Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund·Christian Dingert 09/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.34
SignalHIGHModel69%SurpriseMediumGap+1.6%
Value Analysis
75%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.34
SignalHIGHModel75%SurpriseMediumGap+3.3%
Borussia Dortmund Rest
20 days
Werder Bremen Rest
20 days

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: the result in context

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga on 9 Oct 2026. Borussia Dortmund had gone in with the better form, having won 5 of their previous five against 3 for Werder Bremen.

Borussia Dortmund have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.8 goals a game. Borussia Dortmund tend to win more corners, 9.5 a game to 4.7 for Werder Bremen.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
75%1.34
X
18%5.50
2
7%8.00
Double Chance
1X
92%1.07
X2
25%3.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%1.60
No
41%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.1 + 0.96 = 3.06
Over 1.5
84%1.09
Over 2.5
67%1.36
Over 3.5
46%1.94
Under 1.5
16%6.35
Under 2.5
33%3.00
Under 3.5
54%1.90
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 3.5 = 9.4
Over 8.5
61%1.48
Over 9.5
51%1.89
Over 10.5
35%2.30
Under 8.5
39%2.43
Under 9.5
49%1.93
Under 10.5
65%1.54
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 1.9 = 3.5
Over 3.5
46%1.85
Over 4.5
28%2.99
Under 3.5
54%1.83
Under 4.5
72%1.38

Match Events

19'Amos Pieper INOskar Wójcik out
63'Ethan Nwaneri INFábio Silva out
65'Arthur Augusto De Matos Soares INMitchell Weiser out
65'Youri Regeer INDariusz Stalmach out
72'Marcel Sabitzer INKonstantinos Karetsas out
72'Jobe Bellingham INJoey Veerman out
80'Daniel SvenssonAssist: Fábio Silva
81'Iván San José Cantalejo INPaul Erevbenagie out
81'Eren Dinkci INMick Schmetgens out
85'Nico SchlotterbeckAssist: Joey Veerman
88'Ludovit ReisAssist: Oskar Wójcik
90'Dariusz StalmachFoul
90+2'Joey VeermanFoul
90+2'Niclas FüllkrugAssist: Marco Grüll
90+4'Felix NmechaFoul
90+8'Daniel ThiouneDissent

Lineups

Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1Coach: N. Kovač
Werder Bremen
4-2-3-1Coach: D. Thioune
Avg rating6.67
Avg rating6.68
G. Kobel6.21G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou7.022K. Joane Gadou
W. Anton6.83W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck8.24N. Schlotterbeck
M. Sabitzer6.220M. Sabitzer
J. Bellingham6.37J. Bellingham
F. Nmecha6.68F. Nmecha
D. Svensson7.424D. Svensson
E. Nwaneri6.718E. Nwaneri
M. Beier6.614M. Beier
S. Guirassy6.39S. Guirassy
K. Hein7.91K. Hein
Arthur6.213Arthur
A. Pieper6.15A. Pieper
M. Friedl6.632M. Friedl
O. Deman6.32O. Deman
L. Reis7.915L. Reis
Y. Regeer6.144Y. Regeer
E. Dinkçi6.418E. Dinkçi
Chuky San José6.520C. San José
M. Grüll7.217M. Grüll
N. Füllkrug7.810N. Füllkrug

Borussia Dortmund Substitutes

5R. Bensebaïni
40S. Inacio
19K. Karetsas72'for Marcel Sabitzer5.9
41M. Albert
33A. Meyer
36Kauã Prates
49L. Reggiani
21Fábio Silva63'for Ethan Nwaneri6.8
25J. Veerman72'for Jobe Bellingham90+2'6.5

Werder Bremen Substitutes

38P. Erevbenagie81'for Iván San José Cantalejo6.7
26C. Itten
30A. Schlager
33Mick Schmetgens81'for Eren Dinkci6.2
23Dariusz Stalmach65'for Youri Regeer90'6.0
4N. Stark
8M. Weiser65'for Arthur Augusto De Matos Soares6.3
3O. Wójcik19'for Amos Pieper6.9
34K. Soylu

Match Stats

Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
72%Ball Possession28%
9Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
21Total Shots11
10Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal3
11Shots Inside Box6
10Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots4
10Fouls10
1Offsides4
2Goalkeeper Saves8
749Total Passes295
671Passes Accurate216
9Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
1939Elo Rating 1752
1.01Attack 2.29
2.32Defense 1.14
50%Hit Rate 44%
16.3Shots per Game 16.1
5.9Shots on Target 8.0
9.5Corners per Game 4.7
1.2Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+187 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.06 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.5 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund7Wins · 70%
Draws220%
Werder BremenWerder Bremen1Wins · 10%
2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga16/05/2026
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
02
Bundesliga13/01/2026
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
30
Bundesliga25/01/2025
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
22
Bundesliga31/08/2024
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
00
Bundesliga09/03/2024
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
12
Bundesliga20/10/2023
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
10
Bundesliga11/02/2023
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
02
Bundesliga20/08/2022
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
23
Bundesliga18/04/2021
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
41
Bundesliga15/12/2020
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
12

Recent Form

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
8W1D1L
19/09/2026
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
01
W
12/09/2026
Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07
30
W
08/09/2026
Borussia DortmundVillarreal
32
W
05/09/2026
1899 HoffenheimBorussia Dortmund
23
W
01/09/2026
HEBCBorussia Dortmund
05
W
29/08/2026
Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
20
W
22/08/2026
Borussia DortmundBayern München
12
L
15/08/2026
Borussia DortmundAS Roma
22
D
09/08/2026
ArsenalBorussia Dortmund
23
W
01/08/2026
FC TokyoBorussia Dortmund
01
W
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
7W2D1L
19/09/2026
Werder BremenFC Augsburg
32
W
12/09/2026
1. FC KölnWerder Bremen
11
D
05/09/2026
Werder BremenRB Leipzig
31
W
30/08/2026
SC FreiburgWerder Bremen
41
L
22/08/2026
Lüneburger SK HansaWerder Bremen
03
W
08/08/2026
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07
22
D
01/08/2026
Energie CottbusWerder Bremen
24
W
25/07/2026
Werder BremenVfL Bochum
20
W
22/07/2026
Werder BremenFagiano Okayama
20
W
18/07/2026
Verden 04Werder Bremen
26
W

Referee Profile

Christian Dingert141 matches

4.30Cards per match
4.11Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Christian Dingert4.30
Other referees4.22

4.30 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.22).

Cards come from 136 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München752025:6+1917WWDWW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund752012:4+817WDDWW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg741216:9+713LLWDW
4Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen741216:12+413LWWWD
5RB LeipzigRB Leipzig740320:11+912WLWLW
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen733115:14+112WDDWD
7FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05731316:13+310LWLWL
8SV ElversbergSV Elversberg731312:15-310LWLDL
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg723217:13+49DLDLD
101899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim730414:1409WWLLW
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV73046:16-109LWWWL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln72238:11-38DLWLD
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0772236:9-38WDLWL
14Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt722310:17-78LWLDW
15VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart720510:13-36LLWLL
16FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0471334:7-36DLLDW
17Union BerlinUnion Berlin71336:18-126DDWLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach710611:22-113WLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, Borussia Dortmund are 2nd and Werder Bremen 6th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Borussia Dortmund 12-4, Werder Bremen 15-14. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.