Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln Prediction

BundesligaGermany Germany · Regular Season - 4
Hamburger SV
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
1. FC Köln
Volksparkstadion, Hamburger·Matthias Jollenbeck 19/09/2026
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
2-1
Finished
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.58
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+11.2%
Hamburger SV Rest
6 days
1. FC Köln Rest
6 days

Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln: result, form and history

Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Köln 2-1 in the Bundesliga on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 5 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%2.63
X
27%3.59
2
36%2.50
Double Chance
1X
64%1.52
X2
63%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%1.50
No
32%2.45
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.63 + 1.5 = 3.13
Over 1.5
83%1.18
Over 2.5
61%1.62
Over 3.5
39%2.46
Under 1.5
17%4.55
Under 2.5
39%2.30
Under 3.5
61%1.48
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.8 = 10.1
Over 8.5
66%1.39
Over 9.5
55%1.75
Over 10.5
48%2.15
Under 8.5
34%2.63
Under 9.5
45%2.03
Under 10.5
52%1.64
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.8 = 3.5
Over 3.5
46%1.50
Over 4.5
27%1.94
Under 3.5
54%2.48
Under 4.5
73%1.80

Match Events

10'Albert GrönbaekFoul
44'Nicolás CapaldoAssist: Albert Grönbaek
45'Terem Moffi INYussuf Poulsen out
49'Yussuf PoulsenAssist: Albert Grönbaek
54'Gideon MensahFoul
64'Gideon Mensah INBorna Sosa out
64'Thijs Dallinga INRagnar Ache out
67'Albert Grönbaek INPatson Daka out
67'Alessio Castro-Montes INÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson out
77'David Moller Wolfe INLouis Pepe Lemke out
77'Zakaria El Ouahdi INBakery Jatta out
77'Ísak Bergmann JóhannessonFoul
81'Tom Krauß INLuca Waldschmidt out
81'Linton Maina INMarius Bülter out
84'Ellyes SkhiriFoul
90'Albert Sambi Lokonga INMartin Adeline out
90'Ragnar AcheAssist: Ellyes Skhiri

Lineups

Hamburger SV
3-4-2-1Coach: M. Polzin
1. FC Köln
4-2-3-1Coach: René Wagner
Avg rating6.79
Avg rating6.56
Daniel Heuer Fernandes6.61D. Heuer Fernandes
N. Capaldo7.224N. Capaldo
J. Torunarigha6.823J. Torunarigha
W. Omari6.717W. Omari
Z. El Ouahdi6.47Z. El Ouahdi
A. Sambi Lokonga6.56A. Sambi Lokonga
N. Remberg6.221N. Remberg
D. Møller Wolfe6.33D. Møller Wolfe
Fábio Vieira7.220F. Vieira
A. Grønbæk8.311A. Grønbæk
T. Moffi6.49T. Moffi
M. Schwäbe7.51M. Schwäbe
A. Castro-Montes6.317A. Castro-Montes
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey6.722J. Simpson-Pusey
L. Lochoshvili6.924L. Lochoshvili
G. Mensah6.614G. Mensah
T. Krauß6.15T. Krauß
E. Skhiri7.46E. Skhiri
L. Maina6.737L. Maina
M. Moore5.847M. Moore
S. El Mala6.510S. El Mala
T. Dallinga6.527T. Dallinga

Hamburger SV Substitutes

37L. Lemke77'for David Moller Wolfe6.6
4B. Nadir
15Y. Poulsen45'for Terem Moffi49'7.4
43S. Nandja
5M. Adeline90'for Albert Sambi Lokonga
27P. Daka67'for Albert Grönbaek6.8
18B. Jatta77'for Zakaria El Ouahdi6.5
19Otto Emerson Stange
12S. Tangvik

1. FC Köln Substitutes

30M. Bülter81'for Linton Maina6.4
2J. Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
3B. Sosa64'for Gideon Mensah6.1
29J. Thielmann
7L. Waldschmidt81'for Tom Krauß6.3
20R. Zieler
9R. Ache64'for Thijs Dallinga90'7.3
8Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson67'for Alessio Castro-Montes77'5.9

Match Stats

Hamburger SV1. FC Köln
45%Ball Possession55%
3Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards3
12Total Shots18
7Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box12
5Shots Outside Box6
1Blocked Shots7
12Fouls14
2Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves5
267Total Passes566
199Passes Accurate498
13Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

Hamburger SVHamburger SV
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
1677Elo Rating 1697
1.24Attack 1.82
1.49Defense 2.36
50%Hit Rate 44%
12.8Shots per Game 14.4
4.1Shots on Target 5.8
3.9Corners per Game 4.5
1.3Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.13 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Hamburger SVHamburger SV
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Hamburger SVHamburger SV2Wins · 40%
Draws240%
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln1Wins · 20%
2.2Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Bundesliga14/03/2026
Hamburger SV1. FC Köln
11
Bundesliga02/11/2025
1. FC KölnHamburger SV
41
2. Bundesliga18/01/2025
Hamburger SV1. FC Köln
10
2. Bundesliga02/08/2024
1. FC KölnHamburger SV
12
DFB Pokal18/01/2022
1. FC KölnHamburger SV
3040

Recent Form

Hamburger SVHamburger SV
3W2D5L
13/09/2026
RB LeipzigHamburger SV
50
L06/09/2026
Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05
05
L29/08/2026
Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
20
L
24/08/2026
VerlHamburger SV
03
W
15/08/2026
ToulouseHamburger SV
12
W
08/08/2026
Hamburger SVLille
22
D
01/08/2026
Hamburger SVEverton
12
L
18/07/2026
Rapid ViennaHamburger SV
32
L
16/05/2026
Bayer LeverkusenHamburger SV
11
D
10/05/2026
Hamburger SVSC Freiburg
32
W
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
4W3D3L
12/09/2026
1. FC KölnWerder Bremen
11
D04/09/2026
VfB Stuttgart1. FC Köln
41
L29/08/2026
1. FC Köln1899 Hoffenheim
32
W
24/08/2026
Würzburger Kickers1. FC Köln
12
W
08/08/2026
1. FC KölnReal Sociedad
21
W
31/07/2026
1. FC KölnHertha BSC
22
D
23/07/2026
Bergisch Gladbach1. FC Köln
08
W
16/05/2026
Bayern München1. FC Köln
51
L
10/05/2026
1. FC Köln1. FC Heidenheim
13
L
02/05/2026
Union Berlin1. FC Köln
22
D

Referee Profile

Matthias Jollenbeck138 matches

4.10Cards per match
3.95Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
23.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Matthias Jollenbeck4.10
Other referees4.24

4.10 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.24).

Cards come from 133 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München853027:8+1918DWWDW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund853014:6+818DWDDW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg851218:10+816WLLWD
4RB LeipzigRB Leipzig850322:11+1115WWLWL
5Werder BremenWerder Bremen843117:14+315WWDDW
6Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen841318:16+213LLWWW
7SV ElversbergSV Elversberg841316:16013WLWLD
8Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt832313:18-511WLWLD
9FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05831417:17010LLWLW
10FC AugsburgFC Augsburg823318:15+39LDLDL
11VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart830514:15-19WLLWL
121899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim830514:16-29LWWLL
131. FC Köln1. FC Köln82339:12-39DDLWL
14SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0782336:9-39DWDLW
15Hamburger SVHamburger SV83057:19-129LLWWW
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin81437:19-127DDDWL
17FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0481344:9-56LDLLD
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach811611:22-114DWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Bayern MünchenBayern München827:818
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund814:618
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg818:1016
4RB LeipzigRB Leipzig822:1115
5Werder BremenWerder Bremen817:1415
6Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen818:1613
7SV ElversbergSV Elversberg816:1613
8Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt813:1811
9FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05817:1710
10FC AugsburgFC Augsburg818:159
11VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart814:159
121899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim814:169
131. FC Köln1. FC Köln89:129
14SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0786:99
15Hamburger SVHamburger SV87:199
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin87:197
17FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0484:96
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach811:224
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About the Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, Hamburger SV (15th) and 1. FC Köln (13th) are level on 9 points. League goal record so far: Hamburger SV 7-19, 1. FC Köln 9-12. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.