Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz Prediction

UEFA Champions LeagueWorld World · Qualifying Round 3
Cup
Fenerbahçe
2-0
Finished
HT 2-0
Sturm Graz
Chobani Stadium, Istanbul·Chris Kavanagh, England 05/08/2026
FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
2-0
Finished
Sturm GrazSturm Graz

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.62
SignalGOODModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+13.5%
Fenerbahçe Rest
7 days
Sturm Graz Rest
4 days

Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz: result, form and history

Fenerbahçe beat Sturm Graz 2-0 in the UEFA Champions League on 5 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.34
X
18%5.17
2
22%7.75
Double Chance
1X
78%1.09
X2
40%3.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.83
No
43%1.88
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.78 + 1.59 = 3.37
Over 1.5
79%1.17
Over 2.5
58%1.53
Over 3.5
37%2.38
Under 1.5
21%4.80
Under 2.5
42%2.39
Under 3.5
63%1.57
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.3 = 10.1
Over 8.5
49%1.38
Over 9.5
41%1.68
Over 10.5
32%2.05
Under 8.5
51%2.75
Under 9.5
59%2.08
Under 10.5
68%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 3.2 = 5.6
Over 3.5
95%1.59
Over 4.5
76%2.20
Under 3.5
5%2.12
Under 4.5
24%1.58

Match Events

9'TaliscaAssist: K. Akturkoglu
21'J. Gorenc StankovicRoughing
30'J. Oosterwolde INA. Brown out
45'M. GreenwoodAssist: M. Asensio
46'S. Wlodarczyk INA. Kayombo out
58'J. HeilHolding
64'S. Seidl ING. Mamageishvili out
64'L. Weinhandl INR. Fosso out
64'S. Jatta INN. Weiper out
65'A. KayomboDiving
69'M. Greenwood INFred out
69'M. Asensio INI. Kahveci out
85'K. Akturkoglu INO. Aydin out
85'N. Semedo INM. Muldur out
87'J. Hodl INB. Beganovic out

Lineups

Fenerbahçe
4-2-3-1Coach: Ismail Kartal
Sturm Graz
4-4-2Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Avg rating7.24
Avg rating6.49
Mert Günok6.634M. Günok
Nélson Semedo6.927N. Semedo
Milan ŠkriniarC8.937M. Škriniar
Nathan Aké7.315N. Aké
Jayden Oosterwolde6.624J. Oosterwolde
Mattéo Guendouzi7.36M. Guendouzi
N'Golo Kanté7.391N. Kanté
Mason Greenwood7.311M. Greenwood
Marco Asensio7.710M. Asensio
Kerem Aktürkoğlu7.29K. Aktürkoğlu
Talisca7.294Talisca
Daniil Khudyakov7.953D. Khudyakov
Jurgen Heil6.228J. Heil
Albert Vallci6.35A. Vallci
Jeyland Mitchell6.72J. Mitchell
Emran Soglo6.518E. Soglo
Jacob Hödl5.943J. Hödl
Luca Weinhandl6.339L. Weinhandl
Jon Gorenc StankovićC7.24J. Gorenc Stanković
Simon Seidl6.219S. Seidl
Szymon Włodarczyk6.317S. Włodarczyk
Seedy Jatta5.920S. Jatta

Fenerbahçe Substitutes

3Archie Brown30'for J. Oosterwolde7.2
31Ederson
4Çağlar Söyüncü
14Yiğit Efe Demir
18Mert Müldür85'for N. Semedo
5İsmail Yüksek
7Fred69'for M. Greenwood6.9
17İrfan Can Kahveci69'for M. Asensio6.9
20Anthony Musaba
70Oğuz Aydın85'for K. Akturkoglu
19Vedat Muriqi
26Sidiki Cherif

Sturm Graz Substitutes

11Axel Kayombo46'for S. Wlodarczyk65'5.6
15Gizo Mamageishvili64'for S. Seidl7.3
80Ryan Fosso64'for L. Weinhandl6.7
44Nelson Weiper64'for S. Jatta6.3
32Christoph Wiener-Pucher
22Ammar Helac
21Petar Petrović
23Arjan Malić
27Luís Balbo
30Paul Koller
40Julian Halwachs
26Belmin Beganović87'for J. Hodl

Match Stats

FenerbahçeSturm Graz
72%Ball Possession28%
4Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards3
17Total Shots5
10Shots on Goal1
2Shots off Goal1
12Shots Inside Box3
5Shots Outside Box2
5Blocked Shots3
10Fouls19
4Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves8
583Total Passes222
525Passes Accurate164
90%Pass Accuracy74%

Team Comparison

FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
1848Elo Rating 1744
2.85Attack 1.98
1.29Defense 1.76
54%Hit Rate 66%
18.0Shots per Game 14.1
6.1Shots on Target 5.1
5.0Corners per Game 5.3
1.9Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+104 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.37 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 1.2 in second half)
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

FenerbahçeFenerbahçe1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
Sturm GrazSturm Graz0Wins · 0%
2.5Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored2 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

UEFA Europa League03/08/2017
FenerbahçeSturm Graz
11
UEFA Europa League27/07/2017
Sturm GrazFenerbahçe
12

Recent Form

FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
6W2D2L
29/07/2026
Gornik ZabrzeFenerbahçe
11
D21/07/2026
FenerbahçeGornik Zabrze
10
W
14/07/2026
Lask LinzFenerbahçe
12
W
11/07/2026
FenerbahçePogon Szczecin
40
W
08/07/2026
Admira WackerFenerbahçe
05
W
17/05/2026
FenerbahçeEyüpspor
33
D
09/05/2026
KonyasporFenerbahçe
03
W
02/05/2026
FenerbahçeBaşakşehir
31
W
26/04/2026
GalatasarayFenerbahçe
30
L
21/04/2026
KonyasporFenerbahçe
1000
L
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
7W2D1L
01/08/2026
WSG WattensSturm Graz
11
D28/07/2026
Heart Of MidlothianSturm Graz
02
W
24/07/2026
SeekirchenSturm Graz
03
W
21/07/2026
Sturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
40
W
15/07/2026
Sturm GrazPogon Szczecin
10
W
11/07/2026
Sturm GrazSanfrecce Hiroshima
41
W
08/07/2026
Sturm GrazKalsdorf
41
W
03/07/2026
Sturm GrazFK Košice
22
D
30/06/2026
Sturm GrazLNZ Cherkasy
26
L
26/06/2026
Sturm GrazMura
50
W

Referee Profile

Chris Kavanagh212 matches

4.12Cards per match
3.96Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
22.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Chris Kavanagh4.12
Other referees3.89

4.12 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.89).

Cards come from 203 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Champions League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain330014:5+99WWW
2Aston VillaAston Villa330012:3+99WWW
3LiverpoolLiverpool330012:7+59WWW
4Real MadridReal Madrid330010:5+59WWW
5Real BetisReal Betis33007:4+39WWW
6VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart32107:2+57DWW
7ArsenalArsenal32106:2+47DWW
8BarcelonaBarcelona320111:6+56LWW
9ComoComo320110:5+56WLW
10Manchester CityManchester City32019:5+46WLW
11Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV32019:6+36WWL
12Sporting CPSporting CP32017:4+36LWW
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund32015:4+16WLW
14Bayern MünchenBayern München312010:5+55DDW
15AS RomaAS Roma31118:5+34WLD
16Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid31114:3+14DWL
17Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk31114:3+14LWD
18PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven31112:204WLD
19VillarrealVillarreal31028:803LWL
20InterInter31025:6-13WLL
21Manchester UnitedManchester United31025:6-13LLW
22NapoliNapoli31025:7-23WLL
23GalatasarayGalatasaray31026:9-33WLL
24Lask LinzLask Linz31026:9-33WLL
25Sabah FASabah FA31023:6-33LWL
26FeyenoordFeyenoord31024:8-43LWL
27LensLens31023:7-43LLW
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt31024:9-53LWL
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC31023:8-53LLW
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig31023:8-53LWL
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe30213:9-62DLD
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha30124:7-31DLL
33VikingViking30125:9-41LDL
34FC PortoFC Porto30032:6-40LLL
35LilleLille30034:10-60LLL
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava30031:13-120LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain314:59
2Aston VillaAston Villa312:39
3LiverpoolLiverpool312:79
4Real MadridReal Madrid310:59
5Real BetisReal Betis37:49
6VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart37:27
7ArsenalArsenal36:27
8BarcelonaBarcelona311:66
9ComoComo310:56
10Manchester CityManchester City39:56
11Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV39:66
12Sporting CPSporting CP37:46
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund35:46
14Bayern MünchenBayern München310:55
15AS RomaAS Roma38:54
16Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid34:34
17Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk34:34
18PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven32:24
19VillarrealVillarreal38:83
20InterInter35:63
21Manchester UnitedManchester United35:63
22NapoliNapoli35:73
23GalatasarayGalatasaray36:93
24Lask LinzLask Linz36:93
25Sabah FASabah FA33:63
26FeyenoordFeyenoord34:83
27LensLens33:73
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt34:93
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC33:83
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig33:83
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe33:92
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha34:71
33VikingViking35:91
34FC PortoFC Porto32:60
35LilleLille34:100
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava31:130

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Slovan Bratislava
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
Fenerbahçe
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Dinamo Zagreb
Seeded
Sturm Graz
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Celje
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded

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About the Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Champions League

More UEFA Champions League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Champions League Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fenerbahçe have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Sturm Graz have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Fenerbahçe and Sturm Graz have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.