HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos Prediction

HNK Hajduk Split
2-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Pafos
Stadion Poljud, Split·Robert Harvey, Ireland 23/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
92%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.28
SignalSTRONGModel63%SurpriseMediumGap+14.0%
Value Analysis
79%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel54%SurpriseMediumGap+12.0%
HNK Hajduk Split Rest
7 days
Pafos Rest
7 days

HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos: the result in context

HNK Hajduk Split beat Pafos 2-0 in the UEFA Europa League on 23 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: HNK Hajduk Split had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Pafos.

Referee Robert Harvey averages 5.56 cards a game, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
70%2.10
X
22%3.25
2
8%3.46
Double Chance
1X
92%1.28
X2
30%1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.91
No
52%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.96 + 0.75 = 2.71
Over 1.5
77%1.40
Over 2.5
51%2.20
Over 3.5
23%4.00
Under 1.5
23%2.77
Under 2.5
49%1.65
Under 3.5
77%1.22
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

4'A. PajazitiHolding
55'N. IoannouRoughing
56'M. Sego
63'Pepe INA. Brito out
63'D. Goldar INBruno out
63'A. BritoHolding
64'D. MelnjakAssist: M. Acapandie
74'V. Dragomir IND. Quina out
74'I. Sunjic INGuga out
77'D. Maresic INM. Skelin out
77'M. Sego INM. Livaja out
77'D. de Almeida INA. del Moral out
83'D. Melnjak INA. Guram out
87'A. GuramHolding
88'A. del MoralRoughing
90+2'S. Hrgovic INR. Raci out

Lineups

HNK Hajduk Split
4-2-3-1Coach: Gonzalo Garcia
Pafos
3-4-3Coach: Albert Celades
Toni Silić33T. Silić
Mathieu Acapandié22M. Acapandié
Dario Marešić15D. Marešić
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck5A. Van Hoorenbeeck
Šimun Hrgović32Š. Hrgović
Rokas Pukštas21R. Pukštas
Adrion Pajaziti4A. Pajaziti
Roko Brajković28R. Brajković
Dalisson de Almeida9D. de Almeida
Dario Melnjak17D. Melnjak
Michele Šego11M. Šego
Radosław Majecki99R. Majecki
David Goldar5D. Goldar
David Luiz4D. Luiz
Samy Mmaee13S. Mmaee
Jajá11Jajá
Pêpê88Pêpê
Ivan Šunjić26I. Šunjić
Nikolas Ioannou14N. Ioannou
Vlad Dragomir30V. Dragomir
Lelê18Lelê
Biel20Biel

HNK Hajduk Split Substitutes

36Marino Skelin77'for D. Maresic
20Alberto del Moral77'for D. de Almeida88'
10Marko Livaja77'for M. Sego
26Adam Huram83'for D. Melnjak87'
14Ron Raçi90+2'for S. Hrgovic
1Ivica Ivušić
44Dante Stipica
38Luka Hodak
7Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba
16Anđelo Šutalo
19Etnik Brruti
37Noa Skoko

Pafos Substitutes

7Bruno63'for D. Goldar
50Alexandre Brito63'for Pepe63'
6Gonçalo Rodrigues74'for I. Sunjic
8Domingos Quina74'for V. Dragomir
71Michalis Papastylianou
82Petros Petrou
61Melinos Kais
72Kosmas Ioannou
12Ken Sema
42Georgios Michael
80Christos Efzona
47Murad Mammadov

Team Comparison

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
PafosPafos
1756Elo Rating 1653
1.58Attack 0.82
2.15Defense 2.13
73%Hit Rate 14%
13.8Shots per Game 15.2
5.5Shots on Target 6.3
3.7Corners per Game 7.2
2.0Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+103 Elo
💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
PafosPafos
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
6W2D2L
16/07/2026
ŽilinaHNK Hajduk Split
21
L
09/07/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitŽilina
20
W
01/07/2026
CeljeHNK Hajduk Split
01
W
27/06/2026
LNZ CherkasyHNK Hajduk Split
01
W
23/06/2026
ShkendijaHNK Hajduk Split
04
W
22/05/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitVukovar
63
W
16/05/2026
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNK Hajduk Split
11
D
09/05/2026
Dinamo ZagrebHNK Hajduk Split
20
L
03/05/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin
31
W
26/04/2026
HNK RijekaHNK Hajduk Split
00
D
PafosPafos
4W2D4L
16/07/2026
Slovan BratislavaPafos
32
L
12/07/2026
JagielloniaPafos
10
L
08/07/2026
FK JablonecPafos
00
D
03/07/2026
Cracovia KrakowPafos
12
W
29/05/2026
Apollon LimassolPafos
02
W
22/05/2026
PafosApoel Nicosia
20
W
16/05/2026
AEK LarnacaPafos
22
D
10/05/2026
PafosAris
20
W
06/05/2026
PafosOmonia Nicosia
02
L
03/05/2026
Apollon LimassolPafos
21
L

Referee Profile

Robert Harvey151 matches

5.56Cards per match
5.27Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
24.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Robert Harvey5.56
Other referees4.88

5.56 cards a match, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.88).

Cards come from 75 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Kairat Almaty
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Trabzonspor
Seeded
Lillestrom
Seeded
Ararat-Armenia
Seeded
Kauno Žalgiris
Seeded
St. Truiden
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Plzen
Seeded
OFI
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Larne
Seeded
Saburtalo
Seeded
Shamrock Rovers
Seeded
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
KuPS
Seeded
Universitatea Craiova
Seeded
Jagiellonia
Seeded
Rangers
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
KI Klaksvik
Seeded
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Red Bull Salzburg
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Vikingur Reykjavik
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
Tromso
Seeded
Hradec Králové
Seeded
PAOK
Seeded
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Seeded
Hammarby FF
Seeded
Anderlecht
Seeded
FC ST. Gallen
Seeded
Benfica
Seeded
Twente
Seeded
Beşiktaş
Seeded
FC Midtjylland
Seeded
Pafos
Seeded
Kairat Almaty
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Trabzonspor
Seeded
Lillestrom
Seeded
Ararat-Armenia
Seeded
Kauno Žalgiris
Seeded
St. Truiden
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Plzen
Seeded
OFI
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Larne
Seeded
Saburtalo
Seeded
Shamrock Rovers
Seeded
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
KuPS
Seeded
Universitatea Craiova
Seeded
Jagiellonia
Seeded
Rangers
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
KI Klaksvik
Seeded
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Red Bull Salzburg
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Vikingur Reykjavik
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
Kairat Almaty
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Trabzonspor
Seeded
Lillestrom
Seeded
Ararat-Armenia
Seeded
Kauno Žalgiris
Seeded
St. Truiden
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Plzen
Seeded
OFI
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Kairat Almaty
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Trabzonspor
Seeded
Lillestrom
Seeded
Ararat-Armenia
Seeded
Kauno Žalgiris
Seeded
St. Truiden
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Plzen
Seeded
OFI
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Larne
Seeded
Saburtalo
Seeded
Shamrock Rovers
Seeded
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
KuPS
Seeded
Universitatea Craiova
Seeded
Jagiellonia
Seeded
Rangers
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
KI Klaksvik
Seeded
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Red Bull Salzburg
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Vikingur Reykjavik
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded

About the HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos forecast

This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Europa League

More UEFA Europa League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Europa League Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

HNK Hajduk Split have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.