Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Prediction

Soldier Field, Chicago·Ricardo Fierro 15/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel41%SurpriseMediumGap-2.1%
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Over 3.5
1.48
SignalHIGHModel74%SurpriseMediumGap+8.2%
Chicago Fire Rest
4 days
Philadelphia Union Rest
4 days

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union: result, form and history

Philadelphia Union beat Chicago Fire 3-1 in the Major League Soccer on 15 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Philadelphia Union had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 3 for Chicago Fire.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 3.6 goals, and both sides scored in 6 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.40
X
26%3.95
2
39%2.57
Double Chance
1X
61%1.46
X2
65%1.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%1.36
No
33%2.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.4 + 1.69 = 3.09
Over 1.5
85%1.10
Over 2.5
67%1.40
Over 3.5
46%2.00
Under 1.5
15%6.46
Under 2.5
33%2.88
Under 3.5
54%1.80
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.4 = 9.7
Over 8.5
60%1.52
Over 9.5
48%1.91
Over 10.5
36%2.48
Under 8.5
40%2.33
Under 9.5
52%1.80
Under 10.5
64%1.47
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.7 = 5
Over 3.5
74%1.48
Over 4.5
57%2.07
Under 3.5
26%2.52
Under 4.5
43%1.74

Match Events

34'Mbekezeli MbokaziFoul
41'Jack ElliottFoul
44'Maren Haile-SelassieAssist: Noah Allen
45'Jonathan Bamba INAndreas Hanche-Olsen out
45+1'Jack Elliott
49'Milan IloskiAssist: Bruno Damiani
55'Bruno DamianiAssist: Cavan Sullivan
57'Jesus Bueno INIndiana Vassilev out
67'Bruno DamianiAssist: Jovan Lukic
68'Robert Lewandowski INPhilip Zinckernagel out
68'Johan Arath Gomez INPuso Dithejane out
68'Jonathan Dean INLeonardo Barroso out
72'Anton Saletros INSergio Oregel out
80'Bruno Damiani INEzekiel Kwame Alladoh out
80'Cavan Sullivan INBenjamin Bender out
85'Indiana VassilevFoul
88'Philip ZinckernagelFoul
90+2'Quinn Sullivan INJaphet Sery Larsen out
90+2'Milan Iloski INMalik Jakupovic out
90+3'Neil PierreFoul

Lineups

Chicago Fire
4-4-2Coach: G. Berhalter
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2Coach: Ryan Richter
Avg rating6.03
Avg rating6.82
C. Brady6.01C. Brady
J. Dean5.924J. Dean
J. Elliott4.73J. Elliott
M. Mbokazi5.54M. Mbokazi
N. Allen6.632N. Allen
J. Gómez5.718J. Gómez
A. Salétros5.46A. Salétros
M. Pineda6.022M. Pineda
J. Bamba5.619J. Bamba
R. Lewandowski6.59R. Lewandowski
M. Haile-Selassie7.97M. Haile-Selassie
A. Blake6.618A. Blake
F. Westfield6.439F. Westfield
Neil Pierre6.144N. Pierre
N. Harriel6.826N. Harriel
K. Wagner6.627K. Wagner
Cavan  Sullivan7.26C. Sullivan
J. Bueno6.08J. Bueno
J. Lukić7.34J. Lukić
Q. Sullivan6.333Q. Sullivan
M. Iloski8.210M. Iloski
B. Damiani9.49B. Damiani

Chicago Fire Substitutes

15A. Gutman
25J. Gal
11P. Zinckernagel68'for Robert Lewandowski88'6.4
12P. Dithejane68'for Johan Arath Gomez6.7
44J. Cohen
2Leonardo Barroso68'for Jonathan Dean5.8
21A. Hanche-Olsen45'for Jonathan Bamba5.9
35S. Oregel72'for Anton Saletros5.8
29D. Poręba

Philadelphia Union Substitutes

16B. Bender80'for Cavan Sullivan6.2
11A. Bedoya
23E. Alladoh80'for Bruno Damiani6.4
19I. Vassilev57'for Jesus Bueno85'6.1
51M. Jakupovic90+2'for Milan Iloski
2G. Martínez
14J. Rafanello
76A. Rick
5J. Sery Larsen90+2'for Quinn Sullivan

Match Stats

Chicago FirePhiladelphia Union
49%Ball Possession51%
2Corner Kicks7
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
8Total Shots19
4Shots on Goal8
2Shots off Goal6
5Shots Inside Box13
3Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots5
12Fouls16
3Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves3
405Total Passes411
299Passes Accurate305
14Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

Chicago FireChicago Fire
Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union
1643Elo Rating 1745
1.26Attack 2.84
1.68Defense 1.28
50%Hit Rate 73%
15.9Shots per Game 17.6
5.6Shots on Target 6.8
5.1Corners per Game 6.0
2.4Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.08 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Chicago FireChicago Fire
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Chicago FireChicago Fire2Wins · 20%
Draws330%
Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union5Wins · 50%
3.6Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer21/03/2026
Philadelphia UnionChicago Fire
12
Major League Soccer01/11/2025
Chicago FirePhiladelphia Union
03
Major League Soccer26/10/2025
Philadelphia UnionChicago Fire
4222
Major League Soccer24/08/2025
Philadelphia UnionChicago Fire
40
Major League Soccer26/06/2025
Chicago FirePhiladelphia Union
01
Major League Soccer04/07/2024
Chicago FirePhiladelphia Union
43
Major League Soccer25/02/2024
Philadelphia UnionChicago Fire
22
Major League Soccer16/04/2023
Chicago FirePhiladelphia Union
22
Major League Soccer12/03/2023
Philadelphia UnionChicago Fire
10
Major League Soccer14/08/2022
Philadelphia UnionChicago Fire
41

Referee Profile

Ricardo Fierro118 matches

3.94Cards per match
3.66Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
27.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ricardo Fierro3.94
Other referees4.34

3.94 cards a match, 0.40 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.34).

Cards come from 35 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC32218366:23+4371DWDWW
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution321841054:44+1058WWWWL
3Inter MiamiInter Miami321511675:55+2056DLWWW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire321571057:48+952DWLLW
5CharlotteCharlotte321481059:48+1150WLDLW
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union321381162:50+1247DLDWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC321271362:74-1243DDWDW
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3211101166:73-743DWWLL
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew321251552:49+341WWWWL
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls321161543:59-1639LWLLW
11Toronto FCToronto FC329121150:60-1039WLWDW
12New York City FCNew York City FC329111247:44+338WDDLL
13DC UnitedDC United327121339:57-1833LLLLW
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC32861840:56-1630LLLWL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal32671936:66-3025LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3266:2371
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3254:4458
3Inter MiamiInter Miami3275:5556
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3257:4852
5CharlotteCharlotte3259:4850
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3262:5047
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3262:7443
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3266:7343
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3252:4941
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3243:5939
11Toronto FCToronto FC3250:6039
12New York City FCNew York City FC3247:4438
13DC UnitedDC United3239:5733
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3240:5630
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3236:6625
Promotion

About the Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer table

Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union are close in the Major League Soccer table, 4th and 6th, with 5 points between them. League goal record so far: Chicago Fire 57-48, Philadelphia Union 62-50. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Philadelphia Union have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.