Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction
Germany · Regular Season - 4
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.43
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+9.0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rest
7 days
FSV Mainz 05 Rest
7 days
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05: the result in context
FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3 in the Bundesliga on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
131%3.00
X35%3.80
234%2.20
Double Chance
1X66%1.66
X269%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%1.41
No44%2.73
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.36 + 1.31 = 2.67
Over 1.574%1.11
Over 2.557%1.44
Over 3.531%2.18
Under 1.526%5.45
Under 2.543%2.66
Under 3.569%1.72
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.7 = 9.9
Over 8.566%1.46
Over 9.552%1.80
Over 10.538%2.24
Under 8.534%2.50
Under 9.548%1.93
Under 10.562%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.8 = 3.6
Over 3.548%1.91
Over 4.529%2.75
Under 3.552%1.81
Under 4.571%1.43
Match Events
11'Florian NeuhausAssist: Lukas Ullrich
18'Phillip TietzAssist: Sheraldo Becker
19'Lukas UllrichFoul
45+1'Sheraldo BeckerAssist: Anthony Caci
55'Stefan PoschArgument
55'Franck HonoratArgument
55'Penalty confirmedPhilipp Sander
59'Isac LidbergAssist: Lukas Ullrich
62'Florian NeuhausArgument
64'Florian Neuhaus INWael Mohya out
65'Anthony Caci INDanny da Costa out
65'Lee Jae-Sung INEric Martel out
73'Phillipp MweneTime wasting
76'Sheraldo Becker INRansford Konigsdorffer out
76'Franck Honorat INKevin Stöger out
76'Joe Scally INDaiki Hashioka out
78'Eric MartelAssist: Kaishu Sano
84'Ko Itakura INShuto Machino out
84'Hugo Bolin INRobin Hack out
87'Wael MohyaDissent
87'Kevin StögerDissent
89'Danny da Costa
90+1'Nadiem Amiri INLennard Maloney out
90+3'Kacper PotulskiFoul
90+3'Shuto MachinoArgument
90+4'Alexander SchwolowDissent
90+5'Shuto Machino(Penalty)
90+7'Ransford KonigsdorfferNot retreating
Lineups
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Coach: U. FischerAvg ratingAvg rating
1M. Nicolas
6K. Itakura
5J. Leszczyński
4K. Diks
29J. Scally
38H. Bolin
16P. Sander
26L. Ullrich
9F. Honorat
10F. Neuhaus
3I. Lidberg
1A. Schwolow
4S. Posch
3F. Gruber
48K. Potulski
19A. Caci
10N. Amiri
6K. Sano
7L. Jae-Sung
2P. Mwene
9P. Tietz
23S. BeckerBorussia Mönchengladbach Substitutes
2F. Chiarodia
25R. Hack84'for Hugo Bolin
14D. Hashioka76'for Joe Scally
20D. Herold
33D. Batz
18S. Machino84'for Ko Itakura90+3'90+5'
36W. Mohya64'for Florian Neuhaus87'
34M. Nguefack
7K. Stöger76'for Franck Honorat87'
FSV Mainz 05 Substitutes
16S. Bell
21D. da Costa65'for Anthony Caci89'
17B. Hollerbach
40M. Kinzig
11R. Königsdörffer76'for Sheraldo Becker90+7'
15L. Maloney90+1'for Nadiem Amiri
5E. Martel65'for Lee Jae-Sung78'
47R. Nakuzola
20O. Ruoppi
Match Stats
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05 47%Ball Possession53%
6Corner Kicks4
6Yellow Cards5
21Total Shots17
7Shots on Goal8
7Shots off Goal7
15Shots Inside Box15
6Shots Outside Box2
7Blocked Shots2
12Fouls14
0Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves4
425Total Passes482
336Passes Accurate392
11Free Kicks12
Team Comparison
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 051677Elo Rating 1770
1.73Attack 2.16
0.25Defense 0.49
27%Hit Rate 39%
13.7Shots per Game 17.0
4.8Shots on Target 6.5
4.5Corners per Game 3.9
4.0Cards per Game 2.7
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
Borussia Mönchengladbach- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)
FSV Mainz 05- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.9 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Borussia Mönchengladbach1Wins · 10%Draws660%
FSV Mainz 053Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%2.4Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
19/04/2026Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 0511
05/12/2025FSV Mainz 05Borussia Mönchengladbach01
07/03/2025Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 0513
25/10/2024FSV Mainz 05Borussia Mönchengladbach11
02/03/2024FSV Mainz 05Borussia Monchengladbach11
06/10/2023Borussia MonchengladbachFSV Mainz 0522
24/02/2023FSV Mainz 05Borussia Monchengladbach40
04/09/2022Borussia MonchengladbachFSV Mainz 0501
03/04/2022Borussia MonchengladbachFSV Mainz 0511
05/11/2021FSV Mainz 05Borussia Monchengladbach11
Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach7W0D3L
12/09/2026
SC FreiburgBorussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
SV Elversberg
RB LeipzigBorussia Mönchengladbach
SC FreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach50
L05/09/2026Borussia MönchengladbachSV Elversberg34
L29/08/2026RB LeipzigBorussia Mönchengladbach30
L23/08/2026
Schott MainzBorussia Mönchengladbach
Schott MainzBorussia Mönchengladbach05
W15/08/2026Borussia Mönchengladbach
Aston Villa
Borussia MönchengladbachAston Villa21
W12/08/2026
SSVg VelbertBorussia Mönchengladbach
SSVg VelbertBorussia Mönchengladbach08
W01/08/2026
Hansa RostockBorussia Mönchengladbach
Hansa RostockBorussia Mönchengladbach13
W25/07/2026
Rot-Weiß EssenBorussia Mönchengladbach
Rot-Weiß EssenBorussia Mönchengladbach12
W18/07/2026
Wuppertaler SVBorussia Mönchengladbach
Wuppertaler SVBorussia Mönchengladbach06
W20/05/2026
Spelle-VenhausBorussia Mönchengladbach
Spelle-VenhausBorussia Mönchengladbach26
WFSV Mainz 057W2D1L
12/09/2026FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
FSV Mainz 05Eintracht Frankfurt13
L06/09/2026Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 0505
W29/08/2026FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 0700
D23/08/2026
KrieschowFSV Mainz 05
KrieschowFSV Mainz 0509
W15/08/2026FSV Mainz 05
Bournemouth
FSV Mainz 05Bournemouth21
W01/08/2026
UdineseFSV Mainz 05
UdineseFSV Mainz 0533
D31/07/2026FSV Mainz 05
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
FSV Mainz 05Shabab Al Ahli Dubai10
W25/07/2026FSV Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel
FSV Mainz 05Holstein Kiel30
W17/07/2026FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Kaiserslautern
FSV Mainz 051. FC Kaiserslautern41
W11/07/2026
EisbachtalFSV Mainz 05
EisbachtalFSV Mainz 05010
WReferee Profile
3.86Cards per match
3.74Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.86 cards a match, 0.35 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.21).
Cards come from 133 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | LLWDW |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 25:6 | 17 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 12:4 | 17 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 20:11 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 15:14 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 16:13 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 12:15 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 17:13 | 9 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 14:14 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 6:16 | 9 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 10:13 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 4:7 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 6:18 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 11:22 | 3 |
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
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This match
More Bundesliga matches
- 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen 12/09/26
- RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV 13/09/26
- SV Elversberg vs Bayern München 13/09/26
- Bayern München vs Union Berlin 18/09/26
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg 19/09/26
- Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln 19/09/26
- Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg 19/09/26
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund 19/09/26
About the Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 forecast
The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga table
In the Bundesliga table, FSV Mainz 05 are 7th and Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Borussia Mönchengladbach 11-22, FSV Mainz 05 16-13. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.