New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Prediction

Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison·Marcos De Oliveira 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap+3.1%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel77%SurpriseMediumGap+9.3%
New York Red Bulls Rest
3 days
Toronto FC Rest
3 days

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: result, form and history

Toronto FC beat New York Red Bulls 2-0 in the Major League Soccer on 18 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: New York Red Bulls had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Toronto FC.

New York Red Bulls have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.7 goals a game. Referee Marcos De Oliveira averages 3.83 cards a game, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
55%1.68
X
22%4.20
2
23%3.90
Double Chance
1X
77%1.22
X2
45%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
72%1.36
No
28%2.88
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.95 + 1.5 = 3.45
Over 1.5
88%1.08
Over 2.5
74%1.33
Over 3.5
51%1.87
Under 1.5
12%7.50
Under 2.5
26%3.25
Under 3.5
49%1.85
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.1 = 10.2
Over 8.5
67%1.31
Over 9.5
55%1.55
Over 10.5
44%1.94
Under 8.5
33%3.06
Under 9.5
45%2.26
Under 10.5
56%1.79
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.3 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%1.95
Over 4.5
50%2.55
Under 3.5
31%1.80
Under 4.5
50%1.51

Match Events

3'Justin CheOG
28'Kobe Franklin INJackson Gilman out
45'Adri Mehmeti INEmil Forsberg out
45'Cade Cowell INEric Maxim Choupo-Moting out
52'Zane MonlouisFoul
60'Cameron Harper INJorge Ruvalcaba out
60'Dylan Nealis INJahkeele Marshall-Rutty out
67'Lewis MorganFoul
68'Theo Corbeanu INDerrick Etienne Jr. out
68'Djordje Mihailovic INDániel Sallói out
71'Justin Che INPedro Castro out
82'Dániel SallóiAssist: Jonathan Osorio
86'Lewis Morgan INAlonso out
86'Josh Sargent INRichard Chukwu out
87'Derrick Etienne Jr.Time wasting

Lineups

New York Red Bulls
4-3-3Coach: Michael Bradley
Toronto FC
4-4-2Coach: R. Fraser
Avg rating6.27
Avg rating6.87
E. Horvath6.834E. Horvath
D. Nealis6.312D. Nealis
J. Che5.62J. Che
J. Bazán6.914J. Bazán
D. Padelford5.959D. Padelford
R. Donkor6.648R. Donkor
A. Mehmeti6.215A. Mehmeti
M. Sofo6.237M. Sofo
C. Harper5.917C. Harper
J. Hall6.416J. Hall
C. Cowell6.57C. Cowell
L. Gavran7.11L. Gavran
K. Franklin7.019K. Franklin
Z. Monlouis6.712Z. Monlouis
N. Gomis7.115N. Gomis
Matheus Pereira7.23M. Pereira
T. Corbeanu6.57T. Corbeanu
J. Osorio7.521J. Osorio
N. Dorsch6.96N. Dorsch
D. Mihailović6.210D. Mihailović
J. Sargent6.49J. Sargent
L. Morgan6.690L. Morgan

New York Red Bulls Substitutes

11J. Ruvalcaba60'for Cameron Harper6.7
13E. Choupo-Moting45'for Cade Cowell6.5
10E. Forsberg45'for Adri Mehmeti6.1
60S. Kone
3J. Marshall-Rutty60'for Dylan Nealis5.8
77J. McCarthy
88Pedro Castro71'replaced by Justin Che
26T. Parker
56M. Dos Santos

Toronto FC Substitutes

23W. Yarbrough
27A. Piedrahita
38J. Gilman28'for Kobe Franklin7.2
11D. Etienne68'for Theo Corbeanu87'6.4
96R. Chukwu86'for Josh Sargent7.0
17Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
20D. Sallói68'for Djordje Mihailovic82'7.3
14Alonso Coello86'for Lewis Morgan6.8
44R. Edwards

Match Stats

New York Red BullsToronto FC
68%Ball Possession32%
7Corner Kicks1
0Yellow Cards3
15Total Shots6
4Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal1
11Shots Inside Box2
4Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots1
14Fouls15
3Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves3
518Total Passes249
448Passes Accurate177
15Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
Toronto FCToronto FC
1501Elo Rating 1553
1.15Attack 1.91
1.31Defense 0.89
34%Hit Rate 39%
18.1Shots per Game 13.8
5.8Shots on Target 5.4
6.8Corners per Game 4.3
1.7Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.45 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
  • No tendency data available
Toronto FCToronto FC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls6Wins · 60%
Draws440%
Toronto FCToronto FC0Wins · 0%
2.7Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer14/03/2026
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
11
Major League Soccer26/06/2025
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
11
Major League Soccer23/03/2025
New York Red BullsToronto FC
21
Major League Soccer03/10/2024
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
14
Major League Soccer23/06/2024
New York Red BullsToronto FC
30
Major League Soccer08/10/2023
New York Red BullsToronto FC
30
Major League Soccer18/05/2023
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
00
Major League Soccer19/06/2022
New York Red BullsToronto FC
20
Major League Soccer05/03/2022
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
14
Major League Soccer22/07/2021
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
11

Referee Profile

Marcos De Oliveira113 matches

3.83Cards per match
3.76Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
25.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marcos De Oliveira3.83
Other referees4.38

3.83 cards a match, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.38).

Cards come from 108 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC32218366:23+4371DWDWW
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution321841054:44+1058WWWWL
3Inter MiamiInter Miami321511675:55+2056DLWWW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire321571057:48+952DWLLW
5CharlotteCharlotte321481059:48+1150WLDLW
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union321381162:50+1247DLDWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC321271362:74-1243DDWDW
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3211101166:73-743DWWLL
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew321251552:49+341WWWWL
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls321161543:59-1639LWLLW
11Toronto FCToronto FC329121150:60-1039WLWDW
12New York City FCNew York City FC329111247:44+338WDDLL
13DC UnitedDC United327121339:57-1833LLLLW
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC32861840:56-1630LLLWL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal32671936:66-3025LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3266:2371
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3254:4458
3Inter MiamiInter Miami3275:5556
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3257:4852
5CharlotteCharlotte3259:4850
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3262:5047
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3262:7443
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3266:7343
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3252:4941
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3243:5939
11Toronto FCToronto FC3250:6039
12New York City FCNew York City FC3247:4438
13DC UnitedDC United3239:5733
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3240:5630
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3236:6625
Promotion

About the New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, New York Red Bulls (10th) and Toronto FC (11th) are level on 39 points. League goal record so far: New York Red Bulls 43-59, Toronto FC 50-60. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.