FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC Prediction

TQL Stadium, Cincinnati·F. Bazakos 20/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.30
SignalGOODModel52%SurpriseMediumGap-4.4%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.71
SignalSOLIDModel49%SurpriseMediumGap+10.0%
FC Cincinnati Rest
4 days
New York City FC Rest
3 days

FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC: the result in context

FC Cincinnati beat New York City FC 2-1 in the Major League Soccer on 20 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: FC Cincinnati had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for New York City FC.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.93
X
24%3.97
2
23%3.35
Double Chance
1X
77%1.30
X2
47%1.83
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%1.40
No
36%2.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.69 + 1.14 = 2.83
Over 1.5
83%1.13
Over 2.5
62%1.44
Over 3.5
36%2.10
Under 1.5
17%5.85
Under 2.5
38%2.70
Under 3.5
64%1.71
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.1 = 9.8
Over 8.5
65%1.49
Over 9.5
47%1.81
Over 10.5
34%2.29
Under 8.5
35%2.46
Under 9.5
53%1.88
Under 10.5
66%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.6 = 4.7
Over 3.5
63%-
Over 4.5
42%1.87
Under 3.5
37%-
Under 4.5
58%1.87

Match Events

11'K. Mboma
21'LuighiAssist: A. Ojeda
33'M. Miazga
36'K. Parks
50'O. Nwobodo
55'Luighi
60'M. Miazga INT. Hadebe out
60'E. Echenique INB. J. Ramirez Leon out
64'Luighi INS. Reid out
64'B. Traore INM. Jones out
72'O. Nwobodo INS. Gidi out
72'K. Denkey INT. Barlow out
74'N. Mercau
75'K. Parks INJ. Shore out
75'K. O'Toole INN. Cavallo out
81'A. Ojeda INTalles Magno out
82'S. Gidi
83'K. Smith INT. Anunga out
90+1'EvanderAssist: G. Valenzuela

Lineups

FC Cincinnati
3-5-2Coach: Pat Noonan
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Coach: Pascal Jansen
Avg rating6.98
Avg rating6.61
Roman Celentano8.518R. Celentano
Miles Robinson7.212M. Robinson
Matt Miazga6.621M. Miazga
Kyle Smith6.924K. Smith
Pavel Bucha6.620P. Bucha
Kenji Mboma Dem7.617K. Mboma Dem
Obinna Nwobodo6.75O. Nwobodo
Gerardo Valenzuela7.322G. Valenzuela
Ender Echenique6.766E. Echenique
Kévin Denkey6.29K. Denkey
EvanderC8.310Evander
Matthew FreeseC6.349M. Freese
Tayvon Gray6.324T. Gray
James Sands6.56J. Sands
Raul Gustavo6.734R. Gustavo
Kevin O'Toole6.222K. O'Toole
Keaton Parks7.255K. Parks
Andrés Perea6.58A. Perea
Agustin Ojeda7.026A. Ojeda
Nicolás Fernández7.37N. Fernández
Bénie Traoré6.39B. Traoré
Luighi Hanri7.320L. Hanri

FC Cincinnati Substitutes

15Teenage Hadebe60'for M. Miazga6.5
29Bryan Ramirez60'for E. Echenique6.3
11Samuel Gidi72'for O. Nwobodo82'7.0
16Tom Barlow72'for K. Denkey6.5
27Tah Anunga83'for K. Smith6.7
13Evan Louro
4Nick Hagglund
2Alvas Powell
99Ayoub Jabbari

New York City FC Substitutes

99Seymour Garfield-Reid64'for Luighi6.5
88Malachi Jones64'for B. Traore6.2
2Nico Cavallo75'for K. O'Toole6.2
32Jonathan Shore75'for K. Parks6.3
11Talles Magno81'for A. Ojeda6.9
30Tomás Romero
23Max Murray
35Mitja Ilenič
15Kevin Pierre

Match Stats

FC CincinnatiNew York City FC
56%Ball Possession44%
2Corner Kicks5
3Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots16
6Shots on Goal8
7Shots off Goal4
9Shots Inside Box11
5Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots4
10Fouls9
1Offsides0
7Goalkeeper Saves4
550Total Passes421
484Passes Accurate349
88%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
New York City FCNew York City FC
1592Elo Rating 1571
1.57Attack 0.80
1.10Defense 1.41
44%Hit Rate 0%
18.1Shots per Game 12.8
6.2Shots on Target 4.2
5.9Corners per Game 5.7
2.4Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.83 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.5 in first half)
New York City FCNew York City FC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati4Wins · 40%
Draws220%
New York City FCNew York City FC4Wins · 40%
2.8Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer23/04/2026
New York City FCFC Cincinnati
44
Major League Soccer24/08/2025
FC CincinnatiNew York City FC
01
Major League Soccer04/05/2025
New York City FCFC Cincinnati
10
Major League Soccer09/11/2024
FC CincinnatiNew York City FC
5060
Major League Soccer02/11/2024
New York City FCFC Cincinnati
31
Major League Soccer28/10/2024
FC CincinnatiNew York City FC
10
Major League Soccer03/10/2024
New York City FCFC Cincinnati
32
Major League Soccer24/03/2024
FC CincinnatiNew York City FC
10
Major League Soccer27/08/2023
FC CincinnatiNew York City FC
30
Major League Soccer01/06/2023
New York City FCFC Cincinnati
13

Recent Form

FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
6W2D2L
16/08/2026
Orlando City SCFC Cincinnati
11
D
12/08/2026
FC CincinnatiAtlas
12
L
08/08/2026
FC CincinnatiU.N.A.M. - Pumas
20
W
05/08/2026
FC CincinnatiCF Pachuca
31
W
02/08/2026
FC CincinnatiSan Jose Earthquakes
42
W
26/07/2026
Columbus CrewFC Cincinnati
21
L
23/07/2026
FC CincinnatiVancouver Whitecaps
43
W
11/07/2026
FC CincinnatiBurnley
31
W
24/05/2026
FC CincinnatiOrlando City SC
62
W
17/05/2026
San DiegoFC Cincinnati
33
D
New York City FCNew York City FC
3W2D5L
17/08/2026
New York City FCPhiladelphia Union
23
L
14/08/2026
New York City FCNecaxa
12
L
10/08/2026
Cruz AzulNew York City FC
21
L
07/08/2026
New York City FCSantos Laguna
20
W
01/08/2026
New York City FCToronto FC
11
D
26/07/2026
New York City FCChicago Fire
31
W
23/07/2026
Columbus CrewNew York City FC
12
W
24/05/2026
Nashville SCNew York City FC
21
L
21/05/2026
Columbus CrewNew York City FC
10
L
17/05/2026
New York Red BullsNew York City FC
11
D

Referee Profile

F. Bazakos99 matches

4.18Cards per match
4.07Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

F. Bazakos4.18
Other referees4.33

4.18 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.33).

Cards come from 96 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC32218366:23+4371DWDWW
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution321841054:44+1058WWWWL
3Inter MiamiInter Miami321511675:55+2056DLWWW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire321571057:48+952DWLLW
5CharlotteCharlotte321481059:48+1150WLDLW
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union321381162:50+1247DLDWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC321271362:74-1243DDWDW
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3211101166:73-743DWWLL
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew321251552:49+341WWWWL
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls321161543:59-1639LWLLW
11Toronto FCToronto FC329121150:60-1039WLWDW
12New York City FCNew York City FC329111247:44+338WDDLL
13DC UnitedDC United327121339:57-1833LLLLW
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC32861840:56-1630LLLWL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal32671936:66-3025LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3266:2371
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3254:4458
3Inter MiamiInter Miami3275:5556
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3257:4852
5CharlotteCharlotte3259:4850
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3262:5047
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3262:7443
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3266:7343
9Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3252:4941
10New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3243:5939
11Toronto FCToronto FC3250:6039
12New York City FCNew York City FC3247:4438
13DC UnitedDC United3239:5733
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3240:5630
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3236:6625
Promotion

About the FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC forecast

The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

FC Cincinnati and New York City FC in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, FC Cincinnati are 8th and New York City FC 12th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: FC Cincinnati 66-73, New York City FC 47-44. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.