New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
USA · Regular Season - 22
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Over 4.5
1.75
SignalSOLIDModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+12.0%
New York Red Bulls Rest
7 days
Philadelphia Union Rest
6 days
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union: the result in context
Philadelphia Union beat New York Red Bulls 3-1 in the Major League Soccer on 30 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Philadelphia Union have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
135%2.94
X25%3.88
240%2.15
Double Chance
1X60%1.67
X265%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes63%1.36
No37%2.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.44 + 1.33 = 2.77
Over 1.577%1.11
Over 2.560%1.40
Over 3.536%1.99
Under 1.523%6.50
Under 2.540%2.95
Under 3.564%1.80
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.2 = 10
Over 8.566%1.47
Over 9.553%1.77
Over 10.539%2.26
Under 8.534%2.50
Under 9.547%1.96
Under 10.561%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.2 = 4.2
Over 3.563%1.44
Over 4.536%1.91
Under 3.537%2.67
Under 4.564%1.83
Match Events
20'M. IloskiAssist: I. Vassilev
46'J. Ruvalcaba INE. M. Choupo-Moting out
50'C. SullivanAssist: D. Jean Jacques
64'I. Vassilev INQ. Sullivan out
64'N. PierreAssist: B. Damiani
67'M. Dos Santos INJ. Marshall-Rutty out
67'C. Cowell INC. Harper out
67'E. Forsberg INM. Sofo out
74'E. M. Choupo-MotingAssist: M. Sofo
79'R. Donkor
80'B. Damiani INA. Anello out
80'C. Sullivan INJ. Bueno out
84'D. Jean Jacques INE. Alladoh out
90+1'A. Anello
90+2'F. Westfield
Lineups
New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union
Coach: Ryan RichterNew York Red Bulls Starting XI
34Ethan Horvath
12Dylan Nealis
2Justin Che
14Julián Bazán
56Matthew Dos Santos67'replaced by J. Marshall-Rutty
48Ronald Donkor79'
15Adri Mehmeti
11Jorge Ruvalcaba46'replaced by E. M. Choupo-Moting
10Emil ForsbergC67'replaced by M. Sofo
7Cade Cowell67'replaced by C. Harper
16Julian Hall
Avg rating
Philadelphia Union Starting XI
18Andre BlakeC
39Frankie Westfield90+2'
44Neil Pierre64'
26Nathan Harriel
27Kai Wagner
6Cavan Sullivan50'80'replaced by J. Bueno
21Danley Jean Jacques84'replaced by E. Alladoh
4Jovan Lukić
19Indiana Vassilev64'replaced by Q. Sullivan
10Milan Iloski20'
9Bruno Damiani80'replaced by A. Anello
Avg rating
New York Red Bulls Substitutes
13Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting46'for J. Ruvalcaba74'
3Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty67'for M. Dos Santos
17Cameron Harper67'for C. Cowell
37Mohammed Sofo67'for E. Forsberg
77John McCarthy
5Omar Valencia
26Tim Parker
92Dennis Nelich
91Mijahir Jimenez
Philadelphia Union Substitutes
33Quinn Sullivan64'for I. Vassilev
8Jesus Bueno80'for C. Sullivan
28Agustin Anello80'for B. Damiani90+1'
23Ezekiel Alladoh84'for D. Jean Jacques
76Andrew Rick
2Geiner Martínez
5Japhet Sery Larsen
16Ben Bender
14Jeremy Rafanello
Match Stats
New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union 60%Ball Possession40%
4Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards2
11Total Shots18
4Shots on Goal7
4Shots off Goal5
10Shots Inside Box13
1Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots6
12Fouls13
3Offsides4
1Goalkeeper Saves3
464Total Passes308
385Passes Accurate214
83%Pass Accuracy69%
Team Comparison
New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union1501Elo Rating 1745
1.15Attack 2.84
1.31Defense 1.28
34%Hit Rate 73%
18.1Shots per Game 17.6
5.8Shots on Target 6.8
6.8Corners per Game 6.0
1.7Cards per Game 2.1
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
New York Red Bulls- No tendency data available
Philadelphia Union- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 0.8 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
New York Red Bulls1Wins · 10%Draws220%
Philadelphia Union7Wins · 70%
7Wins · 70%2.4Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
23/07/2026Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls31
17/08/2025New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union10
14/08/2025Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls32
13/07/2025Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls20
01/09/2024New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union02
07/07/2024Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls00
04/09/2023Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls41
07/05/2023New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union01
04/09/2022New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union02
15/05/2022Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls11
Recent Form
New York Red Bulls4W2D4L
23/08/2026New York Red Bulls
Chicago FireNew York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FCNew York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
Orlando City SCNew York Red Bulls
CharlottePhiladelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls
New York Red BullsChicago Fire11
D20/08/2026New York Red BullsNashville SC01
L16/08/2026Atlanta United FCNew York Red Bulls21
L02/08/2026New York Red BullsOrlando City SC32
W26/07/2026New York Red BullsCharlotte02
L23/07/2026Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls31
L24/05/2026
Sporting Kansas CityNew York Red Bulls
Sporting Kansas CityNew York Red Bulls12
W17/05/2026New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
New York Red BullsNew York City FC11
D14/05/2026New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
New York Red BullsColumbus Crew32
W09/05/2026Chicago FireNew York Red Bulls
Chicago FireNew York Red Bulls13
WPhiladelphia Union5W2D3L
23/08/2026
AustinPhiladelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union
Inter MiamiNew York City FCPhiladelphia Union
Cruz AzulPhiladelphia UnionPhiladelphia UnionAtlanta United FCPhiladelphia Union
Seattle SoundersPhiladelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls
AustinPhiladelphia Union11
D20/08/2026Philadelphia UnionInter Miami22
D17/08/2026New York City FCPhiladelphia Union23
W14/08/2026Philadelphia Union
Santos Laguna
Philadelphia UnionSantos Laguna02
L10/08/2026Philadelphia Union
Necaxa
07/08/2026Philadelphia UnionNecaxa31
WCruz AzulPhiladelphia Union10
L02/08/2026Philadelphia UnionAtlanta United FC32
W26/07/2026Philadelphia UnionSeattle Sounders10
W23/07/2026Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls31
W25/05/2026Inter MiamiPhiladelphia Union
Inter MiamiPhiladelphia Union64
LReferee Profile
4.10Cards per match
3.92Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.10 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.19).
Cards come from 136 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 66:23 | +43 | 71 | DWDWW |
| 2 |  New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 54:44 | +10 | 58 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 75:55 | +20 | 56 | DLWWW |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 57:48 | +9 | 52 | DWLLW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 59:48 | +11 | 50 | WLDLW |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 62:50 | +12 | 47 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 62:74 | -12 | 43 | DDWDW |
| 8 |  FC Cincinnati | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 66:73 | -7 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 52:49 | +3 | 41 | WWWWL |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43:59 | -16 | 39 | LWLLW |
| 11 |  Toronto FC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 50:60 | -10 | 39 | WLWDW |
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 47:44 | +3 | 38 | WDDLL |
| 13 |  DC United | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 39:57 | -18 | 33 | LLLLW |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40:56 | -16 | 30 | LLLWL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 36:66 | -30 | 25 | LLDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | 66:23 | 71 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 32 | 54:44 | 58 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 32 | 75:55 | 56 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 57:48 | 52 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | 59:48 | 50 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 62:50 | 47 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 62:74 | 43 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | 66:73 | 43 |
| 9 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 52:49 | 41 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 43:59 | 39 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 32 | 50:60 | 39 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 47:44 | 38 |
| 13 | DC United | 32 | 39:57 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 40:56 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 32 | 36:66 | 25 |
Promotion
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This match
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About the New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union forecast
The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer table
In the Major League Soccer table, Philadelphia Union are 6th and New York Red Bulls 10th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: New York Red Bulls 43-59, Philadelphia Union 62-50. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Philadelphia Union have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.