San Diego vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
USA · Regular Season - 25
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.44
SignalGOODModel41%SurpriseMediumGap+1.2%
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.44
SignalHIGHModel74%SurpriseMediumGap+8.6%
San Diego Rest
3 days
Philadelphia Union Rest
4 days
San Diego vs Philadelphia Union: the result in context
Philadelphia Union beat San Diego 5-0 in the Major League Soccer on 14 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Referee I. Elfath averages 4.58 cards a game, 0.52 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
142%2.63
X24%3.80
234%2.36
Double Chance
1X66%1.54
X258%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes69%1.40
No31%2.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.75 + 1.26 = 3.01
Over 1.586%1.13
Over 2.571%1.44
Over 3.547%2.15
Under 1.514%5.75
Under 2.529%2.63
Under 3.553%1.67
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.4 = 9.6
Over 8.559%1.46
Over 9.546%1.82
Over 10.536%2.20
Under 8.541%2.49
Under 9.554%1.87
Under 10.564%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.6 = 4.6
Over 3.568%1.42
Over 4.549%1.89
Under 3.532%2.65
Under 4.551%1.82
Match Events
27'Bruno DamianiFoul
45'Red card cancelledAlejandro Alvarado Jr
45+2'Alejandro Alvarado JrArgument
45+5'Cavan SullivanAssist: Indiana Vassilev
45+7'Neil PierreFoul
60'Onni Valakari INDavid Vazquez out
60'Alejandro Alvarado Jr INAníbal Godoy out
60'Amahl Pellegrino INCédric Bakambu out
61'Cavan SullivanAssist: Indiana Vassilev
67'Bruno DamianiAssist: Francis Westfield
70'Indiana Vassilev INQuinn Sullivan out
73'Elias Achouri INBryan Zamblé out
77'Cavan Sullivan INJesus Bueno out
77'Bruno Damiani INEzekiel Kwame Alladoh out
81'Ian Murphy INDagur Dan Þórhallsson out
86'Neil Pierre INJaphet Sery Larsen out
86'Milan Iloski INMalik Jakupovic out
87'Aníbal GodoyOG
90+1'Oscar VerhoevenFoul
90+4'Malik Jakupovic
Lineups
San DiegoPhiladelphia Union
4-4-2Coach: Ryan RichterAvg ratingAvg rating
18D. Ferree
33O. Verhoeven
26M. Duah
32I. Murphy
5K. Sargeant
70A. Alvarado
6J. Tverskov
8O. Valakari
10A. Dreyer
90A. Pellegrino
99E. Achouri
18A. Blake
39F. Westfield
44N. Pierre
26N. Harriel
27K. Wagner
6C. Sullivan
21D. Jean-Jacques
4J. Lukić
19I. Vassilev
9B. Damiani
10M. IloskiSan Diego Substitutes
94C. Bakambu60'for Amahl Pellegrino
20A. Godoy60'for Alejandro Alvarado Jr87'
97C. McVey
13P. Sisniega
15P. Soma
3D. Þórhallsson81'for Ian Murphy
19D. Vazquez60'for Onni Valakari
23S. Vines
14B. B. Zamble73'for Elias Achouri
Philadelphia Union Substitutes
51M. Jakupovic86'for Milan Iloski90+4'
76A. Rick
5J. Sery Larsen86'for Neil Pierre
33Q. Sullivan70'for Indiana Vassilev
16B. Bender
8J. Bueno77'for Cavan Sullivan
11A. Bedoya
28A. Anello
23E. Alladoh77'for Bruno Damiani
Match Stats
San DiegoPhiladelphia Union 59%Ball Possession41%
11Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards2
10Total Shots21
5Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal12
9Shots Inside Box14
1Shots Outside Box7
1Blocked Shots4
13Fouls15
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
553Total Passes398
468Passes Accurate320
85%Pass Accuracy80%
Team Comparison
San DiegoPhiladelphia Union1572Elo Rating 1745
2.20Attack 2.84
0.22Defense 1.28
0%Hit Rate 73%
14.3Shots per Game 17.6
5.5Shots on Target 6.8
4.8Corners per Game 6.0
1.7Cards per Game 2.1
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.01 goals
📈BTTS Trend
Game State Tendencies
San Diego- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Philadelphia Union- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 0.8 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Recent Form
San Diego5W1D4L
10/09/2026San Diego
San Jose Earthquakes
Orlando City SCSan DiegoSan Diego
Los Angeles GalaxySan Diego
Colorado Rapids
Portland TimbersSan Diego
Los Angeles FCSan Diego
Minnesota United FCSan Diego
San DiegoSan Jose Earthquakes23
L06/09/2026Orlando City SCSan Diego10
L30/08/2026San DiegoLos Angeles Galaxy31
W23/08/2026San DiegoColorado Rapids30
W20/08/2026Portland TimbersSan Diego31
L16/08/2026Los Angeles FCSan Diego01
W13/08/2026San Diego
Puebla
San DiegoPuebla32
W10/08/2026San Diego
Club Tijuana
San DiegoClub Tijuana10
W07/08/2026
Club AmericaSan Diego
02/08/2026Club AmericaSan Diego31
LMinnesota United FCSan Diego11
DPhiladelphia Union6W2D2L
10/09/2026Philadelphia Union
FC CincinnatiPhiladelphia Union
CF Montreal
New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union
AustinPhiladelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union
Inter Miami
New York City FCPhiladelphia Union
Cruz AzulPhiladelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionFC Cincinnati50
W06/09/2026Philadelphia UnionCF Montreal20
W30/08/2026New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union13
W23/08/2026AustinPhiladelphia Union11
D20/08/2026Philadelphia UnionInter Miami22
D17/08/2026New York City FCPhiladelphia Union23
W14/08/2026Philadelphia Union
Santos Laguna
Philadelphia UnionSantos Laguna02
L10/08/2026Philadelphia Union
Necaxa
07/08/2026Philadelphia UnionNecaxa31
WCruz AzulPhiladelphia Union10
L02/08/2026Philadelphia UnionAtlanta United FC32
WReferee Profile
4.58Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.58 cards a match, 0.52 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.06).
Cards come from 107 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Western Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 63:32 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 |  FC Dallas | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 58:49 | +9 | 54 | LWDWL |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 58:47 | +11 | 51 | LLLDW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 52:45 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 41:39 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50:35 | +15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 41:39 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 50:49 | +1 | 42 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 42:41 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45:54 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 57:60 | -3 | 40 | WWDLD |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 50:56 | -6 | 38 | WDWDD |
| 13 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 55:58 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 41:59 | -18 | 34 | LWLLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 38:80 | -42 | 22 | LLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 63:32 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 32 | 58:49 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | 58:47 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 52:45 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 41:39 | 48 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 50:35 | 47 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 41:39 | 43 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 32 | 50:49 | 42 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 42:41 | 42 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 45:54 | 41 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 32 | 57:60 | 40 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 32 | 50:56 | 38 |
| 13 | San Diego | 31 | 55:58 | 35 |
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 41:59 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 32 | 38:80 | 22 |
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 66:23 | +43 | 71 | DWDWW |
| 2 |  New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 54:44 | +10 | 58 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 75:55 | +20 | 56 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Chicago Fire | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 57:48 | +9 | 52 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Charlotte | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 59:48 | +11 | 50 | WLDLW |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 62:50 | +12 | 47 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 62:74 | -12 | 43 | DDWDW |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 66:73 | -7 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 9 |  Columbus Crew | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 52:49 | +3 | 41 | WWWWL |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43:59 | -16 | 39 | LWLLW |
| 11 |  Toronto FC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 50:60 | -10 | 39 | WLWDW |
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 47:44 | +3 | 38 | WDDLL |
| 13 |  DC United | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 39:57 | -18 | 33 | LLLLW |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40:56 | -16 | 30 | LLLWL |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 36:66 | -30 | 25 | LLDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | 66:23 | 71 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 32 | 54:44 | 58 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 32 | 75:55 | 56 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 57:48 | 52 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | 59:48 | 50 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 62:50 | 47 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 62:74 | 43 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | 66:73 | 43 |
| 9 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 52:49 | 41 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 43:59 | 39 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 32 | 50:60 | 39 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 47:44 | 38 |
| 13 | DC United | 32 | 39:57 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 40:56 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 32 | 36:66 | 25 |
Promotion
Explore more predictions
This match
More Major League Soccer matches
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders 13/09/26
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo 13/09/26
- Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution 13/09/26
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin 14/09/26
- New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls 19/09/26
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC 20/09/26
- CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew 20/09/26
- New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC 20/09/26
About the San Diego vs Philadelphia Union forecast
The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Major League Soccer
More Major League Soccer fixtures and forecasts are on the Major League Soccer Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
Philadelphia Union have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. San Diego and Philadelphia Union have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.