CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati Prediction

CF Montreal
3-1
Finished
HT 1-0
FC Cincinnati
Saputo Stadium, Montreal·Ismail Elfath 27/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.46
SignalGOODModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+2.3%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.62
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+6.4%
CF Montreal Rest
7 days
FC Cincinnati Rest
6 days

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati: the result in context

CF Montreal beat FC Cincinnati 3-1 in the Major League Soccer on 27 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 4.1 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 7. Referee Ismail Elfath averages 4.58 cards a game, 0.52 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.71
X
26%3.77
2
39%2.30
Double Chance
1X
61%1.57
X2
65%1.42
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%1.40
No
33%2.78
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.54 + 1.46 = 3.00
Over 1.5
84%1.11
Over 2.5
64%1.46
Over 3.5
43%2.10
Under 1.5
16%6.00
Under 2.5
36%2.69
Under 3.5
57%1.69
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.5 = 9.8
Over 8.5
61%1.34
Over 9.5
50%1.60
Over 10.5
39%2.02
Under 8.5
39%2.95
Under 9.5
50%2.17
Under 10.5
61%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.9 = 3.8
Over 3.5
52%1.58
Over 4.5
33%2.20
Under 3.5
48%2.31
Under 4.5
67%1.62

Match Events

11'Brayan Ceballos INFabian Herbers out
25'Daniel Rios
33'Matthew LongstaffFoul
47'Fabian HerbersFoul
58'Ayoub Jabbari INDavid Douděra out
64'Tom BarlowAssist: Gerardo Valenzuela
71'Roman CelentanoFoul
72'Prince-Osei Owusu(Penalty)
75'Prince-Osei OwusuAssist: Daniel Rios
77'Bryan Ramirez INKristian Fletcher out
77'Obinna Nwobodo INKyle Smith out
86'Teenage HadebeFoul
86'Nick Hagglund INAlvas Powell out
86'Samuel Mawuena Gidi INTah Anunga out
87'Prince-Osei Owusu INFrankie Amaya out

Lineups

CF Montreal
3-4-1-2Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy
FC Cincinnati
3-5-2Coach: Pat Noonan
Avg rating6.84
Avg rating6.40
S. Breza6.91S. Breza
B. Ceballos6.53B. Ceballos
B. Craig6.65B. Craig
J. Neal7.42J. Neal
D. Bugaj6.127D. Bugaj
M. Longstaff6.88M. Longstaff
V. Loturi6.722V. Loturi
L. Petrasso6.513L. Petrasso
A. Sánchez6.310A. Sánchez
D. Ríos8.314D. Ríos
P. Owusu8.29P. Owusu
R. Celentano5.618R. Celentano
S. Gidi5.811S. Gidi
N. Hagglund6.34N. Hagglund
T. Hadebe6.115T. Hadebe
K. Mboma Dem5.717K. Mboma Dem
G. Valenzuela7.722G. Valenzuela
Evander6.710Evander
O. Nwobodo6.45O. Nwobodo
Bryan Josías Ramírez León7.229B. Josías Ramírez León
T. Barlow8.016T. Barlow
A. Jabbari6.599A. Jabbari

CF Montreal Substitutes

25F. Amaya87'for Prince-Osei Owusu6.3
26I. Losenko
21F. Herbers11'for Brayan Ceballos47'6.4
31T. Gillier
33E. Gazdov

FC Cincinnati Substitutes

6J. Malatini
2A. Powell86'for Nick Hagglund6.0
50Felix Samson
24K. Smith77'for Obinna Nwobodo5.9
13E. Louro
14K. Fletcher77'for Bryan Ramirez6.4
23D. Douděra58'for Ayoub Jabbari6.2
27B. Anunga86'for Samuel Mawuena Gidi6.0
19Stefan Chirila

Match Stats

CF MontrealFC Cincinnati
45%Ball Possession55%
4Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal11
9Shots Inside Box11
6Shots Outside Box7
5Blocked Shots3
8Fouls7
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves2
457Total Passes552
384Passes Accurate480
7Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

CF MontrealCF Montreal
FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
1460Elo Rating 1618
0.36Attack 1.67
0.68Defense 1.51
0%Hit Rate 42%
9.6Shots per Game 15.5
2.8Shots on Target 5.3
5.4Corners per Game 4.7
2.2Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CF MontrealCF Montreal
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

CF MontrealCF Montreal3Wins · 30%
Draws220%
FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati5Wins · 50%
4.1Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer22/03/2026
FC CincinnatiCF Montreal
43
Major League Soccer19/10/2025
FC CincinnatiCF Montreal
30
Major League Soccer26/06/2025
CF MontrealFC Cincinnati
13
Major League Soccer01/09/2024
FC CincinnatiCF Montreal
41
Major League Soccer14/04/2024
CF MontrealFC Cincinnati
21
Major League Soccer21/09/2023
CF MontrealFC Cincinnati
11
Major League Soccer18/05/2023
FC CincinnatiCF Montreal
30
Major League Soccer29/05/2022
CF MontrealFC Cincinnati
43
Major League Soccer02/04/2022
FC CincinnatiCF Montreal
34
Major League Soccer19/08/2021
FC CincinnatiCF Montreal
00

Referee Profile

Ismail Elfath115 matches

4.58Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ismail Elfath4.58
Other referees4.06

4.58 cards a match, 0.52 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.06).

Cards come from 107 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC33228369:25+4474WDWDW
2Inter MiamiInter Miami331611677:56+2159WDLWW
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution331841155:46+958LWWWW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire331671061:50+1155WDWLL
5CharlotteCharlotte331581063:48+1553WWLDL
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union331381262:51+1147LDLDW
7FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3312101167:73-646WDWWL
8Columbus CrewColumbus Crew331351555:49+644WWWWW
9Orlando City SCOrlando City SC331271462:78-1643LDDWD
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls331161645:62-1739LLWLL
11New York City FCNew York City FC339121248:45+339DWDDL
12Toronto FCToronto FC339121251:63-1239LWLWD
13Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC33961843:57-1433WLLLW
14DC UnitedDC United337121439:60-2133LLLLL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal33681937:67-3026DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3369:2574
2Inter MiamiInter Miami3377:5659
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3355:4658
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3361:5055
5CharlotteCharlotte3363:4853
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3362:5147
7FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3367:7346
8Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3355:4944
9Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3362:7843
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3345:6239
11New York City FCNew York City FC3348:4539
12Toronto FCToronto FC3351:6339
13Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3343:5733
14DC UnitedDC United3339:6033
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3337:6726
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About the CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati forecast

The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

CF Montreal and FC Cincinnati in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, FC Cincinnati are 7th and CF Montreal 15th, 20 points apart. League goal record so far: CF Montreal 37-67, FC Cincinnati 67-73. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.