New York Red Bulls vs San Diego Prediction
USA · Regular Season - 28
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseMediumGap-8.7%
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.49
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+2.3%
New York Red Bulls Rest
10 days
San Diego Rest
13 days
New York Red Bulls vs San Diego: the result in context
New York Red Bulls beat San Diego 4-1 in the Major League Soccer on 11 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: New York Red Bulls had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for San Diego.
New York Red Bulls tend to win more corners, 6.8 a game to 4.8 for San Diego.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
137%2.55
X24%3.85
239%2.41
Double Chance
1X61%1.52
X263%1.47
Both Teams to Score
Yes67%1.31
No33%3.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.34 + 1.41 = 2.75
Over 1.585%1.07
Over 2.566%1.33
Over 3.545%1.87
Under 1.515%7.67
Under 2.534%3.23
Under 3.555%1.91
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 5.1 = 10.6
Over 8.566%1.49
Over 9.559%1.89
Over 10.549%2.35
Under 8.534%2.42
Under 9.541%1.85
Under 10.551%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.2 = 4.6
Over 3.567%1.53
Over 4.548%2.00
Under 3.533%2.42
Under 4.552%1.73
Match Events
15'Julian HallAssist: Jorge Ruvalcaba
20'Devin PadelfordAssist: Cade Cowell
27'Jorge RuvalcabaAssist: Ronald Donkor
30'Jeppe TverskovFoul
42'Julian BazanFoul
44'Anders Dreyer(Penalty missed)
45'Jeppe Tverskov INAlejandro Alvarado Jr out
45'Marcus Ingvartsen INCédric Bakambu out
55'Manu DuahDissent
60'Cédric BakambuAssist: Anders Dreyer
61'Gabriel Pirani INDavid Evra Mimbang Nyangono out
61'Ian Murphy INChristopher McVey out
61'Justin Che INTim Parker out
71'Ronald Donkor INSekou Kone out
71'Mohammed Sofo INEmil Forsberg out
71'Cade Cowell INEric Maxim Choupo-Moting out
79'Elias Achouri INAmahl Pellegrino out
81'Jorge Ruvalcaba INJahkeele Marshall-Rutty out
82'Devin PadelfordFoul
85'kieran sargeantFoul
88'Devin Padelford INMatthew Dos Santos out
90+1'Aníbal Godoy INOnni Valakari out
90+3'Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingAssist: Matthew Dos Santos
Lineups
New York Red BullsSan Diego
4-3-3Coach: Mikey VarasAvg ratingAvg rating
34E. Horvath
12D. Nealis
2J. Che
14J. Bazán
59D. Padelford
48R. Donkor
15A. Mehmeti
37M. Sofo
11J. Ruvalcaba
16J. Hall
7C. Cowell
1C. dos Santos
33O. Verhoeven
26M. Duah
32I. Murphy
5K. Sargeant
20A. Godoy
6J. Tverskov
12G. Pirani
10A. Dreyer
7M. Ingvartsen
99E. AchouriNew York Red Bulls Substitutes
8D. Ruíz
88Pedro Castro
13E. Choupo-Moting71'for Cade Cowell90+3'
10E. Forsberg71'for Mohammed Sofo
60S. Kone71'for Ronald Donkor
3J. Marshall-Rutty81'for Jorge Ruvalcaba
77J. McCarthy
26T. Parker61'for Justin Che
56M. Dos Santos88'for Devin Padelford
San Diego Substitutes
90A. Pellegrino79'for Elias Achouri
13P. Sisniega
3D. Þórhallsson
8O. Valakari90+1'for Aníbal Godoy
97C. McVey61'for Ian Murphy
94C. Bakambu45'for Marcus Ingvartsen60'
70A. Alvarado45'for Jeppe Tverskov
36David Evra Mimbang Nyangono61'replaced by Gabriel Pirani
14B. B. Zamble
Match Stats
New York Red BullsSan Diego 36%Ball Possession64%
4Corner Kicks7
2Yellow Cards3
28Total Shots14
12Shots on Goal5
9Shots off Goal8
20Shots Inside Box12
8Shots Outside Box2
7Blocked Shots1
20Fouls14
0Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves8
348Total Passes576
263Passes Accurate461
14Free Kicks18
Team Comparison
New York Red BullsSan Diego1501Elo Rating 1572
1.15Attack 2.20
1.31Defense 0.22
34%Hit Rate 0%
18.1Shots per Game 14.3
5.8Shots on Target 5.5
6.8Corners per Game 4.8
1.7Cards per Game 1.7
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
New York Red Bulls- No tendency data available
San Diego- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Recent Form
New York Red Bulls3W2D5L
01/10/2026New York Red Bulls
St. Louis City
New York City FCNew York Red Bulls
Columbus CrewNew York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FCNew York Red Bulls
Seattle SoundersNew York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls
Chicago FireNew York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FCNew York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
New York Red BullsSt. Louis City03
L19/09/2026New York City FCNew York Red Bulls01
W13/09/2026Columbus CrewNew York Red Bulls01
W10/09/2026Los Angeles FCNew York Red Bulls20
L06/09/2026Seattle SoundersNew York Red Bulls00
D30/08/2026New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union13
L23/08/2026New York Red BullsChicago Fire11
D20/08/2026New York Red BullsNashville SC01
L16/08/2026Atlanta United FCNew York Red Bulls21
L02/08/2026New York Red BullsOrlando City SC32
WSan Diego4W2D4L
27/09/2026
AustinSan Diego
Inter MiamiSan DiegoSan DiegoPhiladelphia UnionSan Diego
San Jose EarthquakesOrlando City SCSan DiegoSan Diego
Los Angeles GalaxySan Diego
Colorado Rapids
Portland TimbersSan DiegoLos Angeles FCSan Diego
AustinSan Diego33
D21/09/2026Inter MiamiSan Diego22
D14/09/2026San DiegoPhiladelphia Union05
L10/09/2026San DiegoSan Jose Earthquakes23
L06/09/2026Orlando City SCSan Diego10
L30/08/2026San DiegoLos Angeles Galaxy31
W23/08/2026San DiegoColorado Rapids30
W20/08/2026Portland TimbersSan Diego31
L16/08/2026Los Angeles FCSan Diego01
W13/08/2026San Diego
Puebla
San DiegoPuebla32
WReferee Profile
4.24Cards per match
4.10Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
23.2Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.24 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.35).
Cards come from 51 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Western Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 63:32 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 |  FC Dallas | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 58:49 | +9 | 54 | LWDWL |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 58:47 | +11 | 51 | LLLDW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 52:45 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 41:39 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50:35 | +15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 41:39 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 50:49 | +1 | 42 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 42:41 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45:54 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 57:60 | -3 | 40 | WWDLD |
| 12 |  Minnesota United FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 50:56 | -6 | 38 | WDWDD |
| 13 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 55:58 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 41:59 | -18 | 34 | LWLLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 38:80 | -42 | 22 | LLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 63:32 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 32 | 58:49 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | 58:47 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 52:45 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 41:39 | 48 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 50:35 | 47 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 41:39 | 43 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 32 | 50:49 | 42 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 42:41 | 42 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 45:54 | 41 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 32 | 57:60 | 40 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 32 | 50:56 | 38 |
| 13 | San Diego | 31 | 55:58 | 35 |
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 41:59 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 32 | 38:80 | 22 |
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 66:23 | +43 | 71 | DWDWW |
| 2 |  New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 54:44 | +10 | 58 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 75:55 | +20 | 56 | DLWWW |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 57:48 | +9 | 52 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Charlotte | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 59:48 | +11 | 50 | WLDLW |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 62:50 | +12 | 47 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 62:74 | -12 | 43 | DDWDW |
| 8 |  FC Cincinnati | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 66:73 | -7 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 52:49 | +3 | 41 | WWWWL |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43:59 | -16 | 39 | LWLLW |
| 11 |  Toronto FC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 50:60 | -10 | 39 | WLWDW |
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 47:44 | +3 | 38 | WDDLL |
| 13 |  DC United | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 39:57 | -18 | 33 | LLLLW |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40:56 | -16 | 30 | LLLWL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 36:66 | -30 | 25 | LLDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 32 | 66:23 | 71 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 32 | 54:44 | 58 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 32 | 75:55 | 56 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 57:48 | 52 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | 59:48 | 50 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 62:50 | 47 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 62:74 | 43 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | 66:73 | 43 |
| 9 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 52:49 | 41 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 32 | 43:59 | 39 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 32 | 50:60 | 39 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 47:44 | 38 |
| 13 | DC United | 32 | 39:57 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 40:56 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 32 | 36:66 | 25 |
Promotion
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This match
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- Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati 11/10/26
- Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew 11/10/26
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About the New York Red Bulls vs San Diego forecast
The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Major League Soccer
More Major League Soccer fixtures and forecasts are on the Major League Soccer Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
New York Red Bulls and San Diego have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.