Swansea vs Burnley Prediction

Swansea
3-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Burnley
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea 12/09/2026
SwanseaSwansea
3-1
Finished
BurnleyBurnley

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.29
SignalGOODModel54%SurpriseMediumGap-4.2%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.67
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+9.1%
Swansea Rest
3 days
Burnley Rest
3 days

Swansea vs Burnley: result, form and history

Swansea beat Burnley 3-1 in the Championship on 12 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Swansea had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Burnley.

Burnley have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%2.06
X
25%3.44
2
24%3.40
Double Chance
1X
76%1.29
X2
49%1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.67
No
44%2.08
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.59 + 0.97 = 2.56
Over 1.5
75%1.26
Over 2.5
53%1.87
Over 3.5
30%3.10
Under 1.5
25%3.58
Under 2.5
47%1.91
Under 3.5
70%1.35
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.5 = 10.3
Over 8.5
67%1.67
Over 9.5
56%2.10
Over 10.5
46%2.67
Under 8.5
33%2.10
Under 9.5
44%1.68
Under 10.5
54%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
55%1.63
Over 4.5
36%2.30
Under 3.5
45%2.19
Under 4.5
64%1.57

Match Events

13'Adam Idah
33'Moussa Kounfolo YeoAssist: Elijah Just
45'Josh Key INFilip Lissah out
54'Aaron Ramsey INLucas Pires Silva out
58'Largie RamazaniAssist: Igor Júlio
59'Lucas Pires SilvaArgument
59'Moussa Kounfolo YeoArgument
64'Moussa Kounfolo Yeo INRonald Pereira Martins out
64'Adam Idah INZan Vipotnik out
65'Ugo Raghouber INJamie Vardy out
68'Zan VipotnikAssist: Ronald Pereira Martins
72'Filip LissahFoul
77'Elijah Just INGoncalo Franco out
82'Oliver Sonne INAndréas Hountondji out
82'Zeki Amdouni INReo Hatate out
82'Largie Ramazani INArmando Broja out
85'Stephen Eustáquio INJay Fulton out

Lineups

Swansea
4-2-3-1Coach: Vítor Matos
Burnley
4-2-3-1Coach: N. Hayen
Avg rating6.94
Avg rating6.33
L. Vigouroux7.422L. Vigouroux
J. Key7.02J. Key
B. Cabango7.05B. Cabango
S. Welsh7.323S. Welsh
J. Tymon6.514J. Tymon
S. Eustáquio6.546S. Eustáquio
M. Stamenić6.96M. Stamenić
E. Just7.18E. Just
M. Widell6.77M. Widell
M. Yeo7.649M. Yeo
A. Idah7.933A. Idah
M. Weiß5.51M. Weiß
O. Sonne6.322O. Sonne
K. Walker6.72K. Walker
Igor7.444Igor
C. Roberts5.914C. Roberts
U. Raghouber5.98U. Raghouber
Max Alleyne6.43M. Alleyne
A. Ramsey6.321A. Ramsey
J. Laurent6.029J. Laurent
L. Ramazani6.919L. Ramazani
Z. Amdouni6.211Z. Amdouni

Swansea Substitutes

1A. Fisher
17Gonçalo Franco77'for Elijah Just6.4
4J. Fulton85'for Stephen Eustáquio6.4
26F. Lissah45'for Josh Key72'6.1
30Joseph Okopu
20Tiago Parente
35Ronald64'for Moussa Kounfolo Yeo6.8
3J. Seelt
9Z. Vipotnik64'for Adam Idah68'7.6

Burnley Substitutes

9J. Vardy65'for Ugo Raghouber6.6
23Lucas Pires54'for Aaron Ramsey59'5.5
17A. Hountondji82'for Oliver Sonne6.8
5R. Hatate82'for Zeki Amdouni6.1
18H. Ekdal
37G. Coudert
30L. Castell
27A. Broja82'for Largie Ramazani6.9
15A. Ahmedhodžić

Match Stats

SwanseaBurnley
54%Ball Possession46%
3Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots18
6Shots on Goal6
4Shots off Goal8
9Shots Inside Box11
4Shots Outside Box7
3Blocked Shots4
7Fouls7
4Offsides4
5Goalkeeper Saves2
552Total Passes454
472Passes Accurate368
86%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

SwanseaSwansea
BurnleyBurnley
1673Elo Rating 1582
0.81Attack 1.69
1.12Defense 0.93
50%Hit Rate 17%
10.8Shots per Game 12.8
3.1Shots on Target 4.4
4.4Corners per Game 4.3
1.5Cards per Game 1.7

Game State Tendencies

SwanseaSwansea
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
BurnleyBurnley
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

SwanseaSwansea0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
BurnleyBurnley4Wins · 100%
2.5Avg Goals
25%Both teams scored1 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

Championship15/03/2025
SwanseaBurnley
02
Championship10/11/2024
BurnleySwansea
10
Championship02/01/2023
SwanseaBurnley
12
Championship15/10/2022
BurnleySwansea
40

Recent Form

SwanseaSwansea
5W2D3L
08/09/2026
SouthamptonSwansea
31
L
05/09/2026
SwanseaWrexham
00
D
01/09/2026
SwanseaWatford
20
W
29/08/2026
DerbySwansea
03
W
22/08/2026
SwanseaSheffield Utd
00
D
15/08/2026
Stoke CitySwansea
12
W
08/08/2026
SwanseaBirmingham
01
L
01/08/2026
SwanseaLeganes
10
W
28/07/2026
Merthyr TownSwansea
30
L
24/07/2026
SwanseaUdinese
20
W
BurnleyBurnley
1W4D5L
08/09/2026
WrexhamBurnley
11
D
05/09/2026
BurnleyBristol City
12
L
02/09/2026
BurnleyMiddlesbrough
11
D
29/08/2026
NorwichBurnley
41
L
26/08/2026
BradfordBurnley
4020
L
23/08/2026
West BromBurnley
31
L
16/08/2026
BurnleyWest Ham
22
D
08/08/2026
BurnleyNotts County
4131
W
02/08/2026
BurnleyTorino
01
L
29/07/2026
BurnleyEspanyol
22
D

League Table

Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1384130:17+1328WWDWW
2SwanseaSwansea1382320:13+726WLLWW
3WolvesWolves1373323:16+724WWDWL
4West BromWest Brom1373319:14+524WDWWL
5SouthamptonSouthampton1383228:13+1523WWDWW
6BirminghamBirmingham1365223:13+1023WLWWW
7Stoke CityStoke City1372420:16+423WDWLW
8West HamWest Ham1364333:18+1522LLWWD
9QPRQPR1355321:16+520LWLWD
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1354417:15+219WDWLW
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1354416:15+119DWDWW
12MillwallMillwall1353523:21+218WLDLW
13BlackburnBlackburn1353519:20-118LWLWW
14Bristol CityBristol City1353515:17-218WDLLD
15NorwichNorwich1350823:24-115WWLLL
16LincolnLincoln1343614:23-915LWDLL
17CardiffCardiff1335519:20-114LWDWL
18WrexhamWrexham1335515:19-414LLWLD
19BoltonBolton1342718:26-814LLDWL
20CharltonCharlton1335511:21-1014LLLDD
21WatfordWatford1332812:23-1111LLWLL
22BurnleyBurnley1316617:25-89DLLDW
23DerbyDerby1314811:25-147LDLLD
24PrestonPreston13121010:27-175LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1330:1728
2SwanseaSwansea1320:1326
3WolvesWolves1323:1624
4West BromWest Brom1319:1424
5SouthamptonSouthampton1328:1323
6BirminghamBirmingham1323:1323
7Stoke CityStoke City1320:1623
8West HamWest Ham1333:1822
9QPRQPR1321:1620
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1317:1519
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1316:1519
12MillwallMillwall1323:2118
13BlackburnBlackburn1319:2018
14Bristol CityBristol City1315:1718
15NorwichNorwich1323:2415
16LincolnLincoln1314:2315
17CardiffCardiff1319:2014
18WrexhamWrexham1315:1914
19BoltonBolton1318:2614
20CharltonCharlton1311:2114
21WatfordWatford1312:2311
22BurnleyBurnley1317:259
23DerbyDerby1311:257
24PrestonPreston1310:275
PromotionRelegation

About the Swansea vs Burnley forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Swansea and Burnley in the Championship table

The table shows a wide gap: Swansea are 2nd in the Championship, while Burnley sit 22nd, 17 points behind. League goal record so far: Swansea 20-13, Burnley 17-25. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Burnley have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.