Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Boca Juniors
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Sao Paulo
Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires·P. Maza 09/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.44
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+4.0%
Boca Juniors Rest
3 days
Sao Paulo Rest
3 days

Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo: the result in context

Boca Juniors beat Sao Paulo 1-0 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 9 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Sao Paulo tend to win more corners, 7.0 a game to 4.9 for Boca Juniors.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.95
X
29%3.04
2
21%4.55
Double Chance
1X
79%1.19
X2
50%1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.24
No
54%1.59
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.29 + 0.77 = 2.06
Over 1.5
69%1.53
Over 2.5
37%2.65
Over 3.5
20%5.30
Under 1.5
31%2.45
Under 2.5
63%1.46
Under 3.5
80%1.14
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 2.4 = 8.4
Over 8.5
55%1.53
Over 9.5
43%1.88
Over 10.5
33%2.43
Under 8.5
45%2.31
Under 9.5
57%1.84
Under 10.5
67%1.48
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.8 = 5.1
Over 3.5
75%1.35
Over 4.5
58%1.67
Under 3.5
25%3.05
Under 4.5
42%2.10

Match Events

52'Miguel Merentiel
63'Luciano INGustavo Santana out
70'Jonathan CalleriDissent
75'Dorival Silvestre JúniorDissent
76'Red card cancelledDomingos Duarte
79'Miguel Merentiel INSebastián Villa out
81'Marcos Antonio INDanielzinho out
82'Jonathan Calleri INAldemir Ferreira out
85'Alan Velasco INEnner Valencia out
90+1'Artur Victor Guimarães INAndre Silva out
90+1'Pablo Maia INNewton out
90+4'Enner ValenciaFoul

Lineups

Boca Juniors
4-3-3Coach: R. Arruabarrena
Sao Paulo
3-4-2-1Coach: Dorival Júnior
Avg rating6.71
Avg rating6.45
Á. Montero6.71Á. Montero
L. Lozano6.917L. Lozano
L. Di Lollo6.92L. Di Lollo
F. Herrera7.342F. Herrera
L. Blanco6.83L. Blanco
T. Belmonte6.58T. Belmonte
L. Paredes7.25L. Paredes
S. Ascacíbar6.125S. Ascacíbar
A. Velasco6.220A. Velasco
M. Merentiel7.616M. Merentiel
L. Flores6.419L. Flores
Rafael5.923Rafael
Domingos Duarte7.022D. Duarte
R. Arboleda7.15R. Arboleda
Sabino6.535Sabino
Lucas Ramon6.019L. Ramon
Pablo Maia6.529P. Maia
Marcos Antônio6.48M. Antônio
Iago7.112Iago
Artur6.637Artur
Luciano5.810Luciano
J. Calleri6.29J. Calleri

Boca Juniors Substitutes

12L. Brey
15W. Alarcón
4N. Figal
24D. Gorosito
7C. Palacios
26Marco Pellegrino
23C. Rey
11Á. Romero
46M. Satas
30E. Valencia85'for Alan Velasco90+4'6.2
22S. Villa79'for Miguel Merentiel6.5
21K. Zenón

Sao Paulo Substitutes

31Carlos Coronel
43G. Santana63'for Luciano6.3
48D. Ferreira
18Wendell
80Cauly
17André Silva90+1'for Artur Victor Guimarães
27Victor Sá
2R. Tolói
94Danielzinho81'for Marcos Antonio6.3
11Ferreira82'for Jonathan Calleri6.7
34Tetê
28Newton90+1'for Pablo Maia

Match Stats

Boca JuniorsSao Paulo
51%Ball Possession49%
4Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards1
11Total Shots8
2Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal4
6Shots Inside Box7
5Shots Outside Box1
3Blocked Shots1
6Fouls8
3Goalkeeper Saves2
473Total Passes471
385Passes Accurate369
8Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors
Sao PauloSao Paulo
1815Elo Rating 1683
2.02Attack 1.03
1.98Defense 1.92
64%Hit Rate 42%
13.7Shots per Game 15.9
3.8Shots on Target 4.1
4.9Corners per Game 7.0
1.7Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+131 Elo
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Sao PauloSao Paulo
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Referee Profile

P. Maza190 matches

5.66Cards per match
5.26Yellow cards per match
0.41Red cards per match
22.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

P. Maza5.66
Other referees5.34

5.66 cards a match, 0.32 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.34).

Cards come from 167 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Sao PauloSao Paulo63306:1+512WDDDW
2O'HigginsO'Higgins63128:6+210WLDWL
3MillonariosMillonarios62227:708LDWDW
4Boston RiverBoston River61055:12-73LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Sao PauloSao Paulo66:112
2O'HigginsO'Higgins68:610
3MillonariosMillonarios67:78
4Boston RiverBoston River65:123
Promotion

About the Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Boca Juniors and Sao Paulo have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.