Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City Prediction

Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson·M. Badawi 23/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.28
SignalHIGHModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+0.1%
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.55
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+14.0%
Los Angeles Galaxy Rest
5 days
St. Louis City Rest
6 days

Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City: result, form and history

St. Louis City beat Los Angeles Galaxy 3-1 in the Major League Soccer on 23 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: St. Louis City had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Los Angeles Galaxy.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 6 previous meetings averaged 4.0 goals, and both sides scored in 5 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
46%1.96
X
32%3.80
2
22%3.49
Double Chance
1X
78%1.28
X2
54%1.81
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.48
No
40%2.48
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.58 + 1.12 = 2.70
Over 1.5
79%1.17
Over 2.5
61%1.55
Over 3.5
34%2.35
Under 1.5
21%5.03
Under 2.5
39%2.42
Under 3.5
66%1.58
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.1 = 9.9
Over 8.5
61%1.46
Over 9.5
50%1.75
Over 10.5
36%2.17
Under 8.5
39%2.50
Under 9.5
50%1.95
Under 10.5
64%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 2.7 = 5.2
Over 3.5
72%1.52
Over 4.5
55%2.05
Under 3.5
28%2.47
Under 4.5
45%1.74

Match Events

42'L. MacNaughtonAssist: M. Hartel
45+1'M. HartelAssist: T. Totland
45+1'C. Garces
45+4'M. Reus
49'C. Garces
49'C. Garces
56'L. MacNaughton
59'M. Reus INR. Taylor out
62'E. Lowen INS. Jeong out
62'L. MacNaughton INJ. Orozco out
62'M. Joyner INRafael Santos out
64'J. Nelson INJ. Aude out
65'L. Sanabria INI. Parente out
68'S. BecherAssist: M. Hartel
71'J. Glesnes
74'J. Paintsil INT. Elgersma out
74'E. Wynder INM. Yoshida out
86'T. Elgersma
86'S. Becher INP. Ault out
86'D. Edelman INM. Perez out

Lineups

Los Angeles Galaxy
4-1-4-1Coach: Greg Vanney
St. Louis City
3-4-1-2Coach: Yoann Damet
Avg rating6.71
Avg rating7.02
JT Marcinkowski8.512J. Marcinkowski
Miki Yamane6.32M. Yamane
Jakob Glesnes6.65J. Glesnes
Carlos Garcés5.525C. Garcés
John Nelson6.514J. Nelson
Justin Haak6.215J. Haak
Joseph Paintsil6.928J. Paintsil
Elijah Wynder6.522E. Wynder
Lucas Sanabria7.38L. Sanabria
Harbor Miller6.726H. Miller
Marco ReusC6.318M. Reus
Roman Bürki7.01R. Bürki
Lukas MacNaughton7.95L. MacNaughton
Timo Baumgartl7.332T. Baumgartl
Dante Polvara6.621D. Polvara
Mykhi Joyner6.359M. Joyner
Daniel Edelman6.924D. Edelman
Christopher Durkin6.98C. Durkin
Tomas Totland6.914T. Totland
Marcel HartelC9.717M. Hartel
Eduard Löwen6.510E. Löwen
Simon Becher7.911S. Becher

Los Angeles Galaxy Substitutes

21Robert Taylor59'for M. Reus6.9
3Julián Aude64'for J. Nelson6.5
16Isaiah Parente65'for L. Sanabria6.3
4Maya Yoshida74'for E. Wynder6.7
76Troy Elgersma74'for J. Paintsil86'7.7
1Novak Mićović
20Chris Rindov

St. Louis City Substitutes

99Jaziel Orozco62'for L. MacNaughton6.3
20Rafael Santos62'for M. Joyner6.2
77Jeong Sang-bin62'for E. Lowen6.9
28Miguel Perez86'for D. Edelman6.7
29Palmer Ault86'for S. Becher6.3
39Benjamin Lundt
22Kyle Hiebert
27Fallou Fall
7Tomáš Ostrák

Match Stats

Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis City
47%Ball Possession53%
4Corner Kicks7
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
11Total Shots15
3Shots on Goal9
3Shots off Goal3
6Shots Inside Box11
5Shots Outside Box4
5Blocked Shots3
11Fouls16
3Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves2
432Total Passes488
356Passes Accurate422
82%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
1600Elo Rating 1669
2.14Attack 0.87
0.73Defense 1.01
34%Hit Rate 0%
12.4Shots per Game 9.7
6.3Shots on Target 4.5
3.0Corners per Game 4.2
1.8Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend83% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy0Wins · 0%
Draws467%
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City2Wins · 33%
4.0Avg Goals
83%Both teams scored5 of 6
83%3+ goals5 of 6

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer14/06/2025
St. Louis CityLos Angeles Galaxy
33
Major League Soccer10/03/2025
Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis City
03
Major League Soccer01/09/2024
St. Louis CityLos Angeles Galaxy
21
Major League Soccer17/03/2024
Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis City
33
Major League Soccer11/09/2023
Los Angeles GalaxySt. Louis City
22
Major League Soccer11/06/2023
St. Louis CityLos Angeles Galaxy
11

Recent Form

Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy
4W3D3L
18/07/2026
Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles FC
03
L
12/07/2026
Los Angeles GalaxyClub America
10
W
24/05/2026
Los Angeles GalaxyHouston Dynamo
11
D
17/05/2026
Seattle SoundersLos Angeles Galaxy
02
W
14/05/2026
Sporting Kansas CityLos Angeles Galaxy
31
L
10/05/2026
Atlanta United FCLos Angeles Galaxy
12
W
03/05/2026
Los Angeles GalaxyVancouver Whitecaps
11
D
27/04/2026
Los Angeles GalaxyReal Salt Lake
21
W
23/04/2026
Columbus CrewLos Angeles Galaxy
21
L
19/04/2026
FC DallasLos Angeles Galaxy
22
D
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
6W1D3L
17/07/2026
St. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
32
W
23/05/2026
St. Louis CityAustin
30
W
20/05/2026
St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
4222
W
17/05/2026
DC UnitedSt. Louis City
11
D
14/05/2026
St. Louis CityLos Angeles FC
21
W
10/05/2026
Colorado RapidsSt. Louis City
01
W
03/05/2026
AustinSt. Louis City
20
L
30/04/2026
Chicago FireSt. Louis City
12
W
26/04/2026
St. Louis CitySan Jose Earthquakes
23
L
19/04/2026
Seattle SoundersSt. Louis City
41
L

Referee Profile

M. Badawi92 matches

4.27Cards per match
4.13Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
23.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

M. Badawi4.27
Other referees4.35

4.27 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.35).

Cards come from 52 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps33187872:34+3861WWLWD
2FC DallasFC Dallas331510859:50+955DLWDW
3San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes331410956:48+852WDLDD
4St. Louis CitySt. Louis City331491058:48+1051LLLLD
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo331491043:42+151LWDDD
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3312111051:38+1347LDDWD
7Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3311111149:55-644WDDWL
8Portland TimbersPortland Timbers331271460:61-143WWWDL
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids331271446:47-143LDWDD
10Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3311101242:45-343LLDDL
11Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake331261551:51042LWWWD
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3310111253:57-441WWDWD
13San DiegoSan Diego339111357:62-538WLDDD
14AustinAustin338101542:63-2134LLWLL
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City33652239:81-4223DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3372:3461
2FC DallasFC Dallas3359:5055
3San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3356:4852
4St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3358:4851
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3343:4251
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3351:3847
7Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3349:5544
8Portland TimbersPortland Timbers3360:6143
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids3346:4743
10Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3342:4543
11Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3351:5142
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3353:5741
13San DiegoSan Diego3357:6238
14AustinAustin3342:6334
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City3339:8123
Promotion

About the Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Los Angeles Galaxy and St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, St. Louis City are 4th and Los Angeles Galaxy 7th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Los Angeles Galaxy 49-55, St. Louis City 58-48. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.