Southampton vs Swansea Prediction
England · Regular Season - 6
08/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
90%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalSTRONGModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+7.6%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.64
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+5.5%
Southampton Rest
3 days
Swansea Rest
2 days
Southampton vs Swansea: the result in context
Southampton beat Swansea 3-1 in the Championship on 8 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Southampton have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 2.8 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
163%1.83
X30%3.75
27%4.00
Double Chance
1X93%1.22
X236%1.93
Both Teams to Score
Yes57%1.67
No43%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.48 + 1.11 = 2.59
Over 1.575%1.23
Over 2.553%1.75
Over 3.529%2.87
Under 1.525%3.85
Under 2.547%2.06
Under 3.571%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.6 + 3.7 = 10.3
Over 8.564%1.45
Over 9.554%1.80
Over 10.548%2.21
Under 8.536%2.56
Under 9.546%1.95
Under 10.552%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.1 = 3.9
Over 3.555%1.73
Over 4.535%2.44
Under 3.545%2.00
Under 4.565%1.48
Match Events
9'Finn AzazAssist: Flynn Downes
33'Cyle LarinAssist: James Bree
45'Joseph Amankwaah Opoku INRonald Pereira Martins out
52'Zan Vipotnik(Penalty)
54'Ronald Pereira MartinsFoul
63'Jay Fulton INmelker widell out
63'Elijah Just INStephen Eustáquio out
70'Zan Vipotnik INAdam Idah out
76'Tom Fellows INKuryu Matsuki out
78'Moussa Kounfolo Yeo INEom Ji-Sung out
78'Léo ScienzaAssist: Kuryu Matsuki
85'Cyle Larin INDivin Mubama out
85'Léo Scienza INSamuel Edozie out
90+2'James Ward-Prowse INCameron Bragg out
Lineups
SouthamptonSwansea
4-2-3-1Coach: Vítor MatosAvg ratingAvg rating
1D. Peretz
14J. Bree
15N. Wood-Gordon
13K. Schlotterbeck
3R. Manning
4F. Downes
30J. Ward-Prowse
18T. Fellows
10F. Azaz
7L. Scienza
9C. Larin
22L. Vigouroux
26F. Lissah
5B. Cabango
23S. Welsh
14J. Tymon
4J. Fulton
6M. Stamenić
30J. Okopu
8E. Just
49M. Yeo
9Z. VipotnikSouthampton Substitutes
11L. Dobbin
26Cameron Bragg90+2'for James Ward-Prowse
6Z. Abbott
23S. Edozie85'for Léo Scienza
25G. Long
27K. Matsuki76'for Tom Fellows
28D. Mubama85'for Cyle Larin
34Welington
5J. Stephens
Swansea Substitutes
10Eom Ji-Sung78'for Moussa Kounfolo Yeo
46S. Eustáquio63'for Elijah Just
1A. Fisher
33A. Idah70'for Zan Vipotnik
2J. Key
20Tiago Parente
35Ronald45'for Joseph Amankwaah Opoku54'
3J. Seelt
7M. Widell63'for Jay Fulton
Match Stats
SouthamptonSwansea 47%Ball Possession53%
9Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots10
4Shots on Goal2
8Shots off Goal4
16Shots Inside Box4
0Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots4
10Fouls10
5Offsides3
1Goalkeeper Saves1
449Total Passes498
384Passes Accurate427
86%Pass Accuracy86%
Team Comparison
SouthamptonSwansea1794Elo Rating 1673
1.31Attack 0.81
2.18Defense 1.12
63%Hit Rate 50%
14.1Shots per Game 10.8
4.6Shots on Target 3.1
4.1Corners per Game 4.4
2.6Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+122 Elo
💎Value Analysis Identified
Game State Tendencies
Southampton- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.3 in second half)
Swansea- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 6 meetings, all competitions
Southampton4Wins · 67%Draws233%
Swansea0Wins · 0%
0Wins · 0%2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
67%3+ goals4 of 6
Previous meetings
18/04/2026SwanseaSouthampton12
18/10/2025SouthamptonSwansea00
12/01/2025SouthamptonSwansea30
20/01/2024SwanseaSouthampton13
26/12/2023SouthamptonSwansea50
08/01/2022SwanseaSouthampton2131
Recent Form
Southampton6W2D2L
05/09/2026
LincolnSouthampton
LincolnSouthampton11
D01/09/2026
BirminghamSouthampton
BirminghamSouthampton11
D29/08/2026Southampton
Millwall
25/08/2026SouthamptonMillwall51
WSouthampton
West Ham14
L22/08/2026Southampton
Stoke City31
W16/08/2026
WatfordSouthampton
08/08/2026WatfordSouthampton21
L
ColchesterSouthampton02
W01/08/2026
Preußen MünsterSouthampton
Preußen MünsterSouthampton12
W24/07/2026
Eintracht BraunschweigSouthampton
Eintracht BraunschweigSouthampton01
W18/07/2026
EastleighSouthampton
EastleighSouthampton13
WSwansea5W2D3L
05/09/2026Swansea
Wrexham
SwanseaWrexham00
D01/09/2026SwanseaWatford
SwanseaWatford20
W29/08/2026
DerbySwansea
DerbySwansea03
W22/08/2026Swansea
Sheffield Utd
SwanseaSheffield Utd00
D15/08/2026Stoke CitySwansea
08/08/2026Stoke CitySwansea12
WSwanseaBirmingham01
L01/08/2026Swansea
Leganes
SwanseaLeganes10
W28/07/2026
Merthyr TownSwansea
Merthyr TownSwansea30
L24/07/2026Swansea
Udinese
SwanseaUdinese20
W21/07/2026Swansea
VfL Bochum
SwanseaVfL Bochum02
LLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 30:17 | +13 | 28 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 20:13 | +7 | 26 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23:16 | +7 | 24 | WWDWL |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19:14 | +5 | 24 | WDWWL |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28:13 | +15 | 23 | WWDWW |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23:13 | +10 | 23 | WLWWW |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20:16 | +4 | 23 | WDWLW |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 33:18 | +15 | 22 | LLWWD |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21:16 | +5 | 20 | LWLWD |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17:15 | +2 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 19 | DWDWW |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 23:21 | +2 | 18 | WLDLW |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15:17 | -2 | 18 | WDLLD |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23:24 | -1 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14:23 | -9 | 15 | LWDLL |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 14 | LWDWL |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 14 | LLWLD |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18:26 | -8 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11:21 | -10 | 14 | LLLDD |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12:23 | -11 | 11 | LLWLL |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 9 | DLLDW |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11:25 | -14 | 7 | LDLLD |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10:27 | -17 | 5 | LDLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 | Wolves | 13 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 13 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 10:27 | 5 |
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About the Southampton vs Swansea forecast
The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Southampton and Swansea in the Championship table
In the Championship table, Swansea are 2nd and Southampton 5th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Southampton 28-13, Swansea 20-13. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.