Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction

Machida GION Stadium, Tokyo·Jumpei Iida 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.20
SignalHIGHModel58%SurpriseHighGap-4.5%
Machida Zelvia Rest
2 days
Avispa Fukuoka Rest
3 days

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: result, form and history

Machida Zelvia beat Avispa Fukuoka 3-0 in the J1 League on 18 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Machida Zelvia had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Avispa Fukuoka.

Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 1.8 goals a game across 4 matches.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
55%1.85
X
26%3.48
2
19%4.22
Double Chance
1X
81%1.20
X2
45%1.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.89
No
49%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.97 + 0.9 = 2.87
Over 1.5
73%1.34
Over 2.5
49%2.08
Over 3.5
27%3.63
Under 1.5
27%2.98
Under 2.5
51%1.73
Under 3.5
73%1.24
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

22'Tete YengiAssist: Henry Heroki Mochizuki
45'Werik Popo INYuji Kitajima out
54'Daihachi OkamuraFoul
60'Gen ShojiPersistent infringement
65'Tete Yengi INTakuma Nishimura out
68'Keiya Shiihashi INKokoro Maeda out
68'Masato Yuzawa INYu Hashimoto out
73'Hiroyuki Mae
76'Henry Heroki MochizukiAssist: Takahiro Akimoto
77'Koki Ogawa INMitchell Duke out
77'Neta Lavi INRyohei Shirasaki out
79'Masato Shigemi INShohei Takemoto out
86'Shu Morooka INAbdul Hanan Sani Brown out
86'Yuki Soma INKeiya Sento out
86'Daihachi Okamura INIbrahim Drešević out

Lineups

Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1Coach: G. Kuroda
Avispa Fukuoka
3-4-2-1Coach: S. Tsukahara
Avg rating7.09
Avg rating5.98
K. Tani6.91K. Tani
G. Shōji7.23G. Shōji
D. Okamura7.150D. Okamura
T. Ouwejan7.02T. Ouwejan
H. Mochizuki8.46H. Mochizuki
H. Mae8.216H. Mae
N. Lavi6.731N. Lavi
T. Akimoto7.733T. Akimoto
Koki Ogawa6.69K. Ogawa
Y. Soma6.37Y. Soma
T. Yengi7.999T. Yengi
Y. Obata6.124Y. Obata
T. Oka6.016T. Oka
M. Tashiro6.537M. Tashiro
Y. Tsujioka5.815Y. Tsujioka
M. Yuzawa5.82M. Yuzawa
K. Shiihashi5.434K. Shiihashi
T. Miki6.311T. Miki
Y. Maejima6.029Y. Maejima
M. Shigemi5.76M. Shigemi
S. Morooka5.513S. Morooka
Werik Popó6.69W. Popó

Machida Zelvia Substitutes

5I. Drešević86'for Daihachi Okamura7.0
15M. Duke77'for Koki Ogawa6.5
66Aki Koch
13T. Morita
20T. Nishimura65'for Tete Yengi6.4
8K. Sento86'for Yuki Soma6.8
23R. Shirasaki77'for Neta Lavi6.8
34Futa Tokumura
18H. Shimoda

Avispa Fukuoka Substitutes

32A. Sani Brown86'for Shu Morooka6.2
47Y. Hashimoto68'for Masato Yuzawa6.0
25Y. Kitajima45'for Werik Popo5.6
55K. Maeda68'for Keiya Shiihashi6.1
20K. Mikuni
38D. Miya
1T. Nagaishi
52Shohei Takemoto79'for Masato Shigemi5.9
33K. Yamawaki
5T. Kamijima

Match Stats

Machida ZelviaAvispa Fukuoka
52%Ball Possession48%
1Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards0
8Total Shots9
7Shots on Goal1
1Shots off Goal4
6Shots Inside Box7
2Shots Outside Box2
0Blocked Shots4
15Fouls9
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves4
478Total Passes429
394Passes Accurate330
82%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
1754Elo Rating 1423
1.88Attack 0.95
3.00Defense 0.68
77%Hit Rate 14%
17.0Shots per Game 11.3
6.9Shots on Target 2.7
4.8Corners per Game 3.9
0.9Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+331 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.87 goals
⚠️Home Rotation Risk60%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk60%

Game State Tendencies

Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.6 in first half)
Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1Wins · 25%
Draws375%
Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka0Wins · 0%
1.8Avg Goals
25%Both teams scored1 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

J1 League18/10/2025
Machida ZelviaAvispa Fukuoka
00
J1 League29/03/2025
Avispa FukuokaMachida Zelvia
22
J1 League14/09/2024
Avispa FukuokaMachida Zelvia
03
J1 League22/06/2024
Machida ZelviaAvispa Fukuoka
00

Recent Form

Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
7W2D1L
Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
3W1D6L
14/10/2026
Sagan TosuAvispa Fukuoka
21
L
10/10/2026
Avispa FukuokaFagiano Okayama
21
W
07/10/2026
Avispa FukuokaYokohama FC
01
L
29/09/2026
OsakaAvispa Fukuoka
1121
W
19/09/2026
Avispa FukuokaSanfrecce Hiroshima
01
L
12/09/2026
Shimizu S-pulseAvispa Fukuoka
10
L
05/09/2026
Avispa FukuokaMito Hollyhock
11
D
02/09/2026
Avispa FukuokaUrawa
23
L
29/08/2026
Kyoto SangaAvispa Fukuoka
21
L
26/08/2026
Avispa FukuokaVerspah Oita
5040
W

Referee Profile

Jumpei Iida150 matches

3.04Cards per match
2.95Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
24.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jumpei Iida3.04
Other referees2.72

3.04 cards a match, 0.32 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.72).

Cards come from 113 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC TokyoFC Tokyo1393131:8+2330WWDWW
2Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1392232:10+2229WWLWW
3Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1384130:10+2028DDWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1391329:19+1028WWDLW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1382321:12+926WDLWL
6KashimaKashima1372429:22+723WLDWW
7Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1364327:22+522LWWWL
8Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1356220:14+621WDDDD
9UrawaUrawa1370621:27-621LWWWL
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1351715:21-616LLWLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1342715:21-614LDDWW
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1335513:23-1014LDDLD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1342710:22-1214LLLDW
14Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1334617:23-613WDDLL
15V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1333716:21-512LLWLD
16Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1326514:21-712DDWDL
17Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy1325611:22-1111WWDLL
18JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1324715:24-910WDLDD
19Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1323812:25-139LLLLL
20Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka13211013:24-117LLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1FC TokyoFC Tokyo1331:830
2Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1332:1029
3Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1330:1028
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1329:1928
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1321:1226
6KashimaKashima1329:2223
7Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1327:2222
8Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1320:1421
9UrawaUrawa1321:2721
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1315:2116
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1315:2114
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1313:2314
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1310:2214
14Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1317:2313
15V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1316:2112
16Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1314:2112
17Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy1311:2211
18JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1315:2410
19Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1312:259
20Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1313:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League table

The table shows a wide gap: Machida Zelvia are 3rd in the J1 League, while Avispa Fukuoka sit 20th, 21 points behind. League goal record so far: Machida Zelvia 30-10, Avispa Fukuoka 13-24. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Machida Zelvia have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.