Switzerland vs Slovenia Prediction

Switzerland
2-1
Finished
HT 2-1
Slovenia
Swissporarena, Lucerne·Ivan Kruzliak 03/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.33
SignalHIGHModel75%SurpriseMediumGap+2.8%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.33
SignalHIGHModel77%SurpriseMediumGap+3.6%
Switzerland Rest
4 days
Slovenia Rest
4 days

Switzerland vs Slovenia: result, form and history

Switzerland beat Slovenia 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 3 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Switzerland had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Slovenia.

Referee Ivan Kruzliak averages 5.02 cards a game, 0.85 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
77%1.33
X
17%5.00
2
6%10.30
Double Chance
1X
94%1.06
X2
23%3.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%2.32
No
60%1.54
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.64 + 0.42 = 2.06
Over 1.5
74%1.26
Over 2.5
50%1.91
Over 3.5
30%3.25
Under 1.5
26%3.55
Under 2.5
50%1.92
Under 3.5
70%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 2.9 = 8.7
Over 8.5
55%1.75
Over 9.5
44%2.25
Over 10.5
32%3.01
Under 8.5
45%2.01
Under 9.5
56%1.60
Under 10.5
68%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.2 + 1.9 = 3.1
Over 3.5
37%1.88
Over 4.5
19%3.20
Under 3.5
63%1.82
Under 4.5
81%1.31

Match Events

2'Zan VipotnikAssist: Aljosa Matko
10'Erik JanžaOG
23'Zan VipotnikFoul
28'David ZecFoul
29'Vanja DrkusicFoul
38'Dan Ndoye
40'Michel AebischerFoul
45'Vanja Drkusic INDavid Brekalo out
58'Jaka BijolFoul
64'Sandi Lovric INAdam Gnezda Čerin out
64'Aljosa Matko INTjas Begic out
67'Ricardo Rodríguez INSascha Britschgi out
67'Michel Aebischer INDjibril Sow out
77'Zeki Amdouni INWinsley Boteli Mokango out
78'Zan Vipotnik INŽan Celar out
79'Erik JanžaFoul
87'Dan Ndoye INFabian Rieder out
87'Zachary Athekame INAdrian Bajrami out
89'Danijel Sturm INTomi Horvat out

Lineups

Switzerland
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Yakin
Slovenia
5-4-1Coach: B. Cesar
Avg rating6.60
Avg rating6.22
G. Kobel6.41G. Kobel
Z. Athekame6.916Z. Athekame
N. Elvedi6.84N. Elvedi
M. Akanji7.65M. Akanji
R. Rodríguez6.613R. Rodríguez
A. Jashari7.014A. Jashari
R. Freuler6.58R. Freuler
M. Aebischer6.620M. Aebischer
J. Manzambi6.29J. Manzambi
D. Ndoye7.411D. Ndoye
Z. Amdouni6.010Z. Amdouni
J. Oblak6.91J. Oblak
Ž. Karničnik5.92Ž. Karničnik
V. Drkušić5.721V. Drkušić
J. Bijol6.26J. Bijol
D. Zec6.117D. Zec
E. Janža5.113E. Janža
A. Matko6.620A. Matko
M. Zabukovnik6.34M. Zabukovnik
S. Lovrić5.68S. Lovrić
D. Šturm6.315D. Šturm
Z. Vipotnik7.718Z. Vipotnik

Switzerland Substitutes

19Winsley Boteli Mokango77'for Zeki Amdouni5.9
7Joël Monteiro
12Y. Mvogo
21M. Keller
18E. Cömert
2S. Britschgi67'for Ricardo Rodríguez6.3
22F. Rieder87'for Dan Ndoye6.3
3A. Bajrami87'for Zachary Athekame6.7
23A. Sanches
17I. Schmidt
6V. Sierro
15D. Sow67'for Michel Aebischer6.4

Slovenia Substitutes

23D. Brekalo45'for Vanja Drkusic6.4
11Ž. Celar78'for Zan Vipotnik6.4
10T. Elšnik
22A. Čerin64'for Sandi Lovric6.0
19T. Horvat89'for Danijel Sturm6.0
5S. Kuzmić
14T. Svetlin
7J. Urbančič
16I. Vekič
12M. Vidovšek
3J. Balkovec
9T. Begić64'for Aljosa Matko6.3

Match Stats

SwitzerlandSlovenia
67%Ball Possession33%
4Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards5
13Total Shots10
6Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box7
3Shots Outside Box3
5Blocked Shots3
8Fouls15
3Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves6
584Total Passes289
518Passes Accurate216
15Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

SwitzerlandSwitzerland
SloveniaSlovenia
1786Elo Rating 1563
2.49Attack 1.30
2.63Defense 2.13
86%Hit Rate 46%
17.9Shots per Game 11.2
7.5Shots on Target 3.1
5.4Corners per Game 4.7
0.7Cards per Game 3.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+223 Elo
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

SwitzerlandSwitzerland
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
SloveniaSlovenia
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

SwitzerlandSwitzerland1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
SloveniaSlovenia0Wins · 0%
1.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

World Cup - Qualification Europe13/10/2025
SloveniaSwitzerland
00
World Cup - Qualification Europe08/09/2025
SwitzerlandSlovenia
30

Recent Form

SloveniaSlovenia
1W6D3L
29/09/2026
SloveniaFYR Macedonia
20
W
26/09/2026
SloveniaScotland
00
D
07/06/2026
CroatiaSlovenia
21
L
04/06/2026
SloveniaCyprus
11
D
18/11/2025
SwedenSlovenia
11
D
15/11/2025
SloveniaKosovo
02
L
13/10/2025
SloveniaSwitzerland
00
D
10/10/2025
KosovoSlovenia
00
D
08/09/2025
SwitzerlandSlovenia
30
L
05/09/2025
SloveniaSweden
22
D

Referee Profile

Ivan Kruzliak225 matches

5.02Cards per match
4.81Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
26.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ivan Kruzliak5.02
Other referees4.17

5.02 cards a match, 0.85 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.17).

Cards come from 162 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SwitzerlandSwitzerland440011:1+1012WWWW
2SloveniaSlovenia42115:3+27WLWD
3ScotlandScotland41123:5-24LWLD
4FYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia40040:10-100LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1SwitzerlandSwitzerland411:112
2SloveniaSlovenia45:37
3ScotlandScotland43:54
4FYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia40:100
PromotionRelegation

About the Switzerland vs Slovenia forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Switzerland and Slovenia in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Switzerland are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 5 points ahead of Slovenia in 2nd. League goal record so far: Switzerland 11-1, Slovenia 5-3. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Switzerland have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Switzerland and Slovenia have met only 2 times recently, averaging 1.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.