.31
Over 9.5
60%1.55
Over 10.5
54%1.89
Under 8.5
26%3.04
Under 9.5
40%2.23
Under 10.5
46%1.79
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 1.9 = 3.4
Over 3.5
32%1.57
Over 4.5
16%2.12
Under 3.5
68%2.27
Under 4.5
84%1.64

Match Events

20'Jens ToornstraFoul
24'Aymen sliti
28'Simon JanssenFoul
37'Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonFoul
39'Robin van Cruijsen INCasper Terho out
48'Milan ZonneveldAssist: Mitchell Van Bergen
59'Aymen sliti INAlireza Jahanbakhsh out
59'Daniel van Vianen INEric da Silva Moreira out
67'David Garden INNesto groen out
67'Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson INIlano Silva Timas out
83'Jens Toornstra INAlwande Benedict Roaldsøy out
83'Mitchell Van Bergen INJoel Ideho out
85'Simon Janssen INKasey Bos out
89'Julian Baas INNick Verschuren out
90+2'Nesto groenAssist: Ilano Silva Timas

Lineups

Excelsior
4-3-3Coach: Ruben den Uil
Sparta Rotterdam
4-2-3-1Coach: Rogier Meijer
Avg rating6.75
Avg rating6.53
S. van Gassel6.21S. van Gassel
R. Meissen6.43R. Meissen
C. Widell6.84C. Widell
J. Plug7.114J. Plug
L. Hartjes6.420L. Hartjes
I. Yegoian7.28I. Yegoian
D. van Vianen6.56D. van Vianen
A. Sliti8.17A. Sliti
D. Garden6.319D. Garden
Á. Þorsteinsson6.130Á. Þorsteinsson
F. Bednarek5.91F. Bednarek
M. Young6.93M. Young
B. Martins Indi6.74B. Martins Indi
B. Kuipers6.35B. Kuipers
J. Baas6.66J. Baas
J. Toornstra6.28J. Toornstra
Robin van Cruijsen6.07R. van Cruijsen
S. Mito6.510S. Mito
M. van Bergen7.311M. van Bergen
M. Zonneveld8.29M. Zonneveld

Excelsior Substitutes

12K. Bos85'replaced by Simon Janssen6.6
5S. Henderikx
40Tijmen Holla
11A. Jahanbakhsh59'for Aymen sliti6.0
23Y. Finey
21I. Silva Timas67'for Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson6.7
18V. Sulzbacher
2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira59'for Daniel van Vianen6.5
28N. Groen67'for David Garden90+2'8.2

Sparta Rotterdam Substitutes

15G. Vianello
13N. Verschuren89'for Julian Baas6.1
17C. Terho39'for Robin van Cruijsen6.3
16A. Roaldsøy83'for Jens Toornstra6.1
12B. Reith
14Teo Quintero
20P. Kuiper
22Joel Ideho83'for Mitchell Van Bergen6.3

Match Stats

ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
45%Ball Possession55%
6Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards1
15Total Shots10
5Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal4
12Shots Inside Box5
3Shots Outside Box5
5Blocked Shots4
13Fouls7
1Goalkeeper Saves3
383Total Passes488
309Passes Accurate406
81%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

ExcelsiorExcelsior
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
1645Elo Rating 1594
1.26Attack 1.85
0.88Defense 0.55
27%Hit Rate 19%
8.0Shots per Game 14.8
2.9Shots on Target 5.1
1.9Corners per Game 3.7
0.7Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.08 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

ExcelsiorExcelsior
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

ExcelsiorExcelsior2Wins · 33%
Draws00%
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam4Wins · 67%
3.5Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored4 of 6
67%3+ goals4 of 6

Previous meetings

Eredivisie17/05/2026
Sparta RotterdamExcelsior
23
Eredivisie14/09/2025
ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
01
Eredivisie17/02/2024
Sparta RotterdamExcelsior
42
Eredivisie01/10/2023
ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
21
Eredivisie05/03/2023
ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
14
Eredivisie14/01/2023
Sparta RotterdamExcelsior
10

Recent Form

ExcelsiorExcelsior
8W1D1L
15/08/2026
ExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
12
L
07/08/2026
CambuurExcelsior
04
W
01/08/2026
De GraafschapExcelsior
15
W
24/07/2026
HeraclesExcelsior
35
W
18/07/2026
NAC BredaExcelsior
13
W
11/07/2026
DordrechtExcelsior
02
W
04/07/2026
ExcelsiorCambuur
32
W
17/05/2026
Sparta RotterdamExcelsior
23
W
10/05/2026
ExcelsiorFC Volendam
11
D
02/05/2026
GroningenExcelsior
23
W
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
3W3D4L
22/08/2026
Sparta RotterdamUtrecht
33
D
14/08/2026
TelstarSparta Rotterdam
13
W
09/08/2026
Sparta RotterdamFeyenoord
01
L
01/08/2026
Sparta RotterdamMSV Duisburg
00
D
28/07/2026
Sparta RotterdamAsteras Tripolis
11
D
25/07/2026
Zulte WaregemSparta Rotterdam
32
L
18/07/2026
SV MeppenSparta Rotterdam
32
L
11/07/2026
Sparta RotterdamTelstar
10
W
07/07/2026
VOCSparta Rotterdam
04
W
17/05/2026
Sparta RotterdamExcelsior
23
L

Referee Profile

Serdar Gozubuyuk265 matches

4.00Cards per match
3.86Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
23.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Serdar Gozubuyuk3.99
Other referees3.49

3.99 cards a match, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.49).

Cards come from 257 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1073032:11+2124DWWWW
2AjaxAjax1063129:13+1621WWDDW
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1062228:13+1520DLWLW
4TwenteTwente1062219:10+920WLDWW
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1062220:12+820LDLWD
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1053217:17018WDDWL
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1043318:13+515WWLWD
8GroningenGroningen1043324:21+315DLWWD
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1035223:23014WLDDD
10CambuurCambuur1033419:22-312WDWDW
11UtrechtUtrecht1033417:27-1012DWWLW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1025317:18-111DDDDL
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1032516:19-311LLLDL
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1023517:24-79LWDLL
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1022611:23-128DWLLL
16TelstarTelstar1013612:21-96LLDLD
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013613:23-106LWDDL
18Willem IIWillem II1002810:32-222LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1032:1124
2AjaxAjax1029:1321
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1028:1320
4TwenteTwente1019:1020
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1020:1220
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1017:1718
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1018:1315
8GroningenGroningen1024:2115
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1023:2314
10CambuurCambuur1019:2212
11UtrechtUtrecht1017:2712
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1017:1811
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1016:1911
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1017:249
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1011:238
16TelstarTelstar1012:216
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013:236
18Willem IIWillem II1010:322
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie table

Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam are close in the Eredivisie table, 13th and 14th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Excelsior 16-19, Sparta Rotterdam 17-24. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.