Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce Prediction

Lech Poznan
6-1
Finished
HT 4-0
Korona Kielce
Stadion Miejski, Poznan·Lukasz Kuzma 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.54
SignalSOLIDModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+1.8%
Lech Poznan Rest
2 days
Korona Kielce Rest
7 days

Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce: the result in context

Lech Poznan beat Korona Kielce 6-1 in the Ekstraklasa on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Lech Poznan have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Korona Kielce tend to win more corners, 7.4 a game to 4.8 for Lech Poznan.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.57
X
22%4.20
2
18%5.11
Double Chance
1X
82%1.14
X2
40%2.34
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.60
No
42%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.23 + 0.92 = 3.15
Over 1.5
82%1.16
Over 2.5
63%1.54
Over 3.5
41%2.36
Under 1.5
18%4.78
Under 2.5
37%2.35
Under 3.5
59%1.54
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.5 + 4.1 = 10.5
Over 8.5
70%1.31
Over 9.5
59%1.57
Over 10.5
48%1.95
Under 8.5
30%2.92
Under 9.5
41%2.21
Under 10.5
52%1.77
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 2.1 = 3.5
Over 3.5
47%-
Over 4.5
28%-
Under 3.5
53%-
Under 4.5
72%-

Match Events

4'Patrick WalemarkAssist: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
6'Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoAssist: Joel Pereira
23'Mikael IshakAssist: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
29'Ondrej Lingr INMartin Remacle out
45'kamil jakubczyk INSimon Gustafsson out
45'Marcel·Pieczek INKonrad Matuszewski out
45'Michael Ameyaw INMorgan Faßbender out
45+2'Radosław MurawskiPersistent infringement
45+4'Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoAssist: Mikael Ishak
55'Mikael IshakAssist: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
57'Camilo MenaAssist: Wiktor Długosz
58'Patrick Walemark INDaniel Håkans out
58'Terry Yegbe INHubert Janyszka out
58'Radosław Murawski INGustav Berggren out
61'Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoDissent
62'Mariusz Stępiński INDaniel Bak out
68'Pablo Rodriguez Delgado INFilip Jagiełło out
72'Daniel BakFoul
76'Mikael Ishak INY. Agnero out
85'Slobodan RubezicFoul
90'Morgan FaßbenderFoul
90+1'Y. AgneroAssist: Michal Gurgul

Lineups

Lech Poznan
4-2-3-1Coach: N. Frederiksen
Korona Kielce
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Zielinski
Avg rating7.21
Avg rating6.06
M. Lis7.21M. Lis
Joel Pereira7.12J. Pereira
M. Skrzypczak7.172M. Skrzypczak
T. Yegbe6.859T. Yegbe
M. Gurgul7.515M. Gurgul
R. Murawski6.222R. Murawski
A. Kozubal6.543A. Kozubal
P. Wålemark7.610P. Wålemark
Pablo Rodríguez9.421P. Rodríguez
L. Palma6.477L. Palma
M. Ishak9.69M. Ishak
X. Dziekoński5.31X. Dziekoński
W. Długosz5.471W. Długosz
S. Rubežić5.823S. Rubežić
A. Mosór6.22A. Mosór
M. Pięczek5.46M. Pięczek
Kamil Jakubczyk5.535K. Jakubczyk
P. Hellebrand6.718P. Hellebrand
C. Mena8.030C. Mena
O. Lingr5.932O. Lingr
M. Ameyaw6.219M. Ameyaw
M. Stępiński6.514M. Stępiński

Lech Poznan Substitutes

24F. Jagiełło68'for Pablo Rodriguez Delgado6.4
55Piotr Bartczak
90H. Janyszka58'for Terry Yegbe6.9
11D. Håkans58'for Patrick Walemark6.6
5G. Berggren58'for Radosław Murawski6.9
14L. Bengtsson
33M. Pruchniewski
7Y. Agnero76'for Mikael Ishak90+1'7.3

Korona Kielce Substitutes

86Simon Gustafson45'for kamil jakubczyk5.8
87R. Mamla
11K. Matuszewski45'for Marcel·Pieczek5.6
10Nono
8M. Remacle29'for Ondrej Lingr6.1
24B. Smolarczyk
44K. Sotiriou
99Daniel Bak62'for Mariusz Stępiński72'6.0
22M. Faßbender45'for Michael Ameyaw90'6.7
67N. Barczak
9S. Davidović

Match Stats

Lech PoznanKorona Kielce
60%Ball Possession40%
5Corner Kicks7
2Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots15
6Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal7
10Shots Inside Box7
4Shots Outside Box8
3Blocked Shots3
13Fouls13
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves0
530Total Passes340
466Passes Accurate281
13Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

Lech PoznanLech Poznan
Korona KielceKorona Kielce
1747Elo Rating 1560
3.01Attack 1.00
1.42Defense 0.62
54%Hit Rate 44%
15.8Shots per Game 15.0
5.7Shots on Target 5.3
4.8Corners per Game 7.4
1.5Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+187 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.15 goals
📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Lech PoznanLech Poznan
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Korona KielceKorona Kielce
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

Lech PoznanLech Poznan6Wins · 75%
Draws113%
Korona KielceKorona Kielce1Wins · 12%
3.0Avg Goals
63%Both teams scored5 of 8
63%3+ goals5 of 8

Previous meetings

Ekstraklasa22/02/2026
Korona KielceLech Poznan
12
Ekstraklasa16/08/2025
Lech PoznanKorona Kielce
11
Ekstraklasa05/04/2025
Lech PoznanKorona Kielce
20
Ekstraklasa29/09/2024
Korona KielceLech Poznan
23
Ekstraklasa25/05/2024
Lech PoznanKorona Kielce
12
Ekstraklasa02/12/2023
Korona KielceLech Poznan
01
Ekstraklasa19/05/2023
Korona KielceLech Poznan
03
Ekstraklasa06/11/2022
Lech PoznanKorona Kielce
32

Referee Profile

Lukasz Kuzma152 matches

4.28Cards per match
4.11Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
25.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Lukasz Kuzma4.28
Other referees4.26

4.28 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.26).

Cards come from 101 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Lech PoznanLech Poznan1191129:10+1928WWWWL
2Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1283121:11+1027DDWDW
3Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1173119:9+1024WWWWW
4Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1265123:11+1223LDWWD
5Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1263319:15+421WDLWW
6Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1262422:18+420WDWLW
7Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1254315:15019DWLLW
8GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1260622:17+518LLWWW
9Korona KielceKorona Kielce1253414:18-418WLLWL
10JagielloniaJagiellonia1150614:17-315WLLLL
11Wisla PlockWisla Plock1142510:16-614LWLWW
12Motor LublinMotor Lublin1234517:21-413DWWDL
13Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1233614:19-512LDWLL
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1218315:16-111DDLDD
15Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1223716:22-69WLLLL
16Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1222816:23-78LLLWD
17Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom1222812:28-168LLLLL
18Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa12201016:28-126LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Lech PoznanLech Poznan1129:1028
2Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1221:1127
3Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1119:924
4Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1223:1123
5Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1219:1521
6Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1222:1820
7Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1215:1519
8GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1222:1718
9Korona KielceKorona Kielce1214:1818
10JagielloniaJagiellonia1114:1715
11Wisla PlockWisla Plock1110:1614
12Motor LublinMotor Lublin1217:2113
13Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1214:1912
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1215:1611
15Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1216:229
16Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1216:238
17Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom1212:288
18Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa1216:286
Relegation

About the Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce forecast

The forecasts for this Ekstraklasa match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce in the Ekstraklasa table

In the Ekstraklasa table, Lech Poznan are 1st and Korona Kielce 9th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: Lech Poznan 29-10, Korona Kielce 14-18. The full standings are on the Ekstraklasa Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Lech Poznan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.