Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction

Lumen Field, Seattle·Armando Villarrea, USA 17/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
64%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.52
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-2.1%
Seattle Sounders Rest
4 days
Vancouver Whitecaps Rest
5 days

Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps: the result in context

Vancouver Whitecaps beat Seattle Sounders 2-0 in the Major League Soccer on 17 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Referee Armando Villarrea averages 3.59 cards a game, 0.78 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
34%3.62
X
25%3.77
2
41%1.93
Double Chance
1X
59%1.84
X2
66%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%1.52
No
36%2.38
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.53 + 1.44 = 2.97
Over 1.5
83%1.17
Over 2.5
62%1.57
Over 3.5
37%2.40
Under 1.5
17%4.80
Under 2.5
38%2.35
Under 3.5
63%1.53
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.9 + 5 = 8.9
Over 8.5
51%1.46
Over 9.5
44%1.73
Over 10.5
32%2.27
Under 8.5
49%2.57
Under 9.5
56%1.95
Under 10.5
68%1.58
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.3 = 4.5
Over 3.5
61%1.54
Over 4.5
42%1.88
Under 3.5
39%2.47
Under 4.5
58%1.90

Match Events

18'J. Badwal INR. Elloumi out
36'J. Ferreira INS. Gomez out
57'J. Ragen
58'S. Brunell INA. Lopez out
58'C. Sabaly INR. Gauld out
66'R. Priso INT. Blackmon out
73'D. Musovski INO. De Rosario out
73'K. Kossa-Rienzi INKim Kee-Hee out
76'Nouhou
77'R. ElloumiAssist: E. Sabbi
82'T. MullerAssist: O. Larraz
85'A. Roldan INC. Gaffney out
86'E. Sabbi INN. Djordjevic out
86'P. Rothrock

Lineups

Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1Coach: Brian Schmetzer
Vancouver Whitecaps
4-2-3-1Coach: Jesper Sorensen
Avg rating6.69
Avg rating7.10
A. Thomas7.326A. Thomas
K. Kossa-Rienzi7.085K. Kossa-Rienzi
A. Roldan6.216A. Roldan
J. Ragen6.525J. Ragen
Nouhou7.25Nouhou
S. Brunell6.937S. Brunell
P. Kingston7.245P. Kingston
J. Ferreira6.79J. Ferreira
A. RusnakC6.211A. Rusnak
P. Rothrock7.314P. Rothrock
D. Musovski6.919D. Musovski
Y. Takaoka6.91Y. Takaoka
E. Ocampo7.218E. Ocampo
M. Laborda7.52M. Laborda
R. Priso7.76R. Priso
T. Johnson7.928T. Johnson
O. Larraz7.58O. Larraz
A. Cubas6.920A. Cubas
J. Badwal6.759J. Badwal
T. MullerC8.013T. Muller
C. Sabaly6.67C. Sabaly
E. Sabbi6.911E. Sabbi

Seattle Sounders Substitutes

24S. Frei
20Kim Kee-Hee73'for K. Kossa-Rienzi6.2
35A. Lopez58'for S. Brunell6.3
4R. Sailor
39S. Hawkins
84C. Gaffney85'for A. Roldan6.7
32X. Gnaulati
95O. De Rosario73'for D. Musovski6.2
90S. Gomez36'for J. Ferreira6.2

Vancouver Whitecaps Substitutes

32I. Boehmer
33T. Blackmon66'for R. Priso6.9
29M. Gherasimencov
3S. Adekugbe
41N. Djordjevic86'for E. Sabbi6.6
25R. Gauld58'for C. Sabaly6.6
97L. MacKenzie
26J. Ngando
19R. Elloumi18'for J. Badwal77'6.6

Match Stats

Seattle SoundersVancouver Whitecaps
43%Ball Possession57%
1Corner Kicks8
3Yellow Cards0
5Total Shots19
0Shots on Goal6
3Shots off Goal5
5Shots Inside Box13
0Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots8
16Fouls11
2Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves0
413Total Passes539
334Passes Accurate462
81%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders
Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps
1600Elo Rating 1668
1.08Attack 1.61
1.91Defense 2.17
14%Hit Rate 46%
16.0Shots per Game 12.2
4.9Shots on Target 4.2
6.9Corners per Game 6.0
1.2Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.97 goals
🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.1 in first half)
Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders4Wins · 40%
Draws330%
Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3Wins · 30%
2.7Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

CONCACAF Champions League19/03/2026
Seattle SoundersVancouver Whitecaps
21
CONCACAF Champions League13/03/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
03
Major League Soccer28/09/2025
Seattle SoundersVancouver Whitecaps
22
Major League Soccer09/06/2025
Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
30
Major League Soccer03/10/2024
Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
03
Major League Soccer19/05/2024
Seattle SoundersVancouver Whitecaps
11
Major League Soccer21/04/2024
Seattle SoundersVancouver Whitecaps
02
Major League Soccer08/10/2023
Seattle SoundersVancouver Whitecaps
00
Major League Soccer09/07/2023
Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
23
Major League Soccer21/05/2023
Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
20

Recent Form

Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders
2W0D8L
13/08/2026
Seattle SoundersGuadalajara Chivas
12
L
09/08/2026
Seattle SoundersClub Queretaro
30
W
06/08/2026
TolucaSeattle Sounders
30
L
02/08/2026
Portland TimbersSeattle Sounders
21
L
26/07/2026
Philadelphia UnionSeattle Sounders
10
L
23/07/2026
AustinSeattle Sounders
31
L
17/07/2026
Seattle SoundersPortland Timbers
15
L
25/05/2026
Los Angeles FCSeattle Sounders
10
L
17/05/2026
Seattle SoundersLos Angeles Galaxy
02
L
14/05/2026
Seattle SoundersSan Jose Earthquakes
32
W
Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps
2W3D5L
12/08/2026
Tigres UANLVancouver Whitecaps
5141
L
08/08/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsFC Juarez
13
L
05/08/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsAtlante FC
01
L
02/08/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsLos Angeles FC
11
D
26/07/2026
Minnesota United FCVancouver Whitecaps
00
D
23/07/2026
FC CincinnatiVancouver Whitecaps
43
L
14/07/2026
Cavalry FCVancouver Whitecaps
11
D
09/07/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsCavalry FC
41
W
24/05/2026
San DiegoVancouver Whitecaps
24
W
17/05/2026
Houston DynamoVancouver Whitecaps
10
L

Referee Profile

Armando Villarrea17 matches

3.59Cards per match
3.47Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
22.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Armando Villarrea3.59
Other referees4.37

3.59 cards a match, 0.78 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.37).

Cards come from 17 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps33187872:34+3861WWLWD
2FC DallasFC Dallas331510859:50+955DLWDW
3San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes331410956:48+852WDLDD
4St. Louis CitySt. Louis City331491058:48+1051LLLLD
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo331491043:42+151LWDDD
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3312111051:38+1347LDDWD
7Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3311111149:55-644WDDWL
8Portland TimbersPortland Timbers331271460:61-143WWWDL
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids331271446:47-143LDWDD
10Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3311101242:45-343LLDDL
11Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake331261551:51042LWWWD
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3310111253:57-441WWDWD
13San DiegoSan Diego339111357:62-538WLDDD
14AustinAustin338101542:63-2134LLWLL
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City33652239:81-4223DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3372:3461
2FC DallasFC Dallas3359:5055
3San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3356:4852
4St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3358:4851
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3343:4251
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3351:3847
7Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3349:5544
8Portland TimbersPortland Timbers3360:6143
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids3346:4743
10Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3342:4543
11Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3351:5142
12Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3353:5741
13San DiegoSan Diego3357:6238
14AustinAustin3342:6334
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City3339:8123
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About the Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps forecast

As a derby, this Major League Soccer meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Seattle Sounders and Vancouver Whitecaps in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, Vancouver Whitecaps are 1st and Seattle Sounders 10th, 18 points apart. League goal record so far: Seattle Sounders 42-45, Vancouver Whitecaps 72-34. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.