Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC Prediction

Major League SoccerUSA USA · Regular Season - 18
Charlotte
2-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Atlanta United FC
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte·S. Boiko 23/07/2026
CharlotteCharlotte
2-2
Finished
Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.27
SignalHIGHModel52%SurpriseMediumGap-1.1%
Value Analysis
54%Trust
1X2
Home Win
2.02
SignalNEUTRALModel49%SurpriseMediumGap+7.3%
Charlotte Rest
60 days
Atlanta United FC Rest
5 days

Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC: the result in context

Charlotte and Atlanta United FC drew 2-2 in the Major League Soccer on 23 Jul 2026. Charlotte had gone in with the better form, having won 2 of their previous five against none for Atlanta United FC.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%2.02
X
26%3.56
2
23%3.55
Double Chance
1X
77%1.27
X2
49%1.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.58
No
37%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.72 + 1.13 = 2.85
Over 1.5
84%1.21
Over 2.5
61%1.70
Over 3.5
35%2.70
Under 1.5
16%4.26
Under 2.5
39%2.12
Under 3.5
65%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.1 = 10.1
Over 8.5
61%1.42
Over 9.5
50%1.68
Over 10.5
36%2.08
Under 8.5
39%2.63
Under 9.5
50%2.02
Under 10.5
64%1.65
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.5 = 4.5
Over 3.5
64%1.52
Over 4.5
42%1.91
Under 3.5
36%2.46
Under 4.5
58%1.80

Match Events

16'K. A. Calderon Vargas
22'W. Reilly
45'L. AbadaAssist: P. Biel
48'A. Miranchuk
57'E. BaezAssist: T. Jacob
63'A. Goodwin INI. Toklomati out
63'L. Abada INR. Aloko out
63'L. de la Torre IND. Diani out
64'W. Cleary INN. Byrne out
76'M. Almiron
79'N. Byrne
82'F. Picault INL. Brennan out
85'K. A. Calderon Vargas INT. Smalls out
89'C. Sanchez INI. Suarez out
90+3'J. Alonso INS. Gregersen out
90+10'T. Jacob

Lineups

Charlotte
4-4-2Coach: Dean Smith
Atlanta United FC
4-1-4-1Coach: Gerardo Martino
Avg rating7.08
Avg rating6.89
Kristijan Kahlina7.01K. Kahlina
Will Cleary6.335W. Cleary
Morrison Agyemang6.944M. Agyemang
Tim Ream7.23T. Ream
Harry Toffolo6.315H. Toffolo
Kerwin Calderón Vargas8.518K. Calderón Vargas
Ashley WestwoodC8.78A. Westwood
Luca De La Torre6.517L. De La Torre
Liel Abada7.911L. Abada
Pep Biel8.016P. Biel
Archie Goodwin6.97A. Goodwin
Lucas Hoyos8.91L. Hoyos
Tomás Jacob6.355T. Jacob
Enea Mihaj6.94E. Mihaj
Junior Alonso6.96J. Alonso
Elías Báez7.23E. Báez
William Reilly6.628W. Reilly
Aleksey Miranchuk6.559A. Miranchuk
Cooper Sanchez6.348C. Sanchez
Tristan Muyumba6.98T. Muyumba
Miguel AlmirónC8.210M. Almirón
Fafà Picault6.222F. Picault

Charlotte Substitutes

28Djibril Diani63'for L. de la Torre6.6
9Idan Toklomati63'for A. Goodwin6.3
37Rodolfo Aloko63'for L. Abada6.7
14Nathan Byrne64'for W. Cleary79'6.7
25Tyger Smalls85'for K. A. Calderon Vargas6.7
21Tyler Miller
22Henry Kessler
4Andrew Privett
13Brandt Bronico

Atlanta United FC Substitutes

20Luke Brennan82'for F. Picault6.7
56Ignacio Suarez-Couri89'for C. Sanchez6.3
5Stian Gregersen90+3'for J. Alonso6.6
42Jayden Hibbert
2Ronald Hernández
41Toto Majub
16Adrian Gill
30Cayman Togashi
39Arif Kovac

Match Stats

CharlotteAtlanta United FC
51%Ball Possession49%
6Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards3
23Total Shots12
9Shots on Goal6
10Shots off Goal6
17Shots Inside Box10
6Shots Outside Box2
4Blocked Shots0
3Fouls9
1Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves7
492Total Passes476
443Passes Accurate424
90%Pass Accuracy89%

Team Comparison

CharlotteCharlotte
Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC
1652Elo Rating 1497
2.51Attack 1.56
1.14Defense 0.77
41%Hit Rate 17%
11.4Shots per Game 16.3
4.6Shots on Target 4.7
5.7Corners per Game 4.4
1.0Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+156 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📈BTTS Trend44% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

CharlotteCharlotte
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

CharlotteCharlotte5Wins · 56%
Draws00%
Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC4Wins · 44%
2.9Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
56%3+ goals5 of 9

Previous meetings

US Open Cup29/04/2026
CharlotteAtlanta United FC
02
Major League Soccer20/07/2025
Atlanta United FCCharlotte
23
Major League Soccer01/03/2025
CharlotteAtlanta United FC
20
Major League Soccer01/09/2024
CharlotteAtlanta United FC
01
Major League Soccer02/06/2024
Atlanta United FCCharlotte
23
Major League Soccer14/05/2023
Atlanta United FCCharlotte
13
Major League Soccer11/03/2023
CharlotteAtlanta United FC
03
Major League Soccer10/04/2022
CharlotteAtlanta United FC
10
Major League Soccer13/03/2022
Atlanta United FCCharlotte
21

Recent Form

CharlotteCharlotte
4W1D5L
24/05/2026
CharlotteNew England Revolution
10
W
17/05/2026
CharlotteToronto FC
31
W
14/05/2026
CharlotteNew York City FC
01
L
10/05/2026
CharlotteFC Cincinnati
22
D
03/05/2026
New England RevolutionCharlotte
10
L
29/04/2026
CharlotteAtlanta United FC
02
L
26/04/2026
Nashville SCCharlotte
42
L
23/04/2026
Orlando City SCCharlotte
41
L
19/04/2026
New York City FCCharlotte
12
W
16/04/2026
CharlotteCharlotte Independence
60
W
Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC
3W1D6L
18/07/2026
Nashville SCAtlanta United FC
10
L
24/05/2026
Columbus CrewAtlanta United FC
20
L
20/05/2026
Orlando City SCAtlanta United FC
41
L
17/05/2026
Orlando City SCAtlanta United FC
11
D
10/05/2026
Atlanta United FCLos Angeles Galaxy
12
L
03/05/2026
Atlanta United FCCF Montreal
31
W
29/04/2026
CharlotteAtlanta United FC
02
W
25/04/2026
Toronto FCAtlanta United FC
12
W
23/04/2026
Atlanta United FCNew England Revolution
12
L
19/04/2026
Atlanta United FCNashville SC
02
L

Referee Profile

S. Boiko47 matches analysed

4.39Cards per match
4.10Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
21.0Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 33% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC33228369:25+4474WDWDW
2Inter MiamiInter Miami331611677:56+2159WDLWW
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution331841155:46+958LWWWW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire331671061:50+1155WDWLL
5CharlotteCharlotte331581063:48+1553WWLDL
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union331381262:51+1147LDLDW
7FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3312101167:73-646WDWWL
8Columbus CrewColumbus Crew331351555:49+644WWWWW
9Orlando City SCOrlando City SC331271462:78-1643LDDWD
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls331161645:62-1739LLWLL
11New York City FCNew York City FC339121248:45+339DWDDL
12Toronto FCToronto FC339121251:63-1239LWLWD
13Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC33961843:57-1433WLLLW
14DC UnitedDC United337121439:60-2133LLLLL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal33681937:67-3026DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3369:2574
2Inter MiamiInter Miami3377:5659
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3355:4658
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3361:5055
5CharlotteCharlotte3363:4853
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3362:5147
7FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3367:7346
8Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3355:4944
9Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3362:7843
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3345:6239
11New York City FCNew York City FC3348:4539
12Toronto FCToronto FC3351:6339
13Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3343:5733
14DC UnitedDC United3339:6033
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3337:6726
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About the Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC forecast

The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Charlotte and Atlanta United FC in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, Charlotte are 5th and Atlanta United FC 13th, 20 points apart. League goal record so far: Charlotte 63-48, Atlanta United FC 43-57. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.