Cruz Azul vs New York City FC Prediction

Cruz Azul
2-1
Finished
HT 1-1
New York City FC
Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison·Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle, Mexico 10/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.0 / 10
Value Analysis
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel49%SurpriseMediumGap+13.0%
Cruz Azul Rest
2 days
New York City FC Rest
3 days

Cruz Azul vs New York City FC: the result in context

Cruz Azul beat New York City FC 2-1 in the Leagues Cup on 10 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle averages 5.13 cards a game, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%2.30
X
20%3.42
2
22%2.85
Double Chance
1X
77%1.40
X2
42%1.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.58
No
56%2.22
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1 = 2.20
Over 1.5
64%1.22
Over 2.5
39%1.74
Over 3.5
19%2.80
Under 1.5
36%4.00
Under 2.5
61%2.06
Under 3.5
81%1.40
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

35'A. PalavecinoAssist: E. Lira
36'M. Freese
37'N. Cavallo
45+1'M. MurrayAssist: N. Mercau
50'T. Gray
53'G. Piovi
59'A. Ojeda INM. Jones out
59'N. Cavallo INK. O'Toole out
59'T. Gray INM. Ilenic out
76'G. Fernandez INN. Ibanez out
76'J. Shore INB. Traore out
76'Talles Magno INLuighi out
78'J. ParadelaAssist: C. Rodriguez
82'A. Palavecino INL. Romero out
82'N. Mercau
90'C. Rodriguez INC. Jimenez out
90+5'M. Jones

Lineups

Cruz Azul
5-3-2Coach: Joel Huiqui
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Coach: Pascal Jansen
Avg rating7.12
Avg rating6.68
Kevin Mier6.223K. Mier
Jeremy Márquez7.216J. Márquez
Willer Ditta6.94W. Ditta
Gonzalo Piovi7.733G. Piovi
Jesús Orozco6.55J. Orozco
Omar Campos6.93O. Campos
Agustín Palavecino7.98A. Palavecino
Erik LiraC7.56E. Lira
Carlos Rodríguez7.019C. Rodríguez
José Paradela8.920J. Paradela
Gabriel Fernández6.721G. Fernández
Matthew FreeseC6.349M. Freese
Tayvon Gray6.524T. Gray
Max Murray7.923M. Murray
James Sands6.36J. Sands
Nico Cavallo6.32N. Cavallo
Jonathan Shore7.532J. Shore
Andrés Perea6.98A. Perea
Agustin Ojeda6.326A. Ojeda
Nicolás Fernández7.57N. Fernández
Hannes Wolf5.917H. Wolf
Talles Magno6.711T. Magno

Cruz Azul Substitutes

7Nicolás Ibáñez76'for G. Fernandez6.5
18Luka Romero82'for A. Palavecino6.6
32Cristian Jiménez90'for C. Rodriguez
30Emmanuel Ochoa
1Andrés Gudiño
49Josué Díaz
12Alan Montes
66Javier Suárez
67Karol Velázquez
55Rogelio González
14Juan Calero

New York City FC Substitutes

22Kevin O'Toole59'for N. Cavallo6.7
35Mitja Ilenič59'for T. Gray6.9
88Malachi Jones59'for A. Ojeda90+5'6.6
9Bénie Traoré76'for J. Shore6.2
20Luighi Hanri76'for Talles Magno6.3
18Gregory Ranjitsingh
30Tomás Romero
44João Loiola
29Máximo Carrizo
15Kevin Pierre
55Keaton Parks
99Seymour Garfield-Reid

Match Stats

Cruz AzulNew York City FC
59%Ball Possession41%
4Corner Kicks0
1Yellow Cards5
20Total Shots8
6Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal3
8Shots Inside Box2
12Shots Outside Box6
7Blocked Shots2
12Fouls8
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves4
534Total Passes380
459Passes Accurate325
86%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Cruz AzulCruz Azul
New York City FCNew York City FC
1781Elo Rating 1586
3.16Attack 1.33
1.58Defense 1.46
69%Hit Rate 27%
16.3Shots per Game 13.4
6.8Shots on Target 5.5
5.4Corners per Game 6.0
1.9Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+195 Elo
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Cruz AzulCruz Azul
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.1 vs 1.1 in second half)
New York City FCNew York City FC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.4 in first half)

Recent Form

Cruz AzulCruz Azul
6W3D1L
07/08/2026
Cruz AzulPhiladelphia Union
10
W
02/08/2026
Cruz AzulAtlante FC
23
L
26/07/2026
TolucaCruz Azul
13
W
22/07/2026
Cruz AzulPuebla
21
W
18/07/2026
Atletico San LuisCruz Azul
23
W
05/07/2026
MonarcasCruz Azul
33
D
25/05/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasCruz Azul
12
W
22/05/2026
Cruz AzulU.N.A.M. - Pumas
00
D
17/05/2026
Guadalajara ChivasCruz Azul
12
W
14/05/2026
Cruz AzulGuadalajara Chivas
22
D
New York City FCNew York City FC
5W2D3L
07/08/2026
New York City FCSantos Laguna
20
W
01/08/2026
New York City FCToronto FC
11
D
26/07/2026
New York City FCChicago Fire
31
W
23/07/2026
Columbus CrewNew York City FC
12
W
24/05/2026
Nashville SCNew York City FC
21
L
21/05/2026
Columbus CrewNew York City FC
10
L
17/05/2026
New York Red BullsNew York City FC
11
D
14/05/2026
CharlotteNew York City FC
01
W
10/05/2026
New York City FCColumbus Crew
30
W
03/05/2026
New York City FCDC United
02
L

Referee Profile

Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle97 matches

5.13Cards per match
4.83Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle5.13
Other referees4.63

5.13 cards a match, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.63).

Cards come from 63 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

About the Cruz Azul vs New York City FC forecast

The forecasts for this Leagues Cup match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Leagues Cup

More Leagues Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the Leagues Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Cruz Azul have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Cruz Azul and New York City FC have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.