Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Utrecht
1-4
Finished
HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht·Danny Makkelie, Netherlands 15/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.49
SignalGOODModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+6.3%
Utrecht Rest
6 days
AZ Alkmaar Rest
6 days

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar: the result in context

AZ Alkmaar beat Utrecht 4-1 in the Eredivisie on 15 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: AZ Alkmaar had won 4 of their previous five, compared with none for Utrecht.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.7 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 8.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
30%2.70
X
26%3.60
2
44%2.40
Double Chance
1X
56%1.55
X2
70%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.50
No
42%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.32 + 1.54 = 2.86
Over 1.5
82%1.18
Over 2.5
57%1.63
Over 3.5
31%2.50
Under 1.5
18%4.50
Under 2.5
43%2.27
Under 3.5
69%1.49
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.6 = 10
Over 8.5
64%1.47
Over 9.5
53%1.81
Over 10.5
43%2.29
Under 8.5
36%2.46
Under 9.5
47%1.91
Under 10.5
57%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.5
45%1.78
Over 4.5
28%2.38
Under 3.5
55%1.93
Under 4.5
72%1.49

Match Events

23'Artem StepanovFoul
45'P. Koopmeiners
46'Ferdinand PohlFoul
46'M. Eerdhuijzen INM. Didden out
47'Weslley PatatiAssist: K. Smit
49'M. MeerdinkAssist: M. Chavez Garcia
54'Guus OfferhausFoul
55'D. de Wit INK. Paredes out
56'Weslley PatatiFoul
62'Y. Cathline IND. van den Berg out
62'F. Pohl INA. Blake out
62'A. StepanovAssist: Y. Cathline
66'Weslley Patati INC. Stengs out
69'Arthur ZagreFoul
80'A. Zagre INN. Ogidi Nwankwo out
80'K. Smit INR. Ichihara out
81'R. Daal INA. Oufkir out
84'A. OufkirAssist: M. Chavez Garcia
85'P. Koopmeiners INS. Maikuma out
89'Mateo ChávezFoul

Lineups

Utrecht
4-2-3-1Coach: Anthony Correia
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Coach: Leeroy Echteld
Avg rating6.33
Avg rating7.15
V. Barkas4.61V. Barkas
N. Vesterlund6.023N. Vesterlund
S. Horemans6.92S. Horemans
M. Eerdhuijzen6.544M. Eerdhuijzen
A. Zagre5.292A. Zagre
F. Pohl6.353F. Pohl
G. Offerhaus6.06G. Offerhaus
A. Alarcon7.011A. Alarcon
D. de WitC6.220D. de Wit
Y. Cathline6.710Y. Cathline
A. Stepanov7.318A. Stepanov
J. De Busser7.228J. De Busser
E. Dijkstra6.722E. Dijkstra
W. Goes7.03W. Goes
L. Schouten6.216L. Schouten
M. Chavez Garcia7.75M. Chavez Garcia
D. Kwakman7.221D. Kwakman
P. KoopmeinersC8.56P. Koopmeiners
Weslley Patati7.67W. Patati
K. Smit6.910K. Smit
R. Daal7.311R. Daal
M. Meerdink7.335M. Meerdink

Utrecht Substitutes

25M. Brouwer
33K. Gadellaa
21N. Ogidi Nwankwo80'for A. Zagre
3M. Didden46'for M. Eerdhuijzen5.9
32P. Kloosterboer
8J. van Overeem
14Z. Iqbal
34D. van den Berg62'for Y. Cathline6.7
30K. Paredes55'for D. de Wit7.3
15A. Blake62'for F. Pohl6.3
47E. C. Owen
9D. Min

AZ Alkmaar Substitutes

12H. Verhulst
1R. Owusu-Oduro
2S. Maikuma85'for P. Koopmeiners6.7
18R. Ichihara80'for K. Smit6.6
23B. van Duijl
34M. de Wit
75H. de Wit
33M. Sin
27S. van Duijn
24A. Oufkir81'for R. Daal84'7.7
14C. Stengs66'for Weslley Patati6.7
45B. Kovacs

Match Stats

UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
48%Ball Possession52%
3Corner Kicks9
4Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots24
2Shots on Goal9
4Shots off Goal10
6Shots Inside Box11
2Shots Outside Box13
2Blocked Shots5
23Fouls14
1Offsides0
5Goalkeeper Saves1
372Total Passes417
301Passes Accurate352
81%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

UtrechtUtrecht
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
1703Elo Rating 1854
1.59Attack 2.07
1.34Defense 2.02
56%Hit Rate 61%
17.1Shots per Game 13.5
4.8Shots on Target 6.2
4.9Corners per Game 5.7
1.7Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.87 goals
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

UtrechtUtrecht
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.9 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

UtrechtUtrecht2Wins · 20%
Draws660%
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar2Wins · 20%
3.7Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Eredivisie01/03/2026
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
20
Eredivisie26/10/2025
AZ AlkmaarUtrecht
41
Eredivisie18/01/2025
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
00
Eredivisie29/09/2024
AZ AlkmaarUtrecht
12
Eredivisie19/05/2024
AZ AlkmaarUtrecht
33
Eredivisie03/12/2023
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
11
KNVB Beker07/02/2023
AZ AlkmaarUtrecht
1121
Eredivisie28/01/2023
AZ AlkmaarUtrecht
55
Eredivisie09/10/2022
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
12
Eredivisie11/05/2022
UtrechtAZ Alkmaar
22

Recent Form

UtrechtUtrecht
4W0D6L
09/08/2026
GroningenUtrecht
21
L
02/08/2026
UtrechtSevilla
01
L
24/07/2026
CambuurUtrecht
10
L
17/07/2026
UtrechtV-varen Nagasaki
02
L
27/06/2026
UtrechtDe Graafschap
12
L
24/05/2026
AjaxUtrecht
4030
L
21/05/2026
UtrechtHeerenveen
32
W
17/05/2026
UtrechtFortuna Sittard
20
W
10/05/2026
AjaxUtrecht
12
W
02/05/2026
UtrechtNAC Breda
20
W
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
5W5D0L
08/08/2026
AZ AlkmaarADO Den Haag
20
W
02/08/2026
PSV EindhovenAZ Alkmaar
04
W
25/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarOlympiakos Piraeus
32
W
22/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarGenk
40
W
18/07/2026
Zulte WaregemAZ Alkmaar
11
D
11/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarAlmere City FC
21
W
04/07/2026
AZ AlkmaarGent
33
D
17/05/2026
AZ AlkmaarNAC Breda
33
D
10/05/2026
FeyenoordAZ Alkmaar
11
D
03/05/2026
AZ AlkmaarTwente
22
D

Referee Profile

Danny Makkelie206 matches

3.39Cards per match
3.23Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
22.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Danny Makkelie3.39
Other referees3.24

3.39 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.24).

Cards come from 203 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1073032:11+2124DWWWW
2AjaxAjax1063129:13+1621WWDDW
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1062228:13+1520DLWLW
4TwenteTwente1062219:10+920WLDWW
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1062220:12+820LDLWD
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1053217:17018WDDWL
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1043318:13+515WWLWD
8GroningenGroningen1043324:21+315DLWWD
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1035223:23014WLDDD
10CambuurCambuur1033419:22-312WDWDW
11UtrechtUtrecht1033417:27-1012DWWLW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1025317:18-111DDDDL
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1032516:19-311LLLDL
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1023517:24-79LWDLL
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1022611:23-128DWLLL
16TelstarTelstar1013612:21-96LLDLD
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013613:23-106LWDDL
18Willem IIWillem II1002810:32-222LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1032:1124
2AjaxAjax1029:1321
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1028:1320
4TwenteTwente1019:1020
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1020:1220
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1017:1718
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1018:1315
8GroningenGroningen1024:2115
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1023:2314
10CambuurCambuur1019:2212
11UtrechtUtrecht1017:2712
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1017:1811
13ExcelsiorExcelsior1016:1911
14Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1017:249
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1011:238
16TelstarTelstar1012:216
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1013:236
18Willem IIWillem II1010:322
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar forecast

The forecasts for this Eredivisie match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie table

In the Eredivisie table, AZ Alkmaar are 5th and Utrecht 11th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Utrecht 17-27, AZ Alkmaar 20-12. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.