Waterford vs Derry City Prediction

Waterford
2-2
Finished
HT 1-1
Derry City
Regional Sports Centre, Waterford 14/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.53
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+5.0%
Waterford Rest
3 days
Derry City Rest
3 days

Waterford vs Derry City: result, form and history

Waterford and Derry City drew 2-2 in the Premier Division on 14 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Derry City have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 4.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.65
X
28%3.50
2
34%2.40
Double Chance
1X
66%1.53
X2
62%1.42
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.57
No
50%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.24 + 0.97 = 2.21
Over 1.5
63%1.20
Over 2.5
39%1.72
Over 3.5
24%2.75
Under 1.5
37%4.00
Under 2.5
61%2.08
Under 3.5
76%1.40
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

9'Adam O'ReillyAssist: James Clarke
11'Adam O'ReillyFoul
45'James ClarkeFoul
45'Evan McLaughlin
51'Michael DuffyAssist: Brandon·Fleming
57'Padraig AmondAssist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto
64'Liam BoyceFoul
64'Evan McLaughlin INSam Glenfield out
64'Noah Mawene INLuke Heeney out
64'C.Noonan INDean Mcmenamy out
73'Sam GlenfieldFoul
73'James Clarke INEllis Chapman out
74'Darragh BurnsFoul
76'Darragh Burns INKévin Santos out
88'Mark Gerard ConnollyDissent
88'Ciaran GroganNot retreating

Lineups

Waterford
4-4-2Coach: G. Coughlan
Derry City
3-4-3Coach: Mark Connolly
Avg rating6.42
Avg rating6.56
S. McMullan6.11S. McMullan
H. Cann5.716H. Cann
J. Mahon6.05J. Mahon
K. Long6.113K. Long
Benny Couto7.93B. Couto
J. Voilås6.520J. Voilås
E. McLaughlin7.18E. McLaughlin
N. Mawene6.37N. Mawene
C. Noonan6.410C. Noonan
T. Lonergan5.818T. Lonergan
P. Amond7.79P. Amond
Tom Norcott6.813T. Norcott
C. Dummigan6.623C. Dummigan
J. Stott5.74J. Stott
Patrick McClean6.93P. McClean
D. Burns6.412D. Burns
N. Twisk6.117N. Twisk
A. O'Reilly7.58A. O'Reilly
B. Fleming6.319B. Fleming
L. Boyce6.527L. Boyce
M. Duffy8.27M. Duffy
J. Clarke6.415J. Clarke

Waterford Substitutes

27D. McMenamy64'for C.Noonan6.2
56A. Brennan
6J. Ashton
32G. Amedu
21Arlo Ricky Hugh Doherty
19S. Glenfield64'for Evan McLaughlin73'5.9
15L. Heeney64'for Noah Mawene6.2
17J. Faria
12B. McKenzie

Derry City Substitutes

22C. Barr
14E. Chapman73'for James Clarke6.0
25Christy Grogan88'
24Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
1B. Maher
21Kévin Santos76'for Darragh Burns6.0
29T. Smith
28J. Olayinka
11G. Whyte

Match Stats

WaterfordDerry City
39%Ball Possession61%
7Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards5
16Total Shots14
6Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box7
4Blocked Shots8
17Fouls12
0Offsides2
0Goalkeeper Saves4
237Total Passes382
129Passes Accurate292
12Free Kicks16

Team Comparison

WaterfordWaterford
Derry CityDerry City
1631Elo Rating 1609
2.53Attack 1.47
1.51Defense 1.90
83%Hit Rate 56%
16.0Shots per Game 16.7
6.1Shots on Target 5.3
4.6Corners per Game 4.6
1.7Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

WaterfordWaterford
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 1.1 in first half)
Derry CityDerry City
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

WaterfordWaterford3Wins · 30%
Draws110%
Derry CityDerry City6Wins · 60%
4.0Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier Division03/07/2026
Derry CityWaterford
24
Premier Division15/05/2026
WaterfordDerry City
22
Premier Division27/02/2026
Derry CityWaterford
42
Premier Division17/10/2025
WaterfordDerry City
12
Premier Division04/07/2025
Derry CityWaterford
72
Premier Division25/04/2025
WaterfordDerry City
21
Premier Division28/02/2025
Derry CityWaterford
12
Premier Division23/08/2024
WaterfordDerry City
01
Premier Division03/06/2024
Derry CityWaterford
30
Premier Division26/04/2024
WaterfordDerry City
02

Recent Form

WaterfordWaterford
6W4D0L
11/09/2026
WaterfordDundalk
11
D
04/09/2026
WaterfordSligo Rovers
30
W
28/08/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Waterford
02
W
21/08/2026
Sligo RoversWaterford
00
D
14/08/2026
WaterfordAthlone Town
21
W
09/08/2026
WaterfordBohemians
31
W
02/08/2026
WaterfordShelbourne
10
W
25/07/2026
Galway UnitedWaterford
00
D
17/07/2026
WaterfordCobh Ramblers
21
W
10/07/2026
WaterfordSt Patrick's Athl.
11
D
Derry CityDerry City
5W2D3L
11/09/2026
ShelbourneDerry City
01
W
06/09/2026
Derry CityDundalk
42
W
30/08/2026
Derry CityShamrock Rovers
33
D
21/08/2026
BohemiansDerry City
53
L
14/08/2026
UCDDerry City
12
W
07/08/2026
Derry CitySligo Rovers
20
W
02/08/2026
St Patrick's Athl.Derry City
11
D
30/07/2026
Derry CityHNK Rijeka
01
L
23/07/2026
HNK RijekaDerry City
10
L
19/07/2026
Derry CityTolka Rovers
30
W

League Table

Premier Division 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers36208859:38+2168LWLWW
2BohemiansBohemians36198963:44+1965WLWLW
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.361791055:31+2460LDLLW
4ShelbourneShelbourne3612131152:50+249LWWWD
5Derry CityDerry City3611151050:47+348DWWLW
6DundalkDundalk3611121355:59-445WLDLL
7WaterfordWaterford3610131354:61-743WWWLL
8Galway UnitedGalway United3610121446:53-742LDLWD
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United3610101644:57-1340WLWLL
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers365102128:66-3825DLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers3659:3868
2BohemiansBohemians3663:4465
3St Patrick's Athl.St Patrick's Athl.3655:3160
4ShelbourneShelbourne3652:5049
5Derry CityDerry City3650:4748
6DundalkDundalk3655:5945
7WaterfordWaterford3654:6143
8Galway UnitedGalway United3646:5342
9Drogheda UnitedDrogheda United3644:5740
10Sligo RoversSligo Rovers3628:6625
Relegation

About the Waterford vs Derry City forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Waterford and Derry City in the Premier Division table

Derry City and Waterford are close in the Premier Division table, 5th and 7th, with 5 points between them. League goal record so far: Waterford 54-61, Derry City 50-47. The full standings are on the Premier Division Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.