FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
Germany · Regular Season - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
65%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.43
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-5.3%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.59
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+10.4%
FSV Mainz 05 Rest
7 days
Bayer Leverkusen Rest
20 days
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: result, form and history
Bayer Leverkusen beat FSV Mainz 05 4-3 in the Bundesliga on 10 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Bayer Leverkusen have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.4 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
133%2.94
X26%3.83
241%2.22
Double Chance
1X59%1.67
X267%1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes66%1.39
No34%2.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.39 + 1.61 = 3.00
Over 1.583%1.10
Over 2.565%1.43
Over 3.543%2.12
Under 1.517%5.75
Under 2.535%2.75
Under 3.557%1.75
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.1 + 5.9 = 9.9
Over 8.561%1.37
Over 9.551%1.79
Over 10.541%2.19
Under 8.539%2.63
Under 9.549%2.02
Under 10.559%1.64
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.1 = 3.9
Over 3.555%1.58
Over 4.535%2.15
Under 3.545%2.33
Under 4.565%1.67
Match Events
5'Robert Andrich
9'Patrik SchickAssist: Aleix García
20'Phillip TietzFoul
33'Anthony Caci
35'Sheraldo BeckerFoul
42'Anthony CaciAssist: Nadiem Amiri
55'Jarell Quansah
65'Moussa DiabyAssist: Afonso Moreira
66'Ibrahim Maza INMartin Terrier out
70'Eric Martel INLee Jae-Sung out
70'Anthony Caci INDanny da Costa out
70'Kacper Potulski INRansford Konigsdorffer out
75'Afonso Moreira INNathan Tella out
75'Moussa Diaby INMalik Tillman out
76'Lee Jae-SungFoul
77'Sheraldo Becker INBenedict Hollerbach out
81'Kaishu Sano INLennard Maloney out
83'Patrik Schick INJonas Hofmann out
84'Aleix García INEqui Fernández out
90+2'Benedict Hollerbach
90+3'Jarell QuansahFoul
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen
4-2-3-1Coach: Carles MartínezAvg ratingAvg rating
1A. Schwolow
4S. Posch
3F. Gruber
48K. Potulski
19A. Caci
5E. Martel
6K. Sano
10N. Amiri
2P. Mwene
9P. Tietz
23S. Becker
1M. Flekken
4J. Quansah
12E. Tapsoba
2F. Medina
3M. Gutiérrez
8R. Andrich
24A. García
19M. Diaby
30I. Maza
9A. Moreira
14P. SchickFSV Mainz 05 Substitutes
16S. Bell
21D. da Costa70'for Anthony Caci
17B. Hollerbach77'for Sheraldo Becker90+2'
24S. Kawasaki
40M. Kinzig
11R. Königsdörffer70'for Kacper Potulski
7Lee Jae-Sung70'for Eric Martel76'
15L. Maloney81'for Kaishu Sano
47R. Nakuzola
Bayer Leverkusen Substitutes
10M. Tillman75'for Moussa Diaby
11M. Terrier66'for Ibrahim Maza
23N. Tella75'for Afonso Moreira
17Lucas Vázquez
7J. Hofmann83'for Patrik Schick
6E. Fernández84'for Aleix García
22V. Boniface
28J. Blaswich
5L. Badé
Match Stats
FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen 47%Ball Possession53%
4Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards1
23Total Shots16
5Shots on Goal7
11Shots off Goal6
17Shots Inside Box12
6Shots Outside Box4
7Blocked Shots3
11Fouls10
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
438Total Passes507
364Passes Accurate431
10Free Kicks11
Team Comparison
FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen1717Elo Rating 1908
1.25Attack 2.63
0.32Defense 1.61
17%Hit Rate 77%
13.2Shots per Game 20.3
4.9Shots on Target 8.1
6.2Corners per Game 7.5
2.5Cards per Game 2.3
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
FSV Mainz 05- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Bayer Leverkusen- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
FSV Mainz 052Wins · 20%Draws220%
Bayer Leverkusen6Wins · 60%
6Wins · 60%3.4Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10
Previous meetings
28/02/2026Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 0511
18/10/2025FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen34
17/05/2025FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen22
14/01/2025Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 0510
23/02/2024Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 0521
30/09/2023FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen03
19/02/2023Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 0523
27/08/2022FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen03
18/02/2022FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen32
25/09/2021Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 0510
Recent Form
FSV Mainz 057W2D1L
03/10/2026
Waldhof MannheimFSV Mainz 05
19/09/2026Waldhof MannheimFSV Mainz 0503
W
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 0534
W12/09/2026FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt13
L06/09/2026
Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 0505
W29/08/2026FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 0700
D23/08/2026
KrieschowFSV Mainz 05
KrieschowFSV Mainz 0509
W15/08/2026FSV Mainz 05
Bournemouth
FSV Mainz 05Bournemouth21
W01/08/2026
UdineseFSV Mainz 05
UdineseFSV Mainz 0533
D31/07/2026FSV Mainz 05
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
FSV Mainz 05Shabab Al Ahli Dubai10
W25/07/2026FSV Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel
FSV Mainz 05Holstein Kiel30
WBayer Leverkusen7W1D2L
20/09/2026Bayer Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
FC AugsburgBayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin
SV ElversbergBayer Leverkusen
Bayer LeverkusenRB Leipzig20
W16/09/2026Bayer Leverkusen
Celje
12/09/2026Bayer LeverkusenCelje20
WFC AugsburgBayer Leverkusen22
D05/09/2026Bayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin40
W29/08/2026SV ElversbergBayer Leverkusen32
L22/08/2026
SV WehenBayer Leverkusen
SV WehenBayer Leverkusen04
W15/08/2026
NewcastleBayer Leverkusen
NewcastleBayer Leverkusen12
W12/08/2026
Nottingham ForestBayer Leverkusen
Nottingham ForestBayer Leverkusen21
L08/08/2026Bayer Leverkusen
Sevilla
Bayer LeverkusenSevilla21
W01/08/2026Bayer Leverkusen
Rot-Weiß Essen
Bayer LeverkusenRot-Weiß Essen30
WReferee Profile
4.70Cards per match
4.60Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
23.5Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.70 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.63).
Cards come from 105 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 27:8 | +19 | 18 | DWWDW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14:6 | +8 | 18 | DWDDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:10 | +8 | 16 | WLLWD |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22:11 | +11 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17:14 | +3 | 15 | WWDDW |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18:16 | +2 | 13 | LLWWW |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:16 | 0 | 13 | WLWLD |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:18 | -5 | 11 | WLWLD |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17:17 | 0 | 10 | LLWLW |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18:15 | +3 | 9 | LDLDL |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14:15 | -1 | 9 | WLLWL |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14:16 | -2 | 9 | LWWLL |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 9 | DDLWL |
| 14 | SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 9 | DWDLW |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7:19 | -12 | 9 | LLWWW |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7:19 | -12 | 7 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4:9 | -5 | 6 | LDLLD |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 4 | DWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 8 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 | SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 11:22 | 4 |
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
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This match
More Bundesliga matches
- Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig 20/09/26
- FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg 20/09/26
- SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 20/09/26
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen 09/10/26
- 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV 10/10/26
- FC Augsburg vs Bayern München 10/10/26
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg 10/10/26
- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart 10/10/26
About the FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga table
In the Bundesliga table, Bayer Leverkusen are 6th and FSV Mainz 05 9th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: FSV Mainz 05 17-17, Bayer Leverkusen 18-16. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.