Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Prediction

Union Berlin
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
SV Elversberg
An der Alten Försterei, Berlin·Tobias Reichel 10/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
63%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.48
SignalNEUTRALModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-4.7%
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.57
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+4.6%
Union Berlin Rest
21 days
SV Elversberg Rest
19 days

Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: the result in context

Union Berlin beat SV Elversberg 1-0 in the Bundesliga on 10 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: SV Elversberg had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Union Berlin.

Referee Tobias Reichel averages 3.78 cards a game, 0.50 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.38
X
27%3.71
2
35%2.80
Double Chance
1X
65%1.44
X2
62%1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%1.43
No
35%2.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.67 + 1.43 = 3.10
Over 1.5
82%1.13
Over 2.5
63%1.48
Over 3.5
42%2.27
Under 1.5
18%5.25
Under 2.5
37%2.55
Under 3.5
58%1.65
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.6 = 10.1
Over 8.5
62%1.53
Over 9.5
55%1.92
Over 10.5
46%2.48
Under 8.5
38%2.33
Under 9.5
45%1.85
Under 10.5
54%1.48
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 3.8
Over 3.5
53%1.72
Over 4.5
34%2.33
Under 3.5
47%2.11
Under 4.5
66%1.57

Match Events

7'Janik HabererFoul
21'Tim SkarkeFoul
58'Kastriot Imeri INLivan Burcu out
59'Tom Zimmerschied INMaurice Krattenmacher out
70'Noel Futkeu INCole Campbell out
71'Lasse Günther INNicholas Mickelson out
71'Noah Darvich INDavid Mokwa out
77'Michel Aebischer INChristopher Trimmel out
78'Woo-Yeong Jeong INM. Gray out
78'Tim Skarke INOliver Burke out
81'Livan Burcu
86'Luca Sirch INFrederik Schmahl out
90+2'Maurice KrattenmacherFoul
90+2'András Schäfer INAljoscha Kemlein out

Lineups

Union Berlin
4-1-4-1Coach: M. Lustrinelli
SV Elversberg
4-2-3-1Coach: V. Wagner
Avg rating6.90
Avg rating6.67
F. Rønnow7.11F. Rønnow
J. Haberer6.219J. Haberer
Z. Van Den Bosch7.74Z. Van Den Bosch
F. Uduokhai7.52F. Uduokhai
T. Rothe6.815T. Rothe
R. Khedira6.68R. Khedira
A. Schäfer6.813A. Schäfer
Jeong Woo-Yeong7.111J. Woo-Yeong
K. Imeri7.230K. Imeri
M. Aebischer6.720M. Aebischer
T. Skarke6.121T. Skarke
N. Kristof7.820N. Kristof
L. Sirch7.026L. Sirch
L. Pinckert7.219L. Pinckert
M. Rohr7.131M. Rohr
L. Günther6.921L. Günther
F. Keidel6.743F. Keidel
Ł. Poręba6.38Ł. Poręba
L. Petkov6.025L. Petkov
Noah Darvich6.310N. Darvich
T. Zimmerschied6.529T. Zimmerschied
N. Futkeu6.89N. Futkeu

Union Berlin Substitutes

9Livan Burcu58'for Kastriot Imeri81'7.9
7O. Burke78'for Tim Skarke6.6
6A. Kemlein90+2'for András Schäfer
17D. Köhn
27M. Ljubičić
14L. Querfeld
31M. Raab
28C. Trimmel77'for Michel Aebischer7.0
32M. Gray78'replaced by Woo-Yeong Jeong

SV Elversberg Substitutes

6A. Condé
7M. Krattenmacher59'for Tom Zimmerschied90+2'6.6
3F. Le Joncour
2N. Mickelson71'for Lasse Günther6.4
42D. Mokwa71'for Noah Darvich6.3
17F. Schmahl86'for Luca Sirch6.4
24L. Schnellbacher
39William Cole Campbell70'for Noel Futkeu6.6
28T. Boss

Match Stats

Union BerlinSV Elversberg
43%Ball Possession57%
7Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
19Total Shots7
6Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal5
13Shots Inside Box6
6Shots Outside Box1
6Blocked Shots0
14Fouls9
3Offsides7
2Goalkeeper Saves5
326Total Passes452
252Passes Accurate368
9Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

Union BerlinUnion Berlin
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
1702Elo Rating 1725
0.61Attack 1.06
1.15Defense 0.76
19%Hit Rate 23%
11.2Shots per Game 9.6
2.9Shots on Target 2.8
3.7Corners per Game 4.2
3.1Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.1 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Union BerlinUnion Berlin
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

Union BerlinUnion Berlin
2W2D6L
18/09/2026
Bayern MünchenUnion Berlin
70
L
11/09/2026
Union BerlinFC Schalke 04
13
L
05/09/2026
Bayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
40
L
29/08/2026
Union BerlinEintracht Frankfurt
33
D
23/08/2026
Eintracht BraunschweigUnion Berlin
24
W
15/08/2026
Union BerlinIpswich
24
L
09/08/2026
Union BerlinAris
32
W
02/08/2026
Union BerlinCagliari
22
D
01/08/2026
Dynamo DresdenUnion Berlin
21
L
18/07/2026
FC AarauUnion Berlin
21
L
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
6W2D2L
20/09/2026
FC Schalke 04SV Elversberg
00
D
13/09/2026
SV ElversbergBayern München
12
L
05/09/2026
Borussia MönchengladbachSV Elversberg
34
W
29/08/2026
SV ElversbergBayer Leverkusen
32
W
22/08/2026
MSV DuisburgSV Elversberg
13
W
15/08/2026
SV ElversbergLorient
41
W
08/08/2026
MallorcaSV Elversberg
11
D
04/08/2026
StrasbourgSV Elversberg
25
W
25/07/2026
NEC NijmegenSV Elversberg
01
W
17/07/2026
FC Viktoria KölnSV Elversberg
21
L

Referee Profile

Tobias Reichel133 matches

3.78Cards per match
3.67Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
25.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tobias Reichel3.78
Other referees4.28

3.78 cards a match, 0.50 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.28).

Cards come from 130 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München752025:6+1917WWDWW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund752012:4+817WDDWW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg741216:9+713LLWDW
4Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen741216:12+413LWWWD
5RB LeipzigRB Leipzig740320:11+912WLWLW
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen733115:14+112WDDWD
7FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05731316:13+310LWLWL
8SV ElversbergSV Elversberg731312:15-310LWLDL
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg723217:13+49DLDLD
101899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim730414:1409WWLLW
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV73046:16-109LWWWL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln72238:11-38DLWLD
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0772236:9-38WDLWL
14Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt722310:17-78LWLDW
15VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart720510:13-36LLWLL
16FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0471334:7-36DLLDW
17Union BerlinUnion Berlin71336:18-126DDWLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach710611:22-113WLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Union Berlin and SV Elversberg in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, SV Elversberg are 8th and Union Berlin 17th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Union Berlin 6-18, SV Elversberg 12-15. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Union Berlin and SV Elversberg have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.