Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction

Burgos
3-1
Finished
HT 1-1
AD Ceuta FC
11/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.52
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+7.7%
Burgos Rest
5 days
AD Ceuta FC Rest
6 days

Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC: the result in context

Burgos beat AD Ceuta FC 3-1 in the Segunda División on 11 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

AD Ceuta FC tend to win more corners, 7.8 a game to 5.1 for Burgos.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.64
X
25%3.73
2
17%5.20
Double Chance
1X
83%1.15
X2
42%2.16
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.88
No
52%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.68 + 0.85 = 2.53
Over 1.5
75%1.29
Over 2.5
53%1.93
Over 3.5
29%3.25
Under 1.5
25%3.40
Under 2.5
47%1.85
Under 3.5
71%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.8 = 9.5
Over 8.5
57%2.03
Over 9.5
45%2.51
Over 10.5
39%3.42
Under 8.5
43%1.69
Under 9.5
55%1.43
Under 10.5
61%1.23
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.4 = 4.2
Over 3.5
61%1.32
Over 4.5
41%1.80
Under 3.5
39%2.96
Under 4.5
59%1.93

Match Events

14'Carlos HernándezAssist: Kuki Zalazar
20'Alberto DadieAssist: Jon Karrikaburu
27'Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroFoul
48'Jon KarrikaburuAssist: David Gonzalez
62'José GrageraFoul
66'Kuki ZalazarFoul
66'Jon Karrikaburu INÁlex Forés out
66'Unai Vencedor INPablo Galdames out
66'Javier Llabrés Exposito INKevin Appin out
71'Edgar Sevikyan INUmaru Konare out
75'José Gragera INOier Luengo Redondo out
81'Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze INJosé Antonio Abad Martínez out
81'José Matos INJoaquín Felipe González Rodríguez out
81'Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro INAlejandro Meléndez out
81'Curro INSantiago Lencina out
81'Carlos Redruello NimoOG
84'Alejandro Camacho Ramírez INJordi Escobar out
86'David GonzalezFoul
90'Alberto DadieFoul

Lineups

Burgos
4-4-2Coach: Sergio Francisco
AD Ceuta FC
4-3-3Coach: José Juan Romero
Avg rating6.60
Avg rating6.22
Ander Cantero6.413A. Cantero
Alberto Dadie6.823A. Dadie
Marcelo Expósito7.05M. Expósito
Grego6.98Grego
Ignasi Vilarrasa6.43I. Vilarrasa
David González6.914D. González
José Gragera6.220J. Gragera
Unai Vencedor6.012U. Vencedor
Javi Llabrés6.119J. Llabrés
Jon Karrikaburu8.17J. Karrikaburu
Curro Sánchez6.716C. Sánchez
Pedro López5.61P. López
Redru5.616Redru
Carlos Hernández7.36C. Hernández
Y. Bodiger6.014Y. Bodiger
José Matos5.43J. Matos
Kuki7.78Kuki
3232C. Gabriel Okoro
Mawuli Mensah6.217M. Mensah
E. Sevikyan6.519E. Sevikyan
O. Sadik6.129O. Sadik
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez6.67A. Camacho Ramírez

Burgos Substitutes

17Mario Cantero
9Álex Forés66'for Jon Karrikaburu6.5
4P. Galdames66'for Unai Vencedor6.5
1Bruno Iribarne
24S. Lencinas81'for Curro6.3
15Oier Luengo75'for José Gragera6.6
22Brais Martínez
36I. Martinez
11Víctor Mollejo
18Saúl del Cerro
10K. Appin66'for Javier Llabrés Exposito6.2

AD Ceuta FC Substitutes

13Guille Vallejo
20Álex Meléndez81'replaced by Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro5.8
34D. Mas
27U. Konare71'for Edgar Sevikyan6.3
15Joaquín81'for José Matos5.9
9Jordi Escobar84'for Alejandro Camacho Ramírez6.3
26Arick Betancourt
2Toni Abad81'for Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze5.9

Match Stats

BurgosAD Ceuta FC
47%Ball Possession53%
1Corner Kicks7
3Yellow Cards2
7Total Shots12
2Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal6
4Shots Inside Box8
3Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots3
21Fouls13
1Offsides4
2Goalkeeper Saves0
457Total Passes461
368Passes Accurate392
12Free Kicks21

Team Comparison

BurgosBurgos
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
1669Elo Rating 1503
0.91Attack 1.33
2.24Defense 1.50
58%Hit Rate 17%
12.6Shots per Game 20.1
4.6Shots on Target 5.3
5.1Corners per Game 7.8
3.0Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+165 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BurgosBurgos
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

BurgosBurgos0Wins · 0%
Draws150%
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1Wins · 50%
1.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
0%3+ goals0 of 2

Previous meetings

Segunda División01/04/2026
BurgosAD Ceuta FC
11
Segunda División29/11/2025
AD Ceuta FCBurgos
10

Recent Form

BurgosBurgos
5W3D2L
06/09/2026
OviedoBurgos
00
D
31/08/2026
BurgosReal Sociedad II
22
D
23/08/2026
Sporting GijonBurgos
10
L
16/08/2026
BurgosCordoba
32
W
08/08/2026
BurgosCultural Leonesa
0000
D
01/08/2026
BurgosAthletic Club
03
L
29/07/2026
Unionistas de SalamancaBurgos
01
W
31/05/2026
BurgosFC Andorra
10
W
24/05/2026
Cultural LeonesaBurgos
02
W
16/05/2026
Granada CFBurgos
01
W
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
4W0D6L
05/09/2026
AD Ceuta FCCelta de Vigo II
02
L
30/08/2026
MallorcaAD Ceuta FC
30
L
22/08/2026
AD Ceuta FCLas Palmas
02
L
15/08/2026
FC AndorraAD Ceuta FC
51
L
07/08/2026
AD Ceuta FCMalaga
21
W
29/07/2026
CadizAD Ceuta FC
13
W
26/07/2026
SevillaAD Ceuta FC
21
L
30/05/2026
AD Ceuta FCAlbacete
10
W
24/05/2026
FC AndorraAD Ceuta FC
02
W
16/05/2026
AD Ceuta FCMalaga
14
L

League Table

Segunda División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CastellónCastellón1182122:4+1826WWLDW
2AlmeriaAlmeria1181222:9+1325DWWWW
3EibarEibar1171320:13+722LDLWW
4GironaGirona1163222:10+1221WWDDW
5Granada CFGranada CF1162318:14+420WWWWL
6BurgosBurgos1162316:12+420WWLLW
7MallorcaMallorca1154213:6+719DDWDL
8Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1161411:13-219LWWWL
9OviedoOviedo1153315:12+318DWWLW
10SabadellSabadell1145211:9+217DLWDD
11CordobaCordoba1150617:20-315WWLWL
12TenerifeTenerife1135313:15-214DDDLD
13EldenseEldense1142513:15-214LWWWL
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1142514:19-514WLLDL
15ValladolidValladolid1133516:16012LLWDW
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1133516:21-512LDWLD
17LeganesLeganes113357:16-912DLLLL
18CadizCadiz1124514:14010WLLWD
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1131715:20-510LLWDW
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1122714:22-88LLLLL
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1112810:25-155LLLDW
22AlbaceteAlbacete111198:22-144WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1CastellónCastellón1122:426
2AlmeriaAlmeria1122:925
3EibarEibar1120:1322
4GironaGirona1122:1021
5Granada CFGranada CF1118:1420
6BurgosBurgos1116:1220
7MallorcaMallorca1113:619
8Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1111:1319
9OviedoOviedo1115:1218
10SabadellSabadell1111:917
11CordobaCordoba1117:2015
12TenerifeTenerife1113:1514
13EldenseEldense1113:1514
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1114:1914
15ValladolidValladolid1116:1612
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1116:2112
17LeganesLeganes117:1612
18CadizCadiz1114:1410
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1115:2010
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1114:228
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1110:255
22AlbaceteAlbacete118:224
PromotionRelegation

About the Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC forecast

The forecasts for this Segunda División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Burgos and AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División table

In the Segunda División table, Burgos are 6th and AD Ceuta FC 21st, 15 points apart. League goal record so far: Burgos 16-12, AD Ceuta FC 10-25. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Burgos and AD Ceuta FC have met only 2 times recently, averaging 1.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.