Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Prediction

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg·Isa Simsek 20/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.17
SignalHIGHModel59%SurpriseMediumGap-9.3%
Red Bull Salzburg Rest
2 days
Sturm Graz Rest
3 days

Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz: the result in context

Red Bull Salzburg beat Sturm Graz 3-0 in the Bundesliga on 20 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Red Bull Salzburg had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Sturm Graz.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.7 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 8.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.57
X
23%4.50
2
21%4.75
Double Chance
1X
79%1.17
X2
44%2.31
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.42
No
38%2.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.78 + 1.12 = 2.90
Over 1.5
85%1.10
Over 2.5
67%1.36
Over 3.5
45%1.90
Under 1.5
15%6.50
Under 2.5
33%3.08
Under 3.5
55%1.84
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4 = 10
Over 8.5
66%1.17
Over 9.5
54%1.32
Over 10.5
44%1.58
Under 8.5
34%3.80
Under 9.5
46%2.88
Under 10.5
56%2.17
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8
Over 3.5
54%-
Over 4.5
34%-
Under 3.5
46%-
Under 4.5
66%-

Match Events

52'Damir Redzic INSota Kitano out
53'Karim Konate INYorbe Vertessen out
53'Edmund Baidoo INAboubacar Sidiki Camara out
58'Axel Kayombo INOumar Diakité out
66'Abubakr Barry INUmut Deger Tohumcu out
66'Valmir Matoshi INFilip Rozga Kucharczyk out
66'Simon Seidl INOtar Kiteishvili out
71'Nikolas VeratschnigAssist: Bartosz Mazurek
72'Jurgen HeilDissent
76'Kevin BomaAssist: Dominik Schmid
76'Jurgen Heil
79'Paul KollerFoul
83'Aboubacar Sidiki CamaraAssist: Sota Kitano
84'Luca Weinhandl INGizo Mamageishvili out
84'Arjan Malić INPetar Petrović out
86'Bartosz Mazurek INFrans Kratzig out

Lineups

Red Bull Salzburg
4-2-3-1Coach: D. Röhl
Sturm Graz
4-2-3-1Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Avg rating7.23
Avg rating6.04
Christian Zawieschitzky6.552C. Zawieschitzky
N. Veratschnig8.518N. Veratschnig
K. Boma8.444K. Boma
Valentin Zabransky7.847V. Zabransky
D. Schmid7.831D. Schmid
A. Barry6.932A. Barry
B. Mazurek7.715B. Mazurek
D. Redzic6.823D. Redzic
K. Konaté6.419K. Konaté
E. Baidoo7.020E. Baidoo
H. Tabaković6.49H. Tabaković
D. Khudyakov5.853D. Khudyakov
A. Malic6.623A. Malic
J. Quarshie6.52J. Quarshie
P. Koller6.230P. Koller
J. Heil5.228J. Heil
J. Gorenc Stankovič6.14J. Gorenc Stankovič
Luca Weinhandl6.439L. Weinhandl
Jacob Peter Hödl5.543J. Peter Hödl
S. Seidl5.919S. Seidl
V. Matoshi6.278V. Matoshi
A. Kayombo5.911A. Kayombo

Red Bull Salzburg Substitutes

33A. Camara53'for Edmund Baidoo83'7.9
1C. Früchtl
35J. Lindstrøm
8S. Kitano52'for Damir Redzic6.9
13F. Krätzig86'for Bartosz Mazurek7.2
39L. Morgalla
7U. Tohumcu66'for Abubakr Barry7.2
11Y. Vertessen53'for Karim Konate6.6
21T. Drexler

Sturm Graz Substitutes

26B. Beganović
14O. Diakité58'for Axel Kayombo6.3
6G. Haider
22A. Helac
10O. Kiteishvili66'for Simon Seidl6.0
15G. Mamageishvili84'for Luca Weinhandl5.8
21P. Petrović84'for Arjan Malić6.1
27L. Balbo
8F. Rózga66'for Valmir Matoshi6.3

Match Stats

Red Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
55%Ball Possession45%
3Corner Kicks8
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
15Total Shots14
7Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal7
10Shots Inside Box6
5Shots Outside Box8
3Blocked Shots5
11Fouls14
2Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves4
439Total Passes343
357Passes Accurate252
14Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
1771Elo Rating 1744
1.65Attack 1.98
1.68Defense 1.76
37%Hit Rate 66%
15.5Shots per Game 14.1
4.9Shots on Target 5.1
4.2Corners per Game 5.3
1.1Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.9 goals
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg1Wins · 10%
Draws440%
Sturm GrazSturm Graz5Wins · 50%
3.7Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga03/05/2026
Red Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
11
Bundesliga20/03/2026
Sturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
11
Bundesliga09/11/2025
Sturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
11
Bundesliga20/09/2025
Red Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
02
Bundesliga09/05/2025
Sturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
42
Bundesliga13/04/2025
Red Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
12
Bundesliga02/03/2025
Red Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
31
Bundesliga06/10/2024
Sturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
50
Bundesliga28/04/2024
Red Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
22
Cup04/04/2024
Red Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
34

Referee Profile

Isa Simsek83 matches

5.03Cards per match
4.73Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
21.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Isa Simsek5.03
Other referees4.62

5.03 cards a match, 0.41 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.62).

Cards come from 30 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna1090131:9+2227WWWWW
2Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg1073024:5+1924WWDWD
3Lask LinzLask Linz1061324:12+1219LWLDL
4Sturm GrazSturm Graz1053218:12+618DWWLW
5RiedRied1043318:17+115DWWWD
6TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg1042416:19-314WLWDD
7WSG WattensWSG Wattens1033413:15-212DWLLD
8Grazer AKGrazer AK102448:23-1510DLDDW
9SCR AltachSCR Altach1030710:16-69WLWLL
10Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau1022612:24-128LLLWL
11Austria ViennaAustria Vienna1021710:20-107LLLDW
12Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC101277:19-125LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna1031:927
2Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg1024:524
3Lask LinzLask Linz1024:1219
4Sturm GrazSturm Graz1018:1218
5RiedRied1018:1715
6TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg1016:1914
7WSG WattensWSG Wattens1013:1512
8Grazer AKGrazer AK108:2310
9SCR AltachSCR Altach1010:169
10Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau1012:248
11Austria ViennaAustria Vienna1010:207
12Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC107:195
PromotionRelegation

About the Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz in the Bundesliga table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd in the Bundesliga, 6 points ahead of Sturm Graz in 4th. League goal record so far: Red Bull Salzburg 24-5, Sturm Graz 18-12. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Sturm Graz have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.