Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife Prediction

Vila Nova
4-3
Finished
HT 4-1
Nautico Recife
A. Daronco 21/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.32
SignalGOODModel42%SurpriseMediumGap-1.5%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.67
SignalSOLIDModel34%SurpriseMediumGap+5.0%
Vila Nova Rest
6 days
Nautico Recife Rest
6 days

Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife: result, form and history

Vila Nova beat Nautico Recife 4-3 in the Serie B on 20 Jun 2026. It was in line with recent form: Vila Nova had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Nautico Recife.

Vila Nova have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.2 goals a game. Referee A. Daronco averages 4.49 cards a game, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
47%2.28
X
27%3.08
2
26%3.21
Double Chance
1X
74%1.32
X2
52%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%1.83
No
53%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.36 + 0.88 = 2.24
Over 1.5
69%1.36
Over 2.5
38%2.15
Over 3.5
20%3.77
Under 1.5
31%2.90
Under 2.5
62%1.67
Under 3.5
80%1.23
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.3 = 9.6
Over 8.5
58%1.40
Over 9.5
49%1.69
Over 10.5
38%2.06
Under 8.5
42%2.71
Under 9.5
51%2.04
Under 10.5
62%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.8 + 2.6 = 5.4
Over 3.5
78%-
Over 4.5
63%1.44
Under 3.5
22%-
Under 4.5
37%2.55

Match Events

4'JandersonAssist: Dodo
8'Andre LuisAssist: Ryan
16'Mateus SilvaFoul
18'JandersonAssist: Andre Luis
29'Mateus Silva INMatheus Ribeiro out
29'Leonai Souza INLuiz Claudio out
34'Tiago PagnussatFoul
36'Dodo
42'Ryan
45'Luiz FelipeFoul
46'Reginaldo INArnaldo out
62'Arnaldo INLeo Jance out
65'Vinicius
66'Dodo INDudu out
76'Andre Luis INDellatorre out
76'Ryan INHayner out
78'Victor Andrade INFelipe Cardoso out
85'Janderson INEmerson Urso out
85'Joao Vieira INEnzo Bizzotto out
90+1'Luiz ClaudioAssist: Dodo
90+6'Emerson UrsoFoul

Team Comparison

Vila NovaVila Nova
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
1661Elo Rating 1542
1.53Attack 0.14
1.73Defense 1.06
34%Hit Rate 0%
11.0Shots per Game 14.7
4.2Shots on Target 3.2
4.4Corners per Game 5.1
2.9Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+119 Elo
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Vila NovaVila Nova
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Vila NovaVila Nova3Wins · 60%
Draws00%
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife2Wins · 40%
2.2Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Copa Do Brasil09/03/2023
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
21
Serie B20/08/2022
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
12
Serie B07/05/2022
Vila NovaNautico Recife
20
Serie B11/09/2021
Vila NovaNautico Recife
10
Serie B16/06/2021
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
20

Recent Form

Vila NovaVila Nova
6W2D2L
14/06/2026
CuiabaVila Nova
10
L
09/06/2026
Vila NovaBotafogo SP
10
W
31/05/2026
LondrinaVila Nova
01
W
24/05/2026
America MineiroVila Nova
12
W
17/05/2026
Vila NovaAvai
20
W
09/05/2026
GoiasVila Nova
10
L
05/05/2026
Vila NovaAthletic Club
11
D
26/04/2026
CearaVila Nova
33
D
18/04/2026
Vila NovaOperario-PR
21
W
11/04/2026
Ponte PretaVila Nova
01
W
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
4W2D4L
15/06/2026
NovorizontinoNautico Recife
22
D
10/06/2026
Nautico RecifeFortaleza EC
01
L
31/05/2026
Sport RecifeNautico Recife
20
L
23/05/2026
Nautico RecifeCuiaba
10
W
16/05/2026
Operario-PRNautico Recife
26
W
10/05/2026
Nautico RecifeAmerica Mineiro
40
W
02/05/2026
Botafogo SPNautico Recife
11
D
28/04/2026
Athletic ClubNautico Recife
01
W
18/04/2026
Nautico RecifeSão Bernardo
03
L
12/04/2026
CearaNautico Recife
10
L

Referee Profile

A. Daronco306 matches

4.49Cards per match
4.26Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

A. Daronco4.49
Other referees5.20

4.49 cards a match, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.20).

Cards come from 238 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1JuventudeJuventude361811747:25+2265DWDDW
2NovorizontinoNovorizontino351810762:30+3264WDWWW
3Vila NovaVila Nova36189952:38+1463DLDWD
4CriciumaCriciuma361881038:30+862WLWWL
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC351613643:31+1261DWDWD
6CRBCRB351671253:49+455WLDWL
7Sport RecifeSport Recife361413948:39+955DWLDW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense351412942:33+954LDDLW
9GoiasGoias351571336:40-452WDWWL
10Operario-PROperario-PR351491245:46-151WLLLL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3513101249:39+1049WLDLW
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP361391441:39+248DWWWW
13CuiabaCuiaba3511141032:28+447LLLDW
14Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3612101440:46-646WLDLL
15Athletic ClubAthletic Club3510141140:40044LDDLL
16CearaCeara3511101437:44-743LDLWW
17AvaiAvai361071933:46-1337LLDWW
18LondrinaLondrina35881944:51-732LWDLL
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro35652423:54-3123WWLLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta36362721:78-5715LDDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1JuventudeJuventude3647:2565
2NovorizontinoNovorizontino3562:3064
3Vila NovaVila Nova3652:3863
4CriciumaCriciuma3638:3062
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3543:3161
6CRBCRB3553:4955
7Sport RecifeSport Recife3648:3955
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3542:3354
9GoiasGoias3536:4052
10Operario-PROperario-PR3545:4651
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3549:3949
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3641:3948
13CuiabaCuiaba3532:2847
14Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3640:4646
15Athletic ClubAthletic Club3540:4044
16CearaCeara3537:4443
17AvaiAvai3633:4637
18LondrinaLondrina3544:5132
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3523:5423
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3621:7815
PromotionRelegation

About the Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Vila Nova and Nautico Recife in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Vila Nova are 3rd and Nautico Recife 14th, 17 points apart. League goal record so far: Vila Nova 52-38, Nautico Recife 40-46. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.