Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction
France · Regular Season - 1
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
61%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.66
SignalNEUTRALModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+0.4%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.60
SignalHIGHModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+14.5%
Toulouse Rest
7 days
Lyon Rest
3 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
136%2.40
X31%3.40
233%2.92
Double Chance
1X67%1.41
X264%1.55
Both Teams to Score
Yes61%1.66
No39%2.12
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.28 + 1.56 = 2.84
Over 1.579%1.28
Over 2.555%1.88
Over 3.534%3.18
Under 1.521%3.70
Under 2.545%1.93
Under 3.566%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.6 + 5 = 8.6
Over 8.558%1.47
Over 9.541%1.79
Over 10.527%2.19
Under 8.542%2.50
Under 9.559%1.95
Under 10.573%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.3 = 4.6
Over 3.564%1.39
Over 4.544%1.83
Under 3.536%2.76
Under 4.556%1.86
Match Events
31'N. SchmidtTripping
45'N. NarteyTripping
63'J. Duranville INM. Fofana out
63'R. Himbert INP. Sulc out
68'N. NarteyAssist: P. Sulc
69'M. de Carvalho INC. Tolisso out
69'N. Nartey INT. Morton out
71'J. Vignolo INI. Azizi out
71'I. Diallo INR. Messali out
71'S. Hidalgo INJ. Russell-Rowe out
80'M. Bidstrup INT. Tessmann out
80'Y. Gboho INS. Oppong out
85'M. FofanaAssist: C. Tolisso
86'N. Schmidt INM. Saka out
90+4'T. TessmannHolding
Lineups
ToulouseLyon
4-3-3Coach: Paulo FonsecaAvg ratingAvg rating
16G. Restes
94I. Diallo
3M. McKenzie
C2R. Nicolaisen
12C. Tapé
23C. Cásseres Jr.
31N. Schmidt
7J. Vignolo
8T. Jørgensen
10Y. Gboho
9S. Hidalgo
40R. Descamps
13Z. Athekame
20F. Bacher
C22C. Mata
76M. Ouédraogo
2M. Bidstrup
39M. de Carvalho
99N. Nartey
26K. Boudache
45R. Himbert
24J. DuranvilleToulouse Substitutes
60Mathys Niflore
19David Odogu
5Seny Koumbassa
77Mario Sauer
28Mathis Saka86'for N. Schmidt
22Rafik Messali71'for I. Diallo
11Sion Oppong80'for Y. Gboho
13Jacen Russell Rowe71'for S. Hidalgo
37Ilyas Azizi71'for J. Vignolo
Lyon Substitutes
11Malick Fofana63'for J. Duranville85'
10Pavel Šulc63'for R. Himbert
23Tyler Morton69'for N. Nartey
8Corentin Tolisso69'for M. de Carvalho
1Dominik Greif
3Nicolás Tagliafico
6Tanner Tessmann80'for M. Bidstrup90+4'
7Ernest Nuamah
17Loïs Openda
Match Stats
ToulouseLyon 48%Ball Possession52%
6Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots11
2Shots on Goal3
12Shots off Goal5
12Shots Inside Box7
5Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots3
15Fouls15
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves2
435Total Passes479
371Passes Accurate416
85%Pass Accuracy87%
Team Comparison
ToulouseLyon1757Elo Rating 1824
1.86Attack 1.03
2.00Defense 0.97
39%Hit Rate 36%
10.6Shots per Game 9.2
4.1Shots on Target 4.0
3.7Corners per Game 4.7
2.7Cards per Game 1.0
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Toulouse- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Lyon- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings, all competitions
Toulouse2Wins · 25%Draws225%
Lyon4Wins · 50%
4Wins · 50%2.8Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored6 of 8
75%3+ goals6 of 8
Previous meetings
10/05/2026ToulouseLyon21
05/10/2025LyonToulouse12
18/01/2025LyonToulouse00
29/09/2024ToulouseLyon12
15/03/2024ToulouseLyon23
10/12/2023LyonToulouse30
14/04/2023ToulouseLyon12
07/10/2022LyonToulouse11
Recent Form
Toulouse3W2D5L
15/08/2026Toulouse
Hamburger SV
ToulouseHamburger SV12
L31/07/2026Toulouse
Real Sociedad
ToulouseReal Sociedad21
W25/07/2026Toulouse
Rodez
ToulouseRodez11
D10/05/2026ToulouseLyon
ToulouseLyon21
W03/05/2026
StrasbourgToulouse
StrasbourgToulouse12
W25/04/2026Toulouse
Monaco
ToulouseMonaco22
D21/04/2026
LensToulouse
LensToulouse41
L17/04/2026LensToulouse
LensToulouse32
L12/04/2026Toulouse
Lille
ToulouseLille04
L03/04/2026
Paris Saint GermainToulouse
Paris Saint GermainToulouse31
LLyon5W1D4L
18/08/2026
FenerbahçeLyonLyon
Sparta PrahaSparta PrahaLyon
FenerbahçeLyon11
D11/08/2026LyonSparta Praha30
W04/08/2026Sparta PrahaLyon21
L29/07/2026
Real BetisLyon
Real BetisLyon40
L24/07/2026
VfL WolfsburgLyon
VfL WolfsburgLyon02
W18/07/2026
Slavia PrahaLyon
Slavia PrahaLyon20
L15/07/2026Lyon
Servette FC
LyonServette FC21
W11/07/2026Lyon
FC ST. Gallen
LyonFC ST. Gallen63
W08/07/2026Lyon
Mâcon
LyonMâcon52
W17/05/2026LyonLens
LyonLens04
LReferee Profile
4.24Cards per match
3.96Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
27.5Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.24 cards a match, 0.33 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.91).
Cards come from 131 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | +11 | 20 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | +6 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | +8 | 17 | WLWLW |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:10 | +6 | 17 | WLWLW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20:19 | +1 | 16 | LWLWL |
| 6 | Monaco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12:10 | +2 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 7 |  Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | +1 | 14 | WWLWW |
| 8 | Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16:13 | +3 | 13 | LWWWL |
| 9 |  Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | +5 | 12 | WWWLL |
| 10 |  Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DWWLD |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Strasbourg | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 17:19 | -2 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13:23 | -10 | 10 | LDWLW |
| 14 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:17 | -8 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:16 | -9 | 8 | WDLLL |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 7 | LDLLW |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9:20 | -11 | 2 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 9 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 | Rennes | 9 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Monaco | 9 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 7 | Nice | 9 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 8 | Lens | 9 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 9 | Marseille | 8 | 18:13 | 12 |
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 12 | Strasbourg | 9 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 9 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 14 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 14:12 | 9 |
| 15 | Angers | 9 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 9 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 9:20 | 2 |
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About the Toulouse vs Lyon forecast
The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Toulouse and Lyon in the Ligue 1 table
In the Ligue 1 table, Lyon are 3rd and Toulouse 11th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Toulouse 12-11, Lyon 15-7. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.