Austin vs San Diego Prediction

Austin
3-3
Finished
HT 0-0
San Diego
Q2 Stadium, Austin·Jon Freemon 27/09/2026
AustinAustin
3-3
Finished
San DiegoSan Diego

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
58%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.57
SignalNEUTRALModel42%SurpriseMediumGap-5.4%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.59
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+5.9%
Austin Rest
7 days
San Diego Rest
6 days

Austin vs San Diego: the result in context

Austin and San Diego drew 3-3 in the Major League Soccer on 27 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.3 a game across 3 meetings, with both teams scoring in 1.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
36%2.50
X
27%3.69
2
37%2.53
Double Chance
1X
63%1.44
X2
64%1.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.49
No
38%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.46 + 1.36 = 2.82
Over 1.5
80%1.17
Over 2.5
58%1.57
Over 3.5
37%2.44
Under 1.5
20%4.89
Under 2.5
42%2.35
Under 3.5
63%1.53
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.3 = 9.9
Over 8.5
61%1.44
Over 9.5
48%1.74
Over 10.5
36%2.18
Under 8.5
39%2.65
Under 9.5
52%2.00
Under 10.5
64%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.4 = 4.4
Over 3.5
64%1.47
Over 4.5
45%1.97
Under 3.5
36%2.58
Under 4.5
55%1.82

Match Events

36'Žan Kolmanič INOleksandr Svatok out
45'David Vazquez INCédric Bakambu out
50'Aníbal Godoy
57'Mikkel DeslerOG
64'Marcus IngvartsenAssist: Anders Dreyer
65'Oleksandr Svatok INIlie Sánchez out
65'Besard Sabovic INJorge Alastuey out
73'Brandon VazquezAssist: Ervin Torres
82'Christian RamirezAssist: Jon Bell
86'Christian RamirezAssist: Jon Gallagher
87'Christian Ramirez
89'Ian Murphy INAlejandro Alvarado Jr out
89'Oscar Verhoeven INDagur Dan Þórhallsson out
90+5'Aníbal Godoy INBryan Zamblé out

Lineups

Austin
3-4-3Coach: D. Arnaud
San Diego
3-4-3Coach: Mikey Varas
Avg rating6.66
Avg rating6.73
D. Las6.112D. Las
M. Desler5.63M. Desler
B. Hines-Ike6.24B. Hines-Ike
J. Bell6.915J. Bell
J. Gallagher6.717J. Gallagher
Ervin Torres7.738E. Torres
B. Šabović6.514B. Šabović
Ž. Kolmanič5.623Ž. Kolmanič
F. Torres6.411F. Torres
B. Vázquez8.09B. Vázquez
C. Ramirez8.721C. Ramirez
D. Ferree6.118D. Ferree
M. Duah6.526M. Duah
I. Pilcher6.325I. Pilcher
I. Murphy6.332I. Murphy
O. Verhoeven6.233O. Verhoeven
J. Tverskov6.66J. Tverskov
A. Godoy8.220A. Godoy
Kieran Sargeant6.25K. Sargeant
A. Dreyer7.710A. Dreyer
M. Ingvartsen8.27M. Ingvartsen
D. Vazquez6.519D. Vazquez

Austin Substitutes

5O. Svatok36'for Žan Kolmanič65'for Ilie Sánchez6.2
24Jorge Alastuey65'for Besard Sabovic6.4
22Chris Applewhite
32M. Burton
35M. Đorđević
26Patrick Cayelli
40E. Lauta
6Ilie Sánchez65'replaced by Oleksandr Svatok6.4
25Stefan Dobrijevic

San Diego Substitutes

97C. McVey
94C. Bakambu45'for David Vazquez6.6
70A. Alvarado89'for Ian Murphy6.8
3D. Þór­halls­son89'for Oscar Verhoeven6.0
15P. Soma
77A. Mighten
17O. Søe
16M. Alstrup
14B. B. Zamble90+5'for Aníbal Godoy

Match Stats

AustinSan Diego
42%Ball Possession58%
4Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards0
13Total Shots15
6Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal5
11Shots Inside Box12
2Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots5
11Fouls6
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves3
470Total Passes687
409Passes Accurate623
6Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

AustinAustin
San DiegoSan Diego
1542Elo Rating 1572
1.19Attack 2.20
0.50Defense 0.22
0%Hit Rate 0%
11.1Shots per Game 14.3
4.7Shots on Target 5.5
4.5Corners per Game 4.8
0.6Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AustinAustin
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
San DiegoSan Diego
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

AustinAustin1Wins · 33%
Draws00%
San DiegoSan Diego2Wins · 67%
3.3Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer14/05/2026
San DiegoAustin
50
Major League Soccer01/06/2025
San DiegoAustin
20
Major League Soccer23/03/2025
AustinSan Diego
21

Referee Profile

Jon Freemon126 matches

4.67Cards per match
4.48Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jon Freemon4.67
Other referees4.34

4.67 cards a match, 0.33 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.34).

Cards come from 115 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps31167863:32+3155LWDDL
2FC DallasFC Dallas32159858:49+954LWDWL
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City32149958:47+1151LLLDW
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes31139952:45+748LDDDW
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo31139941:39+248DDDDL
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC321211950:35+1547DDWDL
7Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3111101041:39+243DDLWW
8Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake321261450:49+142WWWDL
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids311261342:41+142WDDDL
10Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3210111145:54-941DDWLW
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers321171457:60-340WWDLD
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC329111250:56-638WDWDD
13San DiegoSan Diego318111255:58-335DDDLD
14AustinAustin328101441:59-1834LWLLL
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City32642238:80-4222LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3163:3255
2FC DallasFC Dallas3258:4954
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3258:4751
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3152:4548
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3141:3948
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3250:3547
7Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3141:3943
8Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3250:4942
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids3142:4142
10Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3245:5441
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers3257:6040
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3250:5638
13San DiegoSan Diego3155:5835
14AustinAustin3241:5934
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City3238:8022
Promotion

About the Austin vs San Diego forecast

The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Austin and San Diego in the Major League Soccer table

San Diego and Austin are close in the Major League Soccer table, 13th and 14th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Austin 41-59, San Diego 55-58. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.