Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction
Germany · Regular Season - 3
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund 12/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.27
SignalSTRONGModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+3.2%
Value Analysis
61%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 1.5
1.85
SignalSOLIDModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+8.3%
Borussia Dortmund Rest
3 days
SC Paderborn 07 Rest
7 days
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07: the result in context
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Paderborn 07 3-0 in the Bundesliga on 12 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Borussia Dortmund had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for SC Paderborn 07.
Borussia Dortmund tend to win more corners, 9.5 a game to 5.1 for SC Paderborn 07.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
186%1.27
X11%6.50
23%9.81
Double Chance
1X97%1.06
X214%3.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%1.67
No44%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.35 + 0.92 = 3.27
Over 1.583%1.07
Over 2.563%1.33
Over 3.542%1.92
Under 1.517%6.75
Under 2.537%3.10
Under 3.558%1.92
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.5 + 3.5 = 10
Over 8.566%1.45
Over 9.555%1.78
Over 10.540%2.24
Under 8.534%2.53
Under 9.545%1.93
Under 10.560%1.58
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.3 + 2.1 = 3.4
Over 3.544%1.83
Over 4.526%2.69
Under 3.556%1.86
Under 4.574%1.44
Match Events
5'Fábio SilvaAssist: Serhou Guirassy
31'Goal cancelledSerhou Guirassy
39'Laurin UlrichFoul
45+3'Goal cancelledSerhou Guirassy
65'Joey Veerman INFelix Nmecha out
65'Fábio Silva INCarney Chukwuemeka out
65'Ethan Nwaneri INMarcel Sabitzer out
66'Jobe BellinghamFoul
67'Laurin Curda INClemens Lippmann out
67'Stefano Marino INSteffen Tigges out
67'Gabriel Vidović INOliver Batista Meier out
77'Julian Ryerson INMaximilian Beier out
77'Laurin Ulrich INLuka Đurić out
77'Nico Schlotterbeck INRamy Bensebaini out
80'Felix NmechaAssist: Maximilian Beier
82'Mattes Hansen INRayan Philippe out
89'Felix NmechaAssist: Marcel Sabitzer
Lineups
Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07
3-5-2Coach: R. KettemannAvg ratingAvg rating
1G. Kobel
22K. Joane Gadou
3W. Anton
4N. Schlotterbeck
26J. Ryerson
25J. Veerman
7J. Bellingham
24D. Svensson
18E. Nwaneri
21F. Silva
9S. Guirassy
15N. Noll
21J. ter Horst
25T. Scheller
22M. Hansen
17L. Curda
28L. Ulrich
5S. Castañeda
40G. Vidović
23R. Obermair
30S. Marino
18M. PieringerBorussia Dortmund Substitutes
41M. Albert
14M. Beier77'for Julian Ryerson
5R. Bensebaïni77'for Nico Schlotterbeck
17C. Chukwuemeka65'for Fábio Silva
33A. Meyer
8F. Nmecha65'for Joey Veerman80'89'
36Kauã Prates
49L. Reggiani
20M. Sabitzer65'for Ethan Nwaneri
SC Paderborn 07 Substitutes
27S. Tigges67'for Stefano Marino
3Jonah Benedict Sticker
1M. Schubert
9R. Philippe82'for Mattes Hansen
29C. Lippmann67'for Laurin Curda
20F. Götze
7O. Batista Meier67'for Gabriel Vidović
6T. Baack
8L. Đurić77'for Laurin Ulrich
Match Stats
Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07 55%Ball Possession45%
7Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards1
14Total Shots10
8Shots on Goal0
3Shots off Goal8
10Shots Inside Box5
4Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots2
11Fouls7
3Offsides2
0Goalkeeper Saves5
553Total Passes459
464Passes Accurate379
84%Pass Accuracy83%
Team Comparison
Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 071939Elo Rating 1710
1.01Attack 1.22
2.32Defense 1.56
50%Hit Rate 44%
16.3Shots per Game 15.1
5.9Shots on Target 4.5
9.5Corners per Game 5.1
1.2Cards per Game 0.8
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+229 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.28 goals
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Borussia Dortmund- Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
SC Paderborn 07- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
1 previous meeting, all competitions
Borussia Dortmund0Wins · 0%Draws1100%
SC Paderborn 070Wins · 0%
0Wins · 0%4.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1
Previous meetings
02/02/2021Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 073222
Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund6W1D3L
08/09/2026Borussia Dortmund
Villarreal
1899 HoffenheimBorussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
Borussia DortmundVillarreal32
W05/09/20261899 HoffenheimBorussia Dortmund23
W01/09/2026
HEBCBorussia Dortmund
29/08/2026HEBCBorussia Dortmund05
WBorussia DortmundHamburger SV20
W22/08/2026Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München
Borussia DortmundBayern München12
L15/08/2026Borussia Dortmund
AS Roma
Borussia DortmundAS Roma22
D09/08/2026
ArsenalBorussia Dortmund
ArsenalBorussia Dortmund23
W01/08/2026
FC TokyoBorussia Dortmund
FC TokyoBorussia Dortmund01
W29/07/2026
Cerezo OsakaBorussia Dortmund
Cerezo OsakaBorussia Dortmund10
L25/07/2026
Fortuna DüsseldorfBorussia Dortmund
Fortuna DüsseldorfBorussia Dortmund21
LSC Paderborn 074W4D2L
05/09/2026SC Paderborn 07
SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07SC Freiburg01
L29/08/2026FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 0700
D23/08/2026
Phönix LübeckSC Paderborn 07
Phönix LübeckSC Paderborn 0724
W08/08/2026
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 0722
D01/08/2026
VfL OsnabrückSC Paderborn 07
VfL OsnabrückSC Paderborn 0702
W25/05/2026SC Paderborn 07
VfL Wolfsburg
SC Paderborn 07VfL Wolfsburg2111
W21/05/2026VfL WolfsburgSC Paderborn 07
VfL WolfsburgSC Paderborn 0700
D17/05/2026
SV Darmstadt 98SC Paderborn 07
SV Darmstadt 98SC Paderborn 0702
W08/05/2026SC Paderborn 07
Karlsruher SC
SC Paderborn 07Karlsruher SC22
D03/05/2026
SV ElversbergSC Paderborn 07
SV ElversbergSC Paderborn 0751
LLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | LLWDW |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 25:6 | 17 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 12:4 | 17 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 20:11 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 15:14 | 12 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 16:13 | 10 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 12:15 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 17:13 | 9 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 14:14 | 9 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 6:16 | 9 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 10:13 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 4:7 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 6:18 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 11:22 | 3 |
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Bundesliga matches
- SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg 05/09/26
- Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 06/09/26
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg 06/09/26
- Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 11/09/26
- 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 12/09/26
- SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach 12/09/26
- FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen 12/09/26
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 12/09/26
About the Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 forecast
The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga table
In the Bundesliga table, Borussia Dortmund are 2nd and SC Paderborn 07 13th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Borussia Dortmund 12-4, SC Paderborn 07 6-9. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 have met only 1 time recently, with 4.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.