Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte Prediction

Talen Energy Stadium, Philadelphia·Jon Freemon 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.29
SignalGOODModel70%SurpriseMediumGap-3.4%
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.63
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+8.6%
Philadelphia Union Rest
2 days
Charlotte Rest
2 days

Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte: result, form and history

Philadelphia Union and Charlotte drew 2-2 in the Major League Soccer on 17 Oct 2026. Philadelphia Union had gone in with the better form, having won 5 of their previous five against 2 for Charlotte.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.44
X
21%5.00
2
15%5.50
Double Chance
1X
85%1.13
X2
36%2.55
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%1.41
No
36%2.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.23 + 1.06 = 3.29
Over 1.5
87%1.07
Over 2.5
71%1.29
Over 3.5
50%1.75
Under 1.5
13%7.77
Under 2.5
29%3.39
Under 3.5
50%2.00
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4 = 10.2
Over 8.5
67%1.40
Over 9.5
56%1.65
Over 10.5
44%2.00
Under 8.5
33%2.75
Under 9.5
44%2.10
Under 10.5
56%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.8 = 4.8
Over 3.5
71%1.36
Over 4.5
53%1.78
Under 3.5
29%2.93
Under 4.5
47%1.95

Match Events

19'Allan Saint-MaximinFoul
24'Milan Iloski(Penalty)
44'Morrison AgyemangFoul
45+1'David SchneggFoul
48'Rodolfo AlokoAssist: Idan Toklomati Jorno
55'Indiana Vassilev INQuinn Sullivan out
62'Idan Toklomati JornoAssist: David Schnegg
73'Bruno DamianiAssist: Danley Jean Jacques
82'Bruno Damiani INMalik Jakupovic out
83'Allan Saint-Maximin INLiel Abada out
83'Djibril Diani INLuca De La Torre out
83'David Schnegg INHarry Toffolo out
90+12'Rodolfo Aloko INTyger Smalls out

Lineups

Philadelphia Union
4-4-2Coach: Ryan Richter
Charlotte
4-3-3Coach: D. Smith
Avg rating6.67
Avg rating6.57
A. Blake6.218A. Blake
F. Westfield6.339F. Westfield
Neil Pierre7.344N. Pierre
N. Harriel6.426N. Harriel
K. Wagner6.627K. Wagner
Cavan  Sullivan6.26C. Sullivan
D. Jean-Jacques7.321D. Jean-Jacques
J. Lukić6.54J. Lukić
I. Vassilev5.819I. Vassilev
B. Damiani8.29B. Damiani
M. Iloski6.810M. Iloski
K. Kahlina6.21K. Kahlina
N. Byrne6.314N. Byrne
M. Agyemang5.944M. Agyemang
H. Kessler6.622H. Kessler
D. Schnegg6.723D. Schnegg
D. Diani6.328D. Diani
A. Westwood6.48A. Westwood
Pep Biel6.816P. Biel
R. Aloko7.337R. Aloko
I. Toklomati Giorno8.69I. Toklomati Giorno
A. Saint-Maximin6.410A. Saint-Maximin

Philadelphia Union Substitutes

14J. Rafanello
51M. Jakupovic82'for Bruno Damiani6.5
16B. Bender
11A. Bedoya
5J. Sery Larsen
76A. Rick
33Q. Sullivan55'for Indiana Vassilev6.7
28A. Anello
23E. Alladoh

Charlotte Substitutes

13B. Bronico
35Will Cleary
17L. de la Torre83'for Djibril Diani6.0
21T. Miller
4A. Privett
3T. Ream
25Tyger Smalls90+12'for Rodolfo Aloko
15H. Toffolo83'for David Schnegg6.1
11L. Abada83'for Allan Saint-Maximin6.5

Match Stats

Philadelphia UnionCharlotte
40%Ball Possession60%
7Corner Kicks1
0Yellow Cards3
21Total Shots13
5Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal6
12Shots Inside Box10
9Shots Outside Box3
7Blocked Shots4
18Fouls15
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves3
302Total Passes469
225Passes Accurate380
13Free Kicks18

Team Comparison

Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union
CharlotteCharlotte
1727Elo Rating 1652
1.40Attack 2.51
1.85Defense 1.14
31%Hit Rate 41%
16.6Shots per Game 11.4
5.4Shots on Target 4.6
6.2Corners per Game 5.7
1.9Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.29 goals
📈BTTS Trend33% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CharlotteCharlotte
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 0.7 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3Wins · 33%
Draws222%
CharlotteCharlotte4Wins · 45%
2.3Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored3 of 9
44%3+ goals4 of 9

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer05/04/2026
CharlottePhiladelphia Union
21
Major League Soccer19/10/2025
CharlottePhiladelphia Union
20
Major League Soccer15/06/2025
Philadelphia UnionCharlotte
21
Major League Soccer23/06/2024
Philadelphia UnionCharlotte
02
Major League Soccer26/05/2024
CharlottePhiladelphia Union
00
Major League Soccer21/09/2023
CharlottePhiladelphia Union
22
Major League Soccer01/06/2023
Philadelphia UnionCharlotte
10
Major League Soccer01/10/2022
CharlottePhiladelphia Union
40
Major League Soccer04/04/2022
Philadelphia UnionCharlotte
20

Referee Profile

Jon Freemon127 matches

4.66Cards per match
4.47Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
25.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jon Freemon4.66
Other referees4.34

4.66 cards a match, 0.32 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.34).

Cards come from 116 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC33228369:25+4474WDWDW
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution321841054:44+1058WWWWL
3Inter MiamiInter Miami321511675:55+2056DLWWW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire331671061:50+1155WDWLL
5CharlotteCharlotte331581063:48+1553WWLDL
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union331381262:51+1147LDLDW
7FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3312101167:73-646WDWWL
8Columbus CrewColumbus Crew331351555:49+644WWWWW
9Orlando City SCOrlando City SC331271462:78-1643LDDWD
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls331161645:62-1739LLWLL
11New York City FCNew York City FC339121248:45+339DWDDL
12Toronto FCToronto FC339121251:63-1239LWLWD
13Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC33961843:57-1433WLLLW
14DC UnitedDC United337121439:60-2133LLLLL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal33681937:67-3026DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3369:2574
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3254:4458
3Inter MiamiInter Miami3275:5556
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3361:5055
5CharlotteCharlotte3363:4853
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3362:5147
7FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3367:7346
8Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3355:4944
9Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3362:7843
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3345:6239
11New York City FCNew York City FC3348:4539
12Toronto FCToronto FC3351:6339
13Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3343:5733
14DC UnitedDC United3339:6033
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3337:6726
Promotion

About the Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Philadelphia Union and Charlotte in the Major League Soccer table

Charlotte and Philadelphia Union are close in the Major League Soccer table, 5th and 6th, with 6 points between them. League goal record so far: Philadelphia Union 62-51, Charlotte 63-48. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.