St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction

CITYPARK, St. Louis·A. Chapman 17/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.69
SignalSOLIDModel54%SurpriseMediumGap+9.6%
St. Louis City Rest
54 days
Sporting Kansas City Rest
54 days

St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City: result, form and history

St. Louis City beat Sporting Kansas City 3-2 in the Major League Soccer on 17 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: St. Louis City had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Sporting Kansas City.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 3.8 goals, and both sides scored in 8 of them. Referee A. Chapman averages 3.51 cards a game, 0.88 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.41
X
25%5.00
2
15%6.20
Double Chance
1X
85%1.12
X2
40%2.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.50
No
40%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.67 + 0.99 = 2.66
Over 1.5
80%1.11
Over 2.5
62%1.39
Over 3.5
35%1.99
Under 1.5
20%6.40
Under 2.5
38%2.95
Under 3.5
65%1.80
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4 = 10.3
Over 8.5
61%1.39
Over 9.5
50%1.69
Over 10.5
36%2.05
Under 8.5
39%2.80
Under 9.5
50%2.05
Under 10.5
64%1.69
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 3 = 4.8
Over 3.5
72%1.65
Over 4.5
54%2.20
Under 3.5
28%2.19
Under 4.5
46%1.62

Match Events

28'S. Jeong
36'M. HartelAssist: S. Becher
42'Capita
46'I. James INJ. Davis out
46'C. Wallem INRafael Santos out
46'J. Reid INE. Karic out
64'S. Jeong INM. Perez out
75'O. Blorian INE. Bartlow out
76'Z. Bassong INK. Agyabeng out
76'D. JoveljicAssist: M. Garcia
78'Capita
85'Capita INS. Afrifa out
85'E. Lowen(Penalty)
88'E. Lowen INT. Ostrak out
88'T. Totland INJ. Orozco out
90'B. Lundt
90+6'S. Becher INP. Ault out
90+7'D. Edelman

Lineups

St. Louis City
3-4-3Coach: Yoann Damet
Sporting Kansas City
4-2-3-1Coach: Raphael Wicky
Avg rating6.89
Avg rating6.67
Benjamin Lundt6.039B. Lundt
Lukas MacNaughton6.65L. MacNaughton
Timo Baumgartl7.032T. Baumgartl
Dante Polvara7.721D. Polvara
Conrad Wallem6.06C. Wallem
Eduard Löwen7.210E. Löwen
Daniel Edelman7.224D. Edelman
Tomas Totland6.914T. Totland
Jeong Sang-bin8.077J. Sang-bin
Simon Becher6.911S. Becher
Marcel HartelC8.317M. Hartel
Stefan Cleveland7.030S. Cleveland
Ian James6.02I. James
Jansen Miller5.915J. Miller
Or Blorian6.35O. Blorian
Jayden Reid6.399J. Reid
Lasse Berg Johnsen6.64L. Berg Johnsen
Zorhan Bassong7.222Z. Bassong
Capita7.27Capita
Manu García7.26M. García
Calvin Harris6.511C. Harris
Dejan JoveljićC7.39D. Joveljić

St. Louis City Substitutes

20Rafael Santos46'for C. Wallem6.5
28Miguel Perez64'for S. Jeong6.2
99Jaziel Orozco88'for T. Totland6.3
7Tomáš Ostrák88'for E. Lowen6.6
29Palmer Ault90+6'for S. Becher
31Christian Olivares
27Fallou Fall
22Kyle Hiebert
59Mykhi Joyner

Sporting Kansas City Substitutes

18Emir Karić46'for J. Reid6.6
8Jacob Davis46'for I. James6.6
23Ethan Bartlow75'for O. Blorian6.7
20Kwaku Agyabeng76'for Z. Bassong6.6
17Stephen Afrifa85'for Capita6.7
1John Pulskamp
16Jacob Bartlett
14Macielo Tschantret
93Shapi Suleymanov

Match Stats

St. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
53%Ball Possession47%
5Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards1
20Total Shots12
5Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal4
14Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots5
15Fouls11
1Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves2
484Total Passes417
416Passes Accurate338
86%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
1669Elo Rating 1412
0.87Attack 1.12
1.01Defense 0.06
0%Hit Rate 0%
9.7Shots per Game 11.8
4.5Shots on Target 3.1
4.2Corners per Game 4.4
1.9Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+257 Elo
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3Wins · 30%
Draws330%
Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City4Wins · 40%
3.8Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer15/05/2025
St. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
22
Major League Soccer06/04/2025
Sporting Kansas CitySt. Louis City
20
Major League Soccer29/09/2024
St. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
31
Major League Soccer21/07/2024
Sporting Kansas CitySt. Louis City
11
Major League Soccer21/04/2024
Sporting Kansas CitySt. Louis City
33
Major League Soccer05/11/2023
Sporting Kansas CitySt. Louis City
21
Major League Soccer30/10/2023
St. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
14
Major League Soccer01/10/2023
St. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
41
Major League Soccer03/09/2023
Sporting Kansas CitySt. Louis City
21
Major League Soccer21/05/2023
St. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
40

Recent Form

St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
6W1D3L
23/05/2026
St. Louis CityAustin
30
W
20/05/2026
St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
4222
W
17/05/2026
DC UnitedSt. Louis City
11
D
14/05/2026
St. Louis CityLos Angeles FC
21
W
10/05/2026
Colorado RapidsSt. Louis City
01
W
03/05/2026
AustinSt. Louis City
20
L
30/04/2026
Chicago FireSt. Louis City
12
W
26/04/2026
St. Louis CitySan Jose Earthquakes
23
L
19/04/2026
Seattle SoundersSt. Louis City
41
L
16/04/2026
St. Louis CityFC Tulsa
40
W
Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
2W1D7L
24/05/2026
Sporting Kansas CityNew York Red Bulls
12
L
17/05/2026
AustinSporting Kansas City
12
W
14/05/2026
Sporting Kansas CityLos Angeles Galaxy
31
W
10/05/2026
Portland TimbersSporting Kansas City
60
L
02/05/2026
Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders
11
D
26/04/2026
Chicago FireSporting Kansas City
50
L
18/04/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsSporting Kansas City
30
L
15/04/2026
Colorado SpringsSporting Kansas City
30
L
12/04/2026
Sporting Kansas CitySan Jose Earthquakes
13
L
04/04/2026
Real Salt LakeSporting Kansas City
31
L

Referee Profile

A. Chapman140 matches

3.51Cards per match
3.42Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
21.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

A. Chapman3.51
Other referees4.39

3.51 cards a match, 0.88 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.39).

Cards come from 136 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps33187872:34+3861WWLWD
2FC DallasFC Dallas331510859:50+955DLWDW
3San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes331410956:48+852WDLDD
4St. Louis CitySt. Louis City331491058:48+1051LLLLD
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo331491043:42+151LWDDD
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3312111051:38+1347LDDWD
7Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3311111149:55-644WDDWL
8Portland TimbersPortland Timbers331271460:61-143WWWDL
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids331271446:47-143LDWDD
10Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3311101242:45-343LLDDL
11Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake331261551:51042LWWWD
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3310111253:57-441WWDWD
13San DiegoSan Diego339111357:62-538WLDDD
14AustinAustin338101542:63-2134LLWLL
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City33652239:81-4223DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3372:3461
2FC DallasFC Dallas3359:5055
3San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3356:4852
4St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3358:4851
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3343:4251
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3351:3847
7Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3349:5544
8Portland TimbersPortland Timbers3360:6143
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids3346:4743
10Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3342:4543
11Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3351:5142
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3353:5741
13San DiegoSan Diego3357:6238
14AustinAustin3342:6334
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City3339:8123
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About the St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

St. Louis City and Sporting Kansas City in the Major League Soccer table

The table shows a wide gap: St. Louis City are 4th in the Major League Soccer, while Sporting Kansas City sit 15th, 28 points behind. League goal record so far: St. Louis City 58-48, Sporting Kansas City 39-81. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.