Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC Prediction

Columbus Crew
4-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Toronto FC
ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus·Christopher Penso 24/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalHIGHModel56%SurpriseMediumGap-7.5%
Columbus Crew Rest
2 days
Toronto FC Rest
6 days

Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC: the result in context

Columbus Crew beat Toronto FC 4-2 in the Major League Soccer on 24 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Columbus Crew have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game. Referee Christopher Penso averages 4.88 cards a game, 0.54 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
57%1.65
X
23%4.33
2
20%4.50
Double Chance
1X
80%1.18
X2
43%2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.49
No
38%2.48
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.92 + 1.13 = 3.05
Over 1.5
84%1.11
Over 2.5
65%1.42
Over 3.5
44%2.13
Under 1.5
16%5.84
Under 2.5
35%2.72
Under 3.5
56%1.68
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4.5 = 10.8
Over 8.5
72%1.50
Over 9.5
62%1.83
Over 10.5
50%2.31
Under 8.5
28%2.45
Under 9.5
38%1.87
Under 10.5
50%1.54
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.5 = 4.6
Over 3.5
67%1.53
Over 4.5
48%2.05
Under 3.5
33%2.41
Under 4.5
52%1.72

Match Events

16'Gonzalo TapiaAssist: Mohamed Farsi
21'Malte AmundsenAssist: Dylan Chambost
32'Sekou Tidiany BangouraFoul
48'Malte AmundsenAssist: Dylan Chambost
57'Santiago Rodriguez INBrooks Lennon out
57'Steven Moreira INMarcelo Andrés Herrera out
59'Brooks LennonAssist: Dylan Chambost
63'Lewis Morgan INDániel Sallói out
68'Taha Habroune INkevin gbamble out
68'Mohamed Farsi INLautaro Giaccone out
69'Dániel SallóiAssist: Theo Corbeanu
70'Sekou Tidiany Bangoura
78'Benjamin Kuscevic INEmilio Aristizábal out
78'Gonzalo Tapia INTarun Karumanchi out
81'Josh SargentAssist: Emilio Aristizábal

Lineups

Columbus Crew
4-4-2Coach: L. Courtois
Toronto FC
4-3-3Coach: R. Fraser
Avg rating6.88
Avg rating6.57
P. Schulte6.628P. Schulte
S. Moreira6.631S. Moreira
S. Zawadzki6.725S. Zawadzki
M. Amundsen8.418M. Amundsen
A. Zaroury6.121A. Zaroury
M. Farsi7.323M. Farsi
S. Bangoura6.417S. Bangoura
D. Chambost9.37D. Chambost
S. Rodríguez6.58S. Rodríguez
T. Habroune6.316T. Habroune
G. Tapia7.833G. Tapia
L. Gavran5.71L. Gavran
R. Laryea6.122R. Laryea
B. Kuscevic6.313B. Kuscevic
Z. Monlouis5.812Z. Monlouis
Matheus Pereira5.63M. Pereira
N. Dorsch7.26N. Dorsch
J. Osorio6.721J. Osorio
D. Mihailović7.210D. Mihailović
T. Corbeanu7.77T. Corbeanu
J. Sargent7.59J. Sargent
L. Morgan6.390L. Morgan

Columbus Crew Substitutes

77Josef Martínez
11B. Lennon57'for Santiago Rodriguez59'7.2
50T. Karumanchi78'for Gonzalo Tapia5.7
2M. Herrera57'for Steven Moreira6.4
19J. Thiaré
12Cesar Ruvalcaba
1N. Hagen
26L. Giaccone68'for Mohamed Farsi6.1
39K. Gbamble68'for Taha Habroune6.7

Toronto FC Substitutes

17Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga78'for Benjamin Kuscevic6.4
96R. Chukwu
71M. Cimermancic
14Alonso Coello
44R. Edwards
11D. Etienne
23W. Yarbrough
38J. Gilman
20D. Sallói63'for Lewis Morgan69'7.0

Match Stats

Columbus CrewToronto FC
47%Ball Possession53%
4Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
10Total Shots20
6Shots on Goal8
0Shots off Goal9
8Shots Inside Box15
2Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots3
12Fouls7
1Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves3
460Total Passes493
401Passes Accurate438
6Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

Columbus CrewColumbus Crew
Toronto FCToronto FC
1660Elo Rating 1553
2.25Attack 1.91
1.87Defense 0.89
63%Hit Rate 39%
16.3Shots per Game 13.8
8.4Shots on Target 5.4
6.1Corners per Game 4.3
1.7Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+107 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.05 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Columbus CrewColumbus Crew
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Toronto FCToronto FC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Columbus CrewColumbus Crew6Wins · 60%
Draws330%
Toronto FCToronto FC1Wins · 10%
2.6Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer21/03/2026
Toronto FCColumbus Crew
21
Major League Soccer21/09/2025
Columbus CrewToronto FC
11
Major League Soccer17/08/2025
Toronto FCColumbus Crew
11
Major League Soccer19/09/2024
Toronto FCColumbus Crew
02
Major League Soccer07/07/2024
Columbus CrewToronto FC
40
Major League Soccer27/08/2023
Columbus CrewToronto FC
20
Major League Soccer12/03/2023
Toronto FCColumbus Crew
11
Major League Soccer30/06/2022
Toronto FCColumbus Crew
12
Major League Soccer12/03/2022
Columbus CrewToronto FC
21
Major League Soccer29/05/2021
Columbus CrewToronto FC
21

Referee Profile

Christopher Penso114 matches

4.88Cards per match
4.67Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
22.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Christopher Penso4.88
Other referees4.34

4.88 cards a match, 0.54 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.34).

Cards come from 113 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC32218366:23+4371DWDWW
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution321841054:44+1058WWWWL
3Inter MiamiInter Miami321511675:55+2056DLWWW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire321571057:48+952DWLLW
5CharlotteCharlotte321481059:48+1150WLDLW
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union321381162:50+1247DLDWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC321271362:74-1243DDWDW
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3211101166:73-743DWWLL
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew321251552:49+341WWWWL
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls321161543:59-1639LWLLW
11Toronto FCToronto FC329121150:60-1039WLWDW
12New York City FCNew York City FC329111247:44+338WDDLL
13DC UnitedDC United327121339:57-1833LLLLW
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC32861840:56-1630LLLWL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal32671936:66-3025LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3266:2371
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3254:4458
3Inter MiamiInter Miami3275:5556
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3257:4852
5CharlotteCharlotte3259:4850
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3262:5047
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3262:7443
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3266:7343
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3252:4941
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3243:5939
11Toronto FCToronto FC3250:6039
12New York City FCNew York City FC3247:4438
13DC UnitedDC United3239:5733
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3240:5630
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3236:6625
Promotion

About the Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC forecast

The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Columbus Crew and Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer table

Columbus Crew and Toronto FC are close in the Major League Soccer table, 9th and 11th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Columbus Crew 52-49, Toronto FC 50-60. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.