River Plate vs Santa Fe Prediction

River Plate
1-1
After Penalties
HT 0-0AET 0-0PEN 7-8
Santa Fe
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires·E. Ostojich 27/08/2026
River PlateRiver Plate
1-1
After Penalties
Santa FeSanta Fe

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.4 / 10
Value Analysis
54%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Under 5.5
1.96
SignalNEUTRALModel46%SurpriseHighGap+6.5%
River Plate Rest
3 days
Santa Fe Rest
4 days

River Plate vs Santa Fe: the result in context

Santa Fe beat River Plate on penalties (8-7) after a 1-1 draw in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 27 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 3 previous meetings produced 1.0 goals a game. Referee E. Ostojich averages 6.62 cards a game, 1.44 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%1.30
X
39%4.89
2
9%11.63
Double Chance
1X
91%1.04
X2
48%3.42
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.76
No
55%1.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.5 + 0.93 = 2.43
Over 1.5
71%1.36
Over 2.5
39%2.15
Over 3.5
20%3.85
Under 1.5
29%3.00
Under 2.5
61%1.69
Under 3.5
80%1.23
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 2.4 = 8.2
Over 8.5
56%1.75
Over 9.5
44%2.20
Over 10.5
34%2.83
Under 8.5
44%2.00
Under 9.5
56%1.60
Under 10.5
66%1.35
Cards
Projected Cards: 3.2 + 3.8 = 7
Over 3.5
92%1.17
Over 4.5
66%1.40
Under 3.5
8%3.65
Under 4.5
34%2.56

Match Events

36'K. D. Toscano Bassa INJ. Torres out
52'S. DriussiAssist: G. Montiel
58'A. Zapata INF. Fagundez out
58'J. Obrian INL. Palacios out
58'N. Bustos INM. Lovera out
62'T. Galvan INFausto Vera out
62'S. Driussi INR. Borre out
71'G. MontielFoul
76'T. Andrada INF. Gonzalez out
76'G. Montiel INJ. Meza out
80'F. Fagundez(Penalty)
82'A. Moreno INJ. Freitas out
82'M. AcunaUnsportsmanlike conduct
83'C. MaflaTripping
87'H. Rodallega INJ. Angulo out

Penalty Shootout7 - 8

1T. Almada(Penalty)
1M. Lovera(Penalty)
2A. Correa(Penalty)
2D. Torres(Penalty)
3N. Otamendi(Penalty)
3E. Olivera(Penalty missed)
4J. Freitas(Penalty)
4L. Palacios(Penalty)
5R. Borre(Penalty missed)
5F. Fagundez(Penalty)
6L. Martinez Quarta(Penalty missed)
6J. Torres(Penalty missed)
7Fausto Vera(Penalty)
7I. R. Scarpeta Silgado(Penalty)
8F. Gonzalez(Penalty missed)
8J. Angulo(Penalty missed)
9M. Acuna(Penalty)
9H. Palacios(Penalty)
10J. Meza(Penalty)
10C. Mafla(Penalty)
11S. Beltran(Penalty missed)
11W. Asprilla(Penalty)

Lineups

River Plate
4-2-3-1Coach: Eduardo Coudet
Santa Fe
4-2-3-1Coach: Jose Lopez Fierro
Avg rating6.93
Avg rating6.83
Santiago Beltrán6.941S. Beltrán
Gonzalo Montiel7.329G. Montiel
Lucas Martínez Quarta6.728L. Martínez Quarta
Nicolás OtamendiC7.530N. Otamendi
Marcos Acuña7.521M. Acuña
Aníbal Moreno6.96A. Moreno
Tobías Andrada7.650T. Andrada
Tomás Galván6.326T. Galván
Ángel Correa6.510Á. Correa
Thiago Almada7.923T. Almada
Sebastián Driussi6.79S. Driussi
Weibmar Asprilla8.312W. Asprilla
Helibelton Palacios6.913H. Palacios
Emanuel Olivera6.618E. Olivera
Ivan Scarpeta7.215I. Scarpeta
Christian Mafla6.532C. Mafla
Daniel Torres6.916D. Torres
Kilian Toscano6.76K. Toscano
Jader Obrian6.577J. Obrian
Nahuel Bustos6.319N. Bustos
Alexis Zapata7.710A. Zapata
Hugo RodallegaC6.711H. Rodallega

River Plate Substitutes

15Fausto Vera62'for T. Galvan6.7
19Rafael Borré62'for S. Driussi6.7
31Facundo González76'for T. Andrada6.3
24Juan Cruz Meza76'for G. Montiel6.5
35Joaquín Freitas82'for A. Moreno6.9
33Ezequiel Centurión
43Valentín Lucero
44Lucas Silva
25Lautaro Pereyra

Santa Fe Substitutes

7Jhojan Torres36'for K. D. Toscano Bassa6.6
14Luis Angel Palacios58'for J. Obrian6.5
9Franco Fagúndez58'for A. Zapata80'6.9
17Maximiliano Lovera58'for N. Bustos6.7
24Jeison Angulo87'for H. Rodallega6.3
30Emiliano Contreras
42Jhojan Zúñiga
43Jean Caicedo
4Mateo Puerta
3Victor Moreno
39Cristhian Portocarrero
40Martin Palacios

Match Stats

River PlateSanta Fe
72%Ball Possession28%
6Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards1
31Total Shots12
11Shots on Goal4
16Shots off Goal7
18Shots Inside Box9
13Shots Outside Box3
4Blocked Shots1
15Fouls10
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves8
584Total Passes226
499Passes Accurate137
85%Pass Accuracy61%

Team Comparison

River PlateRiver Plate
Santa FeSanta Fe
1761Elo Rating 1666
1.68Attack 1.38
2.30Defense 1.97
61%Hit Rate 58%
20.1Shots per Game 14.3
6.5Shots on Target 5.4
7.7Corners per Game 3.9
1.4Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend33% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk60%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

River PlateRiver Plate
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)
Santa FeSanta Fe
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

River PlateRiver Plate1Wins · 33%
Draws267%
Santa FeSanta Fe0Wins · 0%
1.0Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
33%3+ goals1 of 3

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Sudamericana20/08/2026
Santa FeRiver Plate
00
CONMEBOL Libertadores20/05/2021
River PlateSanta Fe
21
CONMEBOL Libertadores07/05/2021
Santa FeRiver Plate
00

Referee Profile

E. Ostojich179 matches

6.62Cards per match
6.24Yellow cards per match
0.38Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

E. Ostojich6.62
Other referees5.18

6.62 cards a match, 1.44 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).

Cards come from 110 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1River PlateRiver Plate64209:3+614WDWWW
2RB BragantinoRB Bragantino631212:5+710WDWLW
3Carabobo FCCarabobo FC63036:5+19LWLWL
4BloomingBlooming60153:17-141LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1River PlateRiver Plate69:314
2RB BragantinoRB Bragantino612:510
3Carabobo FCCarabobo FC66:59
4BloomingBlooming63:171
Promotion

About the River Plate vs Santa Fe forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

River Plate have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.