VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

MHP Arena, Stuttgart·Tobias Stieler 19/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
61%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+6.4%
VfB Stuttgart Rest
7 days
Borussia Dortmund Rest
7 days

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: the result in context

Borussia Dortmund beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0 in the Bundesliga on 19 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Borussia Dortmund had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 3 for VfB Stuttgart.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.6 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 5. Borussia Dortmund tend to win more corners, 9.5 a game to 7.5 for VfB Stuttgart.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%2.45
X
27%3.88
2
36%2.62
Double Chance
1X
64%1.46
X2
63%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%1.32
No
32%3.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.52 + 1.59 = 3.11
Over 1.5
83%1.09
Over 2.5
63%1.36
Over 3.5
40%1.93
Under 1.5
17%6.40
Under 2.5
37%3.05
Under 3.5
60%1.91
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.5 = 9.7
Over 8.5
61%1.43
Over 9.5
52%1.73
Over 10.5
38%2.17
Under 8.5
39%2.62
Under 9.5
48%2.02
Under 10.5
62%1.63
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.1 = 3.7
Over 3.5
50%1.92
Over 4.5
31%2.98
Under 3.5
50%1.83
Under 4.5
69%1.36

Match Events

13'Ermedin DemirovićDissent
17'Angelo StillerFoul
32'Nico SchlotterbeckFoul
46'Joey VeermanFoul
57'Kouakou Joane GadouFoul
62'Joey Veerman INJobe Bellingham out
62'Ethan Nwaneri INKonstantinos Karetsas out
64'Deniz Undav INDženan Pejčinović out
64'Chris Führich INJamie Leweling out
70'Maximilian BeierAssist: Jobe Bellingham
74'Serhou Guirassy INFábio Silva out
81'Jobe BellinghamFoul
82'Maximilian Beier INMarcel Sabitzer out
82'Julian Ryerson INRamy Bensebaini out
82'Julian RyersonDissent
84'Grischa Prömel INNikolas Nartey out
84'Bilal El Khannouss INLeo Sauer out

Lineups

VfB Stuttgart
3-4-2-1Coach: S. Hoeneb
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1Coach: N. Kovač
Avg rating6.56
Avg rating6.69
F. Bredlow6.51F. Bredlow
Finn Jeltsch6.629F. Jeltsch
J. Chabot7.024J. Chabot
M. Mittelstädt7.87M. Mittelstädt
J. Vagnoman6.14J. Vagnoman
G. Prömel6.421G. Prömel
A. Stiller6.86A. Stiller
C. Führich6.210C. Führich
B. El Khannouss6.611B. El Khannouss
D. Undav6.426D. Undav
E. Demirović6.09E. Demirović
G. Kobel7.61G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou6.622K. Joane Gadou
W. Anton6.73W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck6.24N. Schlotterbeck
J. Ryerson6.326J. Ryerson
J. Veerman7.225J. Veerman
F. Nmecha7.28F. Nmecha
D. Svensson6.124D. Svensson
E. Nwaneri6.418E. Nwaneri
M. Beier7.614M. Beier
S. Guirassy6.39S. Guirassy

VfB Stuttgart Substitutes

28N. Nartey84'for Grischa Prömel6.3
17D. Pejčinović64'for Deniz Undav6.5
44L. Sauer84'for Bilal El Khannouss6.3
2A. Al Dakhil
33M. Funk
3R. Hendriks
47Y. Spalt
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling64'for Chris Führich6.7

Borussia Dortmund Substitutes

17C. Chukwuemeka
40S. Inacio
19K. Karetsas62'for Ethan Nwaneri6.9
33A. Meyer
49L. Reggiani
20M. Sabitzer82'for Maximilian Beier6.4
21Fábio Silva74'for Serhou Guirassy6.5
7J. Bellingham62'for Joey Veerman81'6.6
5R. Bensebaïni82'for Julian Ryerson6.5

Match Stats

VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
56%Ball Possession44%
6Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards5
12Total Shots13
5Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box10
4Shots Outside Box3
1Blocked Shots5
9Fouls14
4Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
547Total Passes432
473Passes Accurate335
14Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
1837Elo Rating 1939
1.55Attack 1.01
1.77Defense 2.32
31%Hit Rate 50%
18.0Shots per Game 16.3
5.9Shots on Target 5.9
7.5Corners per Game 9.5
1.3Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.11 goals
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart5Wins · 50%
Draws220%
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund3Wins · 30%
3.6Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga04/04/2026
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
02
Bundesliga22/11/2025
Borussia DortmundVfB Stuttgart
33
Bundesliga08/02/2025
Borussia DortmundVfB Stuttgart
12
Bundesliga22/09/2024
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
51
Bundesliga06/04/2024
Borussia DortmundVfB Stuttgart
01
DFB Pokal06/12/2023
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
20
Bundesliga11/11/2023
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
21
Bundesliga15/04/2023
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
33
Bundesliga22/10/2022
Borussia DortmundVfB Stuttgart
50
Bundesliga08/04/2022
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
02

Recent Form

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
7W0D3L
12/09/2026
1899 HoffenheimVfB Stuttgart
21
L
09/09/2026
VfB StuttgartViking
31
W
04/09/2026
VfB Stuttgart1. FC Köln
41
W
28/08/2026
Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
51
L
21/08/2026
Hansa RostockVfB Stuttgart
04
W
15/08/2026
FulhamVfB Stuttgart
10
L
08/08/2026
VfB StuttgartEverton
31
W
01/08/2026
VfB StuttgartParis FC
21
W
29/07/2026
Kickers OffenbachVfB Stuttgart
18
W
25/07/2026
HollenbachVfB Stuttgart
05
W
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
7W1D2L
12/09/2026
Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07
30
W
08/09/2026
Borussia DortmundVillarreal
32
W
05/09/2026
1899 HoffenheimBorussia Dortmund
23
W
01/09/2026
HEBCBorussia Dortmund
05
W
29/08/2026
Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
20
W
22/08/2026
Borussia DortmundBayern München
12
L
15/08/2026
Borussia DortmundAS Roma
22
D
09/08/2026
ArsenalBorussia Dortmund
23
W
01/08/2026
FC TokyoBorussia Dortmund
01
W
29/07/2026
Cerezo OsakaBorussia Dortmund
10
L

Referee Profile

Tobias Stieler223 matches

3.89Cards per match
3.73Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tobias Stieler3.85
Other referees4.30

3.85 cards a match, 0.45 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.30).

Cards come from 212 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München752025:6+1917WWDWW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund752012:4+817WDDWW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg741216:9+713LLWDW
4Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen741216:12+413LWWWD
5RB LeipzigRB Leipzig740320:11+912WLWLW
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen733115:14+112WDDWD
7FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05731316:13+310LWLWL
8SV ElversbergSV Elversberg731312:15-310LWLDL
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg723217:13+49DLDLD
101899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim730414:1409WWLLW
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV73046:16-109LWWWL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln72238:11-38DLWLD
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0772236:9-38WDLWL
14Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt722310:17-78LWLDW
15VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart720510:13-36LLWLL
16FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0471334:7-36DLLDW
17Union BerlinUnion Berlin71336:18-126DDWLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach710611:22-113WLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga table

The table shows a wide gap: Borussia Dortmund are 2nd in the Bundesliga, while VfB Stuttgart sit 15th, 11 points behind. League goal record so far: VfB Stuttgart 10-13, Borussia Dortmund 12-4. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

VfB Stuttgart have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.